Are we being forced to go electric?

[CXRAndy]

Teslas are amazing cars because pretty much every component has enjoyed decades of development in traditional cars or other applications.

No Tesla technology especially the drive and battery design is all new. Yes research would have been done but actually producing the road going models.

I thinks it Sandy Shaw who is an automotive engineering expert waxes endlessly about how far ahead Tesla are compared to all the other legacy manufacturers.

He has no connection to Tesla. They buy the cars, strip down, reverse engineer the ideas and designs of each car.

He finds it amazing that Tesla will update parts whilst going through a productive run. There is non of the next year improvement model that legacy firms adopt. Tesla do it on the fly.

 

[MrGrumpy]

I find that amazing as well , especially as traditional car manufacturing is about tooling up , standardisation. The Japanese wrote the rule book on lean , so always look to them on how to build and produce. So when you talk about Tesla changing things on the fly I’m guessing that’s software rather than hardware ?

 

[fossyant]

If Tesla are changing hardware on the fly, you better hope they are making them still as spares in a few years.

Seen this with many cars. My son's car needs a small plastic elbow for the hydraulic clutch line. He's been to Skoda with the part. It's a 7 year old car. Sorry sir, you need a whole new clutch assembly as we've changed the design and you need to buy everything including the servo at many hundreds of pounds. He's managed to get a part via a scrap yard and getting a friend with a VAG parts database.

Changes usually happen on model changes, or new engines.

 

[figbat]

They are certainly not being forced to go electric in Wyoming, or at least not if this bill to ban the sale of EVs to protect their oil and mineral extraction businesses gets enacted.

 

[Scottish Scrutineer]

Don’t think anyone is arguing that but petrol and diesel will be available to buy for some time yet !

The majority of people will be waiting to see what second hand EVs provide ? Along with hopefully a price drop on new . For those who aren’t ready are can’t commit to a full EV , a hybrid is probably a better choice right now !

I'm still not convinced about hybrids, especially with medium/large cars. To have sufficient battery capacity to be worthwhile, they add a significant amount of mass, complexity and cost to what is arguably an already bloated vehicle. With small (size and weight) vehicles, it can be worthwhile, especially the mild hybrids which use a relatively light starter/generator at low voltage (48v) to provide a boost to the small capacity ICE.

Once you go to larger hybrid vehicles, batteries with a useful capacity are heavier, require larger heavier motors, even plug in charging controls and wiring; all these contribute to a lower total efficiency. You'd be as well with a pure BEV.

Unfortunately the impending Euro 7 emissions controls for ICE vehicles will probably kill off the market for small, light efficient ICE cars. Ever more complex control systems, including a need to pre-heat the catalytic converter before the engine can be started is one example that will add mass (increased battery size), additional electronics and will be frustrating to users

 

[Alex321]

They are certainly not being forced to go electric in Wyoming, or at least not if this bill to ban the sale of EVs to protect their oil and mineral extraction businesses gets enacted.

According to the sponsor of the bill it was never actually expected or intended to be enacted.

https://financialpost.com/commoditi...ing-lawmakers-bill-ban-electric-vehicles-2035

"If this all sounds a bit tongue in cheek, it’s because it is — sort of.

Anderson told the Washington Post the main motivation for the bill was California’s move in August to go ahead with a ban on new gas vehicles by 2035.

“I have a problem with somebody saying, ‘Don’t buy any more petroleum vehicles,'” Anderson told the newspaper, adding that he introduced the bill “just to get the message out that we’re not happy with the states that are outlawing our vehicles.”"

 

[Scottish Scrutineer]

Depends on how you use it the horror stories probably the early Mercedes-Benz hybrids where the owners haven't charged up with batteries as they ought and so the batteries become useless...

Most of these hybrids were bought as a tax avoidance measure, nothing else. As a consequence the batteries have degraded. The horror story is that the owners didn't give a damn, not Mercedes fault

 

[MrGrumpy]

I'm still not convinced about hybrids, especially with medium/large cars. To have sufficient battery capacity to be worthwhile, they add a significant amount of mass, complexity and cost to what is arguably an already bloated vehicle. With small (size and weight) vehicles, it can be worthwhile, especially the mild hybrids which use a relatively light starter/generator at low voltage (48v) to provide a boost to the small capacity ICE.

Once you go to larger hybrid vehicles, batteries with a useful capacity are heavier, require larger heavier motors, even plug in charging controls and wiring; all these contribute to a lower total efficiency. You'd be as well with a pure BEV.

Unfortunately the impending Euro 7 emissions controls for ICE vehicles will probably kill off the market for small, light efficient ICE cars. Ever more complex control systems, including a need to pre-heat the catalytic converter before the engine can be started is one example that will add mass (increased battery size), additional electronics and will be frustrating to users

It’s convincing me even more to hang onto the big dirty diesel !

 

[Scottish Scrutineer]

Li-ion casn't do all of the above. Battery warranties in the UK are typically 5 years for small cars, 8 years for larger ones.
2nd-hand ICE cars last a heck of a lot longer than that, and are relatively cheap to keep running.

Probably li-ion is good enough for most (albeit at a cost and taking the UK population further into debt) but the manufacturer who brings to market a cheaper/better battery technology will be popping champagne corks.

Most vehicle manufacturers do not warranty ICE drivetrains for more than 3 to 5 years. That doesn't mean that the majority of ICE drivetrains will expire as soon as the go over 5 years old.....

 

[icowden]

2012 is not relevant. Teslas are amazing cars because pretty much every component has enjoyed decades of development in traditional cars or other applications.

It is relevant, because development of commerical modern EVs has only taken place for around 10 years. That Touran has the benefit of over 100 years of development. If you really want to stretch it you could argue that they have been developing for 20 years. Comparing EV development with ICE we are now at the year 1898 if you go by the first practical modern automobile or 1920 if you want to measure from the birth of the Ford Model T.

'll expect someone to give an update on battery capacity in 20 years!

Tesla increased capacity / range of the Tesla S by 100% over 10 years. The future looks good. That said, very few people *need* a car that can go 500 miles without stopping. What you need is a car that can have most of the range back whilst you go for a wee and get a coffee/coke etc. Another win for Tesla where a 15 minute charge gives you about 172 miles of range. Their V3 superchargers are *very* fast and they want you to take no more than 15 minutes. This is from 2019:-

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/blog/introducing-v3-supercharging

 

[geocycle]

The son has just bought a 2020 Zoe with 200 mile range. Purchase price is high but he has gone the lease route such that he can trade up as tech improves. Running costs are less than his fiesta but the lease adds up. It’s a different mind set and I’m interested how it works out.

 

[CXRAndy]

If Tesla are changing hardware on the fly, you better hope they are making them still as spares in a few years.

What it clearly demonstrates is the adaptive agility for production. The same was/is with chip shortages, this didn't impact Tesla half as much as all the other manufacturers. They adapted their software to accommodate different chip supplier.

 

[CXRAndy]

The son has just bought a 2020 Zoe with 200 mile range. Purchase price is high but he has gone the lease route such that he can trade up as tech improves. Running costs are less than his fiesta but the lease adds up. It’s a different mind set and I’m interested how it works out.

Good for him, all he needs is a 7kWatt or upto 22kW home charger. Zoe is one of the rare city cars that can have more than 7kW charging on AC

 

[CXRAndy]

It is relevant, because development of commerical modern EVs has only taken place for around 10 years. That Touran has the benefit of over 100 years of development. If you really want to stretch it you could argue that they have been developing for 20 years. Comparing EV development with ICE we are now at the year 1898 if you go by the first practical modern automobile or 1920 if you want to measure from the birth of the Ford Model T.

Tesla increased capacity / range of the Tesla S by 100% over 10 years. The future looks good. That said, very few people *need* a car that can go 500 miles without stopping. What you need is a car that can have most of the range back whilst you go for a wee and get a coffee/coke etc. Another win for Tesla where a 15 minute charge gives you about 172 miles of range. Their V3 superchargers are *very* fast and they want you to take no more than 15 minutes. This is from 2019:-

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/blog/introducing-v3-supercharging

Its quite surprising to see 1000 miles per hour charging rate on our Model 3, it doesn't last very long but stays high 700-800s range rapidly bringing the battery back towards 80%

 

[fossyant]

What it clearly demonstrates is the adaptive agility for production. The same was/is with chip shortages, this didn't impact Tesla half as much as all the other manufacturers. They adapted their software to accommodate different chip supplier.

It does, but what happens for those that keep their cars 10 years down the line, when part xyz has been replaced by XYZ1 and looks similar, but they aren't made or stocked. You are screwed from any DIY maintenance - do you have to go to Tesla for parts ? E.g. failed ABS sensor, so simple stuff. It's fine if you lease, but ownership doesn't seem attractive if they change parts often - your motor factor/local garage will be stumped.