Coronavirus outbreak

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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
So august deaths are all counted in the "First Wave" tally? I just want to be clear on this before I read anyone's arguments!

Yes, that's one classification. Another would be earlier.

You're not going to get people to agree. Heck there were plenty of people saying there wouldn't be a second wave, or if there was it'd be small and so not really a wave.

The third peak reference is not really semantics, it's carefully said by mcwobble. We're lucky and got a vaccine slightly earlier than expected (in small numbers). A politician saying a third wave is problematic as it suggests ooh 'lockdown' and christmas coming, vaccine and all that it's going to disappear and then come back for a third wave and it inevitably surprising some out there.
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
I think there's a huge danger of a massive upsurge in January through to April.

Firstly, it's peak season for respiratory infections anyway.

Secondly, it'll be kicked of by our "Give granny a hug and a virus" policy at Christmas.

Thirdly, lockdown fatigue is well and truly upon us. "Fucj this, I've had enough" will drive more mixing.

Fourthly, as people get vaccinated, they'll tend to drop distancing

And finally, as that relaxation becomes more visible, everyone else will follow suit.

It's hard to see a way through this without several months with grim levels of casualties. "Great British Common Sense" seems to be our main hope...
 
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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
If (big IF) we get numbers right down by end of December, then there's a big upsurge in Jan, is that a 3rd wave? Or just the 2nd wave really "getting going"?

The second wave having a massive surge. Sadly numbers probably won't go down low enough in December to classify it as a separate wave. That's just not likely to happen.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
I caught a short covid-19 update from Tim Spector yesterday. He said that though the survey app is self-reporting it tracks well with the ONS figures (though, logically, it's the ONS doing the tracking because their figures are a few days behind the app's.) They're publishing these results in the Lancet today.

Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.

Added: Lancet link
 
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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Also, preliminary results from a vitamin supplement questionnaire, indicate that garlic has no benefit whatsoever, but multivitamins and vitamin D did show some slightly increased resistance to CV-19 in women. No benefit for men.
Multivitamins were missing from shelves of one pharmacy and three supermarkets I've visited in the last two weeks (three because Xmas pud fruit also in short supply this year). I take vitamins in winter due to another illness so I don't let them get too low before restocking, but they're not usually missing for more than one shop visit.

Could we go back to talking up bleach instead please? There is loads of that around.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Multivitamins were missing from shelves of one pharmacy and three supermarkets I've visited in the last two weeks (three because Xmas pud fruit also in short supply this year). I take vitamins in winter due to another illness so I don't let them get too low before restocking, but they're not usually missing for more than one shop visit.

Could we go back to talking up bleach instead please? There is loads of that around.
I was disappointed that vitamin D doesn't appear to help because I've recently added them to my daily pile of morning meds.

Lancet link (on the self-reporting app's relationship to ONS and others' data.)
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Vitamin D is something the BMA has recommended all adults take October -March in the UK for quite a while now.
This is the link: https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vitamins-reduce-covid-risk
 
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mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden
The law drafters saw that one coming: if it straddles a boundary, the whole property goes into the more restrictive tier.

Famously, there's a restaurant in Tydd Gote, or rather, half of a restaurant. The rest of it is over the county boundary. This used to have amusing consequences for alcohol licensing, but that's mostly a thing of the past now too. Of course, some smart buttock in Tier 3 South Holland wondered if they could exploit this for easier drinking in Tier 2 Fenland without technically leaving their village... nope!
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
And if your house is in Harrogate but your garden is in Leeds....https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uples-house-in-different-covid-tier-to-garden

It's a great story, but it's not difficult. They live in their house and not their garden. They are travelling to their garden from a tier 3 to a tier 2 area so the rules carry with them. They aren't allowed to meet people and guardian knows that perfectly well.

If the areas were divided into smaller and smaller areas they'd be way more of the villages cut in half stories.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
It's a great story, but it's not difficult. They live in their house and not their garden. They are travelling to their garden from a tier 3 to a tier 2 area so the rules carry with them. [...]
Surely their whole house and garden is one "place" in the regulations, because that's why we were allowed unrestrictedly into our gardens during lockdown?

Complete non-story. It would be more of a story if their allotment was in Tier 2, but even then, for the reasons you give, it's not much of one. Newspaper shoot stirring is not helpful. There's enough examples of councils advertising the restrictions incorrectly (Norfolk's council adverts have so far implied that takeaway alcohol sales aren't allowed, that 6 people can't sit outside a cafe, that only "essential exercise" is allowed, and some other goofs I forget), that they could have plenty to criticise without bothering with non-stories like this.
 

Adam4868

Legendary Member
The entrance is in Tier 3 so a fuss over nothing.

A friend's house has half in Northern Ireland and half in the Republic: it depends which door you go in / come out of.
All my partners family live on the invisible border,although I'd change the door for tunnel 😁
 
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