Are we being forced to go electric?

[Grant Fondo]

i4 order goes in tomorrow, expecting about 6 mth wait, who knows?

 

[lazybloke]

I cannot for the life of me see petrol, diesel and kerosene, and as a by product LPG going anywhere, there are far too many people who will need such fuels well into the future, hospitals, cold stores, data centres have diesel back up generators, as do some large stores, fork trucks, caravan cooking and heating need Propane, the armed forces will still need such fuels for AFV’s, Trucks, aircraft and shipping, plus commercial shipping, and that’s just off the top of my head

I think liquid fuels will persist for a long time for many of those applications.

That doesn't mean the fuels will remain available to cars. It was a manifesto pledge that ICE cars in the UK be completely obsolete by 2050, and that's very easy to enforce through MOT and insurance criteria. Maybe there will be exceptions for 'heritage cars', at a price.


When I was a kid I remember hearing about Brazilian ethanol being used as a fuel; not ideal at a large scale as it takes away land from food production, but perhaps acceptable for niche use once ICE cars are deprecated.

As time goes by, I would imagine all liquid fuels would gradually be replaced by synthetic fuels, using carbon capture to make a carbon-neutral "efuel". All created using excess power from off-peak rewnewables , or baseload nuclear.

 

[Gillstay]

It was 30° in 1976 btw!!

One swallow doesn't make a summer.

 

[Gillstay]

I would actually have thought that private cars are a drop in the ocean compared to Aircraft and Shipping, along with everything that’s being burnt, blown up, driven, destroyed etc in Ukraine right now

Yes but they are something that we can easily do something about as the common man.

 

[Gillstay]

That's true, only the government can force us to do anything, so the answer to the thread title is a simple 'yes'.

I think climate change may well be a far greater force that government. People have been thinking for atleast 25 years that they can ignore global warming, and now its proving that they cannot they don't like the change.

 

[Buck]

i4 order goes in tomorrow, expecting about 6 mth wait, who knows?

When I went to order in January the wait was less than 6 weeks as their supply chain had improved but not sure what the situation is now. I suppose it depends on the specification and whether that is a from scratch build or one that can be modified?

 

[DRM]

Yes but they are something that we can easily do something about as the common man.

Not if such vehicles are out of reach to the common man, a heck of a lot of people can't afford a 2/3 year old used ICE car, let alone an EV, so will have to keep running what they have through sheer necessity.

 

[icowden]

When I went to order in January the wait was less than 6 weeks as their supply chain had improved but not sure what the situation is now. I suppose it depends on the specification and whether that is a from scratch build or one that can be modified?

They did have a huge supply issue. I ordered min in Jan 2022 and it was delivered in October 2022. I think that having addressed the backlog and Ukraine supply issues, the wait should be a lot less.

 

[FishFright]

When the majority own an EV, you may well see ICE vehicles being increasingly charged for entering towns and cities, fuel pricing suddenly jumping up in prices. Stick being used instead of carrot

There will be no carrot .

 

[FishFright]

I cannot for the life of me see petrol, diesel and kerosene, and as a by product LPG going anywhere, there are far too many people who will need such fuels well into the future, hospitals, cold stores, data centres have diesel back up generators, as do some large stores, fork trucks, caravan cooking and heating need Propane, the armed forces will still need such fuels for AFV’s, Trucks, aircraft and shipping, plus commercial shipping, and that’s just off the top of my head

So why waste those fuels on private cars when a perfectly viable alternative exists ?

 

[DRM]

So why waste those fuels on private cars when a perfectly viable alternative exists ?

Because ICE cars that currently exist are going to be around a good while longer, there’s no political will to outlaw them, politicians are terrified of upsetting voters with cars, ie the vast majority, you only have to look at the half baked clean air schemes such as Bradford’s that pick on lorries, vans & taxi’s (hackney & private hire) yet leave hoards of clapped out diesel cars in private ownership free to carry on carte Blanche

 

[icowden]

I cannot for the life of me see petrol, diesel and kerosene, and as a by product LPG going anywhere, there are far too many people who will need such fuels well into the future, hospitals, cold stores, data centres have diesel back up generators, as do some large stores, fork trucks, caravan cooking and heating need Propane, the armed forces will still need such fuels for AFV’s, Trucks, aircraft and shipping, plus commercial shipping, and that’s just off the top of my head

And yet, if battery tech improves, airlines will be seeking to move away from liquid fuels to batteries - the military application of planes that can run almost silently would be an interesting one. As for those diesel backup generators, in a few years there is going to be a huge market in recycling old EV batteries that are no longer suitable for EVs. One of those applications is as backup energy storage. Most of the heavy machinery and plant firms are getting into electric.

Would you rather have a heater and cooker in your caravan or tent that carries the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning or an electric induction hob that you can recharge?

eTrucks are already in use - again driven by Tesla creating the Tesla Semi. Yes, it will take some time, but 99% of those things you quoted will work well on battery tech.

 

[MrGrumpy]

And yet, if battery tech improves, airlines will be seeking to move away from liquid fuels to batteries - the military application of planes that can run almost silently would be an interesting one. As for those diesel backup generators, in a few years there is going to be a huge market in recycling old EV batteries that are no longer suitable for EVs. One of those applications is as backup energy storage. Most of the heavy machinery and plant firms are getting into electric.

Would you rather have a heater and cooker in your caravan or tent that carries the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning or an electric induction hob that you can recharge?

eTrucks are already in use - again driven by Tesla creating the Tesla Semi. Yes, it will take some time, but 99% of those things you quoted will work well on battery tech.

Batteries in Jumbo jets ?? I’ll need to ask a pilot friend of mine about what’s happening in the industry ?

Ones things for sure this demand for charging facilities is going to need a lot more than solar/wind !

 

[Pale Rider]

Most of the heavy machinery and plant firms are getting into electric.

I think JCB would give you an argument.

Sir Patrick Bamford said the bigger his product, the longer it has to run for.

Thus a garden tractor or mini digger might only need to run for four or five hours - OK for electric - but operators want his classic JCB digger to do a full day's work.

Making an electric one adds a not so little matter of seven tons of batteries and strengthening to stop the poor thing collapsing under its own weight.

Matters are even worse for the enormous stuff that stooges around quarries and mines.

Operators want those machines to run 24 hours a day.

Goodness knows how many tons of batteries that would take, or how long it would take to recharge them, not to mention adding tens, if not hundreds of thousands of pounds to the cost.

An ICE engine absolutely slaughters electric in these applications, being many times cheaper, many times lighter, and many times faster to refuel.

 

[figbat]

Matters are even worse for the enormous stuff that stooges around quarries and mines.

Operators want those machines to run 24 hours a day.

Goodness knows how many tons of batteries that would take, or how long it would take to recharge them, not to mention adding tens, if not hundreds of thousands of pounds to the cost.

An ICE engine absolutely slaughters electric in these applications, being many times cheaper, many times lighter, and many times faster to refuel.

JCB are focussing on hydrogen combustion.

As for electric mining vehicles...

https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news...irst-battery-electric-large-mining-truck.html

This one is electric and autonomous...

https://im-mining.com/2022/09/13/ri...oup-sustainable-autonomous-haulage-solutions/