Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[SkipdiverJohn]

So a lot tougher than England and there are still a lot of areas that are unclear, but that's Mark Drakeford for you

Drakeford is an idiot. One of those typical politicians who has got an over-inflated idea of his own importance and ability. Do what I do with the sort of shite that such politicians come out with. Just ignore it completely.

 

[PaulB]

Pendle then......

So encouraged by my running club members - one of whom lives in the village - I blanked the no-go signs yesterday and went through anyway. No objections raised BUT there's a sign saying 'NHS workers live here, do not approach'! Now my wife works on the front line of the front line, if anyone suggested we put something like that up near our house, she'd laugh in their faces. I did go slower than usual down the long straight hill into the village despite there being no cars at all, just in case a local had 'accidentally' dropped some tacks or tied a rope across the road or something! https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/4829918153

 

[silva]

Without governments rules people wouldn't be hampered to avoid infection.
For ex I do everything by bike so have to transport everything with it too, and thus I'm not the saturday for the entire week or 1st week of the month for the entire month shopper. I never need/take a shopping cart. Now they force me to take one, and on top of that, they ration the carts, so like just a half dozen carts get touched by everybody.
That's what governments "measures" bring: precisely what they are claimed to avoid.

Last time I checked nobody wanted the flu. Anybody here that wants (to spread) the flu?
I don't need a government / force, really
Yet, I have since a month a harder time to avoid infection, due to their... measures.
Already at the very beginning of the story, mid march. Friday, after work, I intended to buy bread for the weekend and monday. First supermarket: no bread. It was just at the entry door so I was quick enough to back up to get out. Next supermarket: surprise, same story. But I started to notice something else: on a friday usually more people in the supermarkets, but then it was like overcrowded. About "as worse" as a sunny saturday afternoon. But I didn't take the time to think about, jumped on my bike to a nearby city. In the first supermarket there, I first started to realize something was going on. It wasn't just crowded, it was insane, alike they had thrown money on the ground and everybody wanting to grab it. Also, the amount garbage outside and inside the supermarket.. there are always some empty boxes there, but it was far beyond.
I again had to wrestle (yea haha) through the crowd, to again find no bread, and wrestle back out.

Then, the next supermarket, closer to the cities center. It was surrealistic. Already on the parking lot, piles of boxes, couldn't even find a place to stall my bike, had to roll a container against the wall. Inside the supermarket it was a ravage. Broken window at the entry, again empty boxes, but now totally torn apart. Products content (sugar, coffee, liquids) scattered around. When passing the counters, I finally became aware what was going on, personell of the supermarket talked to eachother, one saying that upon opening that morning, an whole crowd people was awaiting to flood the supermarket, wrecking everything on its path.
The reason: the evening before, the government had announced forced closure of shops. The biggest idiot in the world knows then that people gonna hampster, and that was what happened. Legalized force, so called to prevent people concentrations, causing the precisely that.

I already wasn't a government fan before, but now they've done completely for me.

Afterwards, I decided to look up flu data, in order to give it all a context, a base to form an opinion. If I look at history, all flu death peaks correlate with government measures, most if not all not even directly relevant. For ex, the most severe pandemic in human recorded history was the flu of 1918-1919. 50-100 million people died, a multiply of the worldwar I fighting deaths. But notably: the biggest contaminations and death tolls were on government organized people concentrations: soldiers recruitment camps, ship transports and other warfare related. So one could easily blame governments that massive death toll. And to take into account: the world population was back then just a fraction of nowadays.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Beautiful Daughter has just been sent two cotton face masks with pretty flowers, courtesy of some friends in the next village, so she's set up for next week at least.

 

[Andy in Germany]

I'm hoping someone will make a face mask with a Welsh flag: if nothing else it'll be a conversation starter for my clients.

 

[marinyork]

I'm hoping someone will make a face mask with a Welsh flag: if nothing else it'll be a conversation starter for my clients.

I'm sure. There are companies out there that are marketing (surgical mask not ffp1/2/3s) funky designs or design your own. I've had quite a few emails (don't know why lol).

 

[Andy in Germany]

I'm sure. There are companies out there that are marketing (surgical mask not ffp1/2/3s) funky designs or design your own. I've had quite a few emails (don't know why lol).

The protected workshop I'm going to work at may well start making them: they already have a sewing section which makes sails for toy boats: as these are predominantly sold to tourists I suspect they'll be changing their products a bit this year.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Beautiful Wife reports the Father-in-Law's surgery in Japan has had its first corona positive patient. They reported this straight away and the health department immediately isolated and tested the receptionist, nurse and doctor who dealt with them: patients are already isolated on the premises so they had no contact with the infected person.

 

[silva]

The protected workshop I'm going to work at may well start making them: they already have a sewing section which makes sails for toy boats: as these are predominantly sold to tourists I suspect they'll be changing their products a bit this year.

Nearly all epidemics go as fast as they come. Look at the spanish flu on the year timeline. Look at the NZ trooptransport https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294590/ on the week timeline.

So I guess it will be a typical government story: first shortage then excess (vice versa also possible).
Maybe they can sew 2 together, to sell as bikini's for summer 2020 haha.

 

[Andy in Germany]

It comes down to how many are getting tested and who is getting tested. In Germany, testing is more widespread, so virus carriers who are not seriously ill are being identified in large numbers. Because they aren't that ill, proportionally less of them die.
In the UK, generally only those who have had a bad enough dose of virus to put them in hospital are being tested and identified, and more die because they are in a worse state.

You say that as if it's a good thing: it could also mean that Germany is being more successful in combating the virus because they are following WHO guidelines.

The true infection rate in the UK probably runs to several millions, but most have never been positively identified as having the virus.

It could also mean that the UK is under reporting the number of deaths and cases, because people not tested or dying in a hospital aren't being recoorded as dying from Corona. This doesn't fill me with confidence.

I wouldn't be too smug about the relatively low number of deaths in Germany if I were you. Deaths can lag infections for several reasons, and when things start to catch up. Germany's rate could soar like it has in many other places.

I've had a look and I don't see that in other countries: there something of a lag as you describe but I don't see it "soaring" in comparison to the numbers of cases. Even with China and Iran, both cases and deaths spike relatively early and then decline slowly, but I may have missed somewhere.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Nearly all epidemics go as fast as they come. Look at the spanish flu on the year timeline. Look at the NZ trooptransport https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294590/ on the week timeline.

I'm not sure an isolated instance with a tiny sample on one troop ship a century ago can be used to predict how a very different virus will react in various countries today.

There isn't a shortage locally as far as I know, but the state government has warned that masks may be mandatory in public spaces like supermarkets and transport for about two years, so there's a market for reusable masks opening up and tiny companies are starting to make them: I just got one from a clothing alterations shop.

Maybe they can sew 2 together, to sell as bikini's for summer 2020 haha.

This is actually the exact reverse of how some face mask manufacturers began: they were making lingerie and realised they could use the "form" in another situation.

 

[Rickshaw Phil]

Mod note:

For the benefit of members just joining this conversation, can I remind you that we are not doing conspiracy theories, or misinformation on CycleChat.

If you want to make claims about covid19 please back them up with a reputable source. I'm really not sure what an article about the spread of a different illness (covid19 is not an influenza as far as I understand) in the confined space of a troop ship is meant to prove.

Edit: Actually I see that to those in the field of study, the rate of infection, deaths and recovery would be important information for that illness. Otherwise, it shows that once everyone on board had either died, recovered or shown a natural immunity, the outbreak ended......... well, no shoot Sherlock.

 

[Smokin Joe]

An interesting take on the situation, particularly with regard to care home deaths -

https://thecritic.co.uk/its-hurting-but-its-just-not-working/

 

[SpokeyDokey]

These days I am a not particularly fast cyclist who enjoys long rides and cafe stops.
Obviously the cafe stops are now not a thing so I do rides from my home of a length I would usually do before stopping to stuff my cake hole. Which in my case is about 35 miles.
I am aware that I am incredibly lucky that I live in a small North Yorkshire market town and within 1 mile of my front door I am in open countryside. Social distancing is much easier for me than for many others.

I used to get a clout off of my mum for using that turn of phrase.

We are in the same position as you although the countryside starts at the perimeter of our garden. Yesterday I cycled 23 miles, had a 5 mile walk with Lovely Wife and went up the hill behind the house in the evening to watch the stunning sunset over the mountains.

Total humans spotted during all 3 activities were 4 cyclists and 3 walkers - all at way over the 2m minimum separation distance.

 

[Accy cyclist]

Choose 10 family or friends says the government. I could just about find 2 or 3. How can I make the numbers up?