Are we being forced to go electric?

[youngoldbloke]

Autonomous cars and taxis are still many years if not many decades away. Their safety is very much not proven - recent reports of Teslas 'not seeing' motorcyclists at night. This is all very like predictions in the 1950s that we'd all be commuting in flying taxis by the end of the 20th century.

 

[CXRAndy]

Come off it, almost everyone would want an EV if the costs were the same as ICE cars.
Sadly, EVs cost far more. This has massive implications for prices of 2nd hand cars once ICE sales are banned.

Worse, the grumbles associated with EVs and their range/charger access/etc become bigger issues as the batteries degrade. So the owners of 2nd hand EVs will be exposed to the massive financial risk of battery replacement.

A new and better battery technology would :

• be good for thousands of charge cycles without affecting capacity
• not leak charge if left idle
• not be damaged by being charged above 80%, or being depleted below 30%
• not be damaged by fast-charging
• could copy with seasonal temperature swings
• be manufactured cleanly (using materials sourced with low environmental impact)
• be readily and cleanly recycled at end of life
• have excellent charge to weight (energy density)
• be cheap to buy
• be cheap (and clean) to recycle

Li-ion casn't do all of the above. Battery warranties in the UK are typically 5 years for small cars, 8 years for larger ones.
2nd-hand ICE cars last a heck of a lot longer than that, and are relatively cheap to keep running.

Probably li-ion is good enough for most (albeit at a cost and taking the UK population further into debt) but the manufacturer who brings to market a cheaper/better battery technology will be popping champagne corks.

Battery technology hasn't leapt forward in 10-20years. It's been a gradual improvement. There probably won't be a great leap other than different chemistry to satisfy the eco aspects.

Battery lifespan is already pretty decent. Yes the very early leafs and even Tesla's had battery trouble. From 2015 cars are vastly superior with extremely low failure rates.

 

[icowden]

The only thing Musk wants is to make lots of money to fund his plan to be King of Mars. He has zero altruistic intentions to help save the planet. He just dropped the price of Tesla's to sell more cars to more individuals and to remain competitive against the multitude of cheaper and better options for electric cars coming from new and established car makers. Who all will continue to promote individual car ownership for as long as they can.

Oh so that's why he said this:-

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/23/tesla-robotaxi-coming-in-two-years-musk-predicts/

and this:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rob...alked about the,like Uber and Airbnb together.
and this:-
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/755/everything-we-know-about-the-tesla-robotaxi

Strange that a man who envisions robotaxi fares being cheaper than bus tickets is only in it for the money. It's almost like he has other ideas...

Also, why is the price of EVs dropping a bad thing? That's literally what 50% of the posts in this thread have been complaining about?!

 

[MrGrumpy]

I’m honestly cannot see in this next decade nor the one after that , driverless taxis taking me anywhere. From safety point of view, it would take just one serious accident and that would be the end . Robots have their place in fact I expect to be involved in maintaining said things soon but not out in the wild.

As for Musk and his ideas , yep he’s forward looking that’s for sure but he’s also a bit of maverick , a loose cannon !

 

[classic33]

Oh so that's why he said this:-

and this:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-robotaxi-uber-airbnb/#:~:text=Elon Musk talked about the,like Uber and Airbnb together.
and this:-
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/755/everything-we-know-about-the-tesla-robotaxi

Strange that a man who envisions robotaxi fares being cheaper than bus tickets is only in it for the money. It's almost like he has other ideas...

Also, why is the price of EVs dropping a bad thing? That's literally what 50% of the posts in this thread have been complaining about?!

He promised the lorry would be on the road by 2015. It made it there, with problems still in need of sorting out, at the end of last year.

Biggest being the driving position, meaning it's not legal in all US states.

 

[icowden]

He promised the lorry would be on the road by 2015. It made it there, with problems still in need of sorting out, at the end of last year.

Did he invent time travel already? He first mentioned it in 2016 and two concept vehicles were unveiled in 2017. Prototypes were in testing in 2018. Production was intended for 2019 but due to battery shortages was delayed. Continued issues (e.g. Covid) with ramping up battery production pushed it back to 2022.

His timelines are usually off, but so far I don't think he has failed to deliver.

 

[cougie uk]

I’m honestly cannot see in this next decade nor the one after that , driverless taxis taking me anywhere. From safety point of view, it would take just one serious accident and that would be the end . Robots have their place in fact I expect to be involved in maintaining said things soon but not out in the wild.

As for Musk and his ideas , yep he’s forward looking that’s for sure but he’s also a bit of maverick , a loose cannon !

We all know human taxi drivers never have accidents...

20 years is a long time. Who would have thought we'd have so many people WFH 20 years back ?

 

[lazybloke]

Battery technology hasn't leapt forward in 10-20years. It's been a gradual improvement. There probably won't be a great leap other than different chemistry to satisfy the eco aspects.

Battery lifespan is already pretty decent. Yes the very early leafs and even Tesla's had battery trouble. From 2015 cars are vastly superior with extremely low failure rates.

I don't disagree with any of the above, but it's irrelevant to my overall feeling that EVs need to have better, cheaper and more reliable batteries, otherwise the 2nd hand car market is going to face a massive upheaval. Millions could be priced onto the roads, and there's not much indication of public transport taking up the slack.

As for battery lifespan already being "decent", the motoring press say to expect a 20% drop in range within the warranty period of a new EV, and we all know that lithium ion battery capacity ultiamtely falls off a cliff. Does that happen at 9 years? 10? 11?

My Touran could still give 70mpg, rathere more than the manufacturer expectation of 41-47 mpg. So whilst an EV struggles to maintain 80% range at 8 years of age, that Touran managed 150% at 15 years! I'd call that "pretty decent".
(on it's original engine, turbo and gearbox too).

EVs are brilliant, but they're a long way from having the longevity of an ICE car, and that has huge implications for millions.

 

[marzjennings]

Strange that a man who envisions robotaxi fares being cheaper than bus tickets is only in it for the money. It's almost like he has other ideas...

Also, why is the price of EVs dropping a bad thing? That's literally what 50% of the posts in this thread have been complaining about?!

His has lots of ideas, but he's a narcissistic sociopath looney who believes rich 'smart' people should have babies to offset the deluge of 'dumb' immigrants, see pronatalism. He was born into a rich family and has had the good luck to be able to invest and fund some huge technical advances such as paypal, Tesla and SpaceX. He was and is just in it for the money, regardless of what his press/spin office puts out there.
But I digress...

The recent drop in Tesla pricing is a great thing, but the ease at which they could make the drop highlights how they were gouging the crap out of people before any real competition arrived.

 

[icowden]

His has lots of ideas, but he's a narcissistic sociopath looney who believes rich 'smart' people should have babies to offset the deluge of 'dumb' immigrants, see pronatalism. He was born into a rich family and has had the good luck to be able to invest and fund some huge technical advances such as paypal, Tesla and SpaceX. He was and is just in it for the money, regardless of what his press/spin office puts out there.
But I digress...

You do indeed, and I don't disagree with some of the above. I also think he has made a huge mistake with Twitter. But you cannot deny that SpaceX and Tesla are succeeding in doing what he said they would do.

 

[icowden]

My Touran could still give 70mpg, rathere more than the manufacturer expectation of 41-47 mpg. So whilst an EV struggles to maintain 80% range at 8 years of age, that Touran managed 150% at 15 years! I'd call that "pretty decent".

So your car which is using technology that has been refined and improved for over 100 years can give you 70mpg. Back in 1935 that would have been 14mpg.
The Tesla S was mass produced in 2012 and available range has doubled in 10 years. It took until the 80s before average mpg really started to improve. And your mpg has only been achievable in the last 5 years or so.

 

[Fastpedaller]

I . Add in the ASHP when gas boilers are banned !!!

I understand gas boilers aren't going to be banned as replacements - only in new homes (correct me if I'm wrong)
Air source and ground source are all very well if you have the massive insulation required, in which case other forms of heating will also be more efficient/ use less fuel.

 

[FishFright]

I’m honestly cannot see in this next decade nor the one after that , driverless taxis taking me anywhere. From safety point of view, it would take just one serious accident and that would be the end . Robots have their place in fact I expect to be involved in maintaining said things soon but not out in the wild.

As for Musk and his ideas , yep he’s forward looking that’s for sure but he’s also a bit of maverick , a loose cannon !

It will take much more than one serious accident to make even an iota of difference. If it makes money it'll happen and keep happening.

 

[Fastpedaller]

It will take much more than one serious accident to make even an iota of difference. If it makes money it'll happen and keep happening.

Nail on head.

 

[Gillstay]

Yep I know !! :-) in all seriousness though ? More nuclear power stations seems to be the only show in town ?!

Well the panels are getting better, the wind farms as well, then the systems are getting to be better run and many people are using less in their homes. Just look at the drop from LED lightbulbs.