Why do people get such strong feelings over electric cars and solar panels etc.

[cougie uk]

Well as others have said, everybody isn't going to switch overnight. And also, EVs will not need an average of 12kWh per day, that is only what they will need if they have been fuly discharged, and most will only very rarely be driven that far.

I will be surprised if the average per vehicle is as much as half of that.

National Grid reckon they have the capacity in place already to cope with it - remembering that the majority of charging will be done during what are currently off-peak, low demand periods.

According to my home charger we add about 10Kwh a day and we do more than the average miles in the EV - just over 12,000 a year. I think the average is about 8,000 now ? So that would be roughly 7Kwh as average ?

 

[Alex321]

As you suggest they slowly degrade, meaning over their lifetime they give ever-reducing range and require more frequent charging. Nowhere in this thread has it been suggested that they explode; although now you mention it there are plenty of videos on Youtube of EVs spontaneously bursting into flames...

There's an interesting breakdown on the degradation of the Nissan Leaf battery here; taken from aggregated real-world data. Cutting straight to the chase, about a third down the page is a table of mileage versus range. By 55k miles the table suggests a typical battery will have lost around 1/3rd of its charge capacity / range. In a world where 100k miles on a decent IC car is no big thing, a 100k mile leaf is unlikey to get you very far; while the cost of a replacement battery (best I could find online with a quick search) is £5k. By the time the car's covered 100k miles, is that going to be a justifiable cost?

I understand that there's a huge range of tastes and budgets in this sector, and I'm right at the bottom. However, with the cost of living crisis only getting worse - where would someone who now runs a 100k mile+, £500 beater on a total annual budget of maybe £1-1.5k find themselves in the new shiny world of EVs, if they were the only choice? Walking (or cycling ) would be my guess.

Well the leaf is probably not a particularly good example, because it was a relatively early product on the market. It is one of the few which have been around long enough to have second hand examples in your price range, so I understand why you use it as an example, but by the time most have little choice but to give up their ICE vehicles, there will be plenty of more modern exampes available at that sort of price.

Given how much energy it takes to accelerate / push through the air a large, 2 ton metal box / that really doesn't sound correct... and indeed according to this source (near the bottom and full disclosure I've only skimmed it as I have the attention span of a potato) it isn't:

Well first, that "worst case scenario" just isn't going to happen. Second, with the pace of recent change, the whole article is way out of date, having been written 7 years ago (I can't find a date in the article, but it mentions we could have 1million "by 2019", and all the comments are listed as 7 years ago).

How does that work for those of us who typically spend a grand or less on a car? What sort of mileage / battery degradation are we talking at that price point? How long is that vehicle's viable service life compared to an IC equivalent? What about the energy and material costs of production and disposal?

The energy and material costs of production and disposal are not as much greater as some would have you believe, and are definitely offset by the lower energy requirements for running and maintenance.

 

[Time Waster]

If the leaf isn't a good example, do you know how the degradation of more modern eV technology is likely to be? Is the new tech going to mean a 5 year old eV car will be equivalent purchase in terms of cost to buy and cost to use as current 5 year old ICE cars? Will they realistically give as long use as current ICE cars are capable of?

I used to buy at 5 years and sell off at 12 years. What would the realistic battery cost implications of that timescale of ownership be for EV cars? I assume a battery change would be needed, possibly two? What about the actual motors? How long do they last?

Now my 170k+ mile diesel car before I got rid of it had very few reliability issues. Biggest bill was about £350. What sort of costs would bei realistically expecting with an EV when run from 5 years to about 12 years of age? Back then I was on about 15k per year 20k at the worst, I was reducing car use and now I'm 6000 miles per year in the camper.

I'm trying to get my head around the facts as far as we can determine them. If anyone, especially those who have looked into EVs or experience of them, can help me to discover realistic costs should I go down the EV route with my next car purchase. Details like 5 year old prices of EVs versus ICEs, expected consumables cost for year 5 to year 12, I assume batteries are consumables ultimately. They are on ICEs.

 

[Alex321]

If the leaf isn't a good example, do you know how the degradation of more modern eV technology is likely to be? Is the new tech going to mean a 5 year old eV car will be equivalent purchase in terms of cost to buy and cost to use as current 5 year old ICE cars? Will they realistically give as long use as current ICE cars are capable of?

It is difficult to know just how prices will go. But I would expect it won't be very different from the cost of an ICE vehicle which was a similar price point when new.

I used to buy at 5 years and sell off at 12 years. What would the realistic battery cost implications of that timescale of ownership be for EV cars? I assume a battery change would be needed, possibly two? What about the actual motors? How long do they last?

Unlikely you will need a battery change in that timescale. Most of the more recent cars guarantee the battery for 10 years, and the majority will still be usable beyond that.

Now my 170k+ mile diesel car before I got rid of it had very few reliability issues. Biggest bill was about £350. What sort of costs would bei realistically expecting with an EV when run from 5 years to about 12 years of age? Back then I was on about 15k per year 20k at the worst, I was reducing car use and now I'm 6000 miles per year in the camper.

They will generally be significantly more reliable, because there are fewer moving parts, which are what tend to wear out most.

But I would think a battery replacement may possibly be needed by 170K miles, even if that is in less than 10 years. It is more about number of charge cycles than calendar period. The "10 year guarantee" is usually actually 10 years or 100K miles, whichever comes first.

I'm trying to get my head around the facts as far as we can determine them. If anyone, especially those who have looked into EVs or experience of them, can help me to discover realistic costs should I go down the EV route with my next car purchase. Details like 5 year old prices of EVs versus ICEs, expected consumables cost for year 5 to year 12, I assume batteries are consumables ultimately. They are on ICEs.

Batteries on ICE vehicles are not similar to those on EVs. Completely different technology, completely different use case.

You are unlikely to need to replace the battery much before about 12-15 years with average usage. But with higher usage, that is likely to be sooner.

And future developments are likely to result in longer lasting batteries, just as developments over recent years have resulted in longer lasting ICEs. When I was first buying a car, 100K was considered very high mileage for a petrol car (diesels were fairly rare then). Nowadays even petrol cars routinely expect close tio twice that, and diesels more again.

 

[vickster]

At least at present, EV insurance seems to cost rather more than for an equivalent value ICE - eg if you compare a 20k EV to a 20k ICE. Whether than will improve once supply chains get sorted, more mechanics/auto electricians get trained up to deal with EVs and the cars don't get written off if there's any hint of damage to the battery. As well as all car insurance companies offering EV insurance so there's a full competitive market

 

[gbb]

You have come up with some of the comments I frequently get and which I find odd.

For instance the huge lump of money is not needed, we can buy a second hand Leaf for £6,000.

People run model T's and other veteran cars, so why would electric cars become useless.

Yet if i try to explain the above points the conversation stops or people get angry.

And yet I bet they all accepted at some point an electric watch...........and many other items that went from mechanical to electric.

I agree, you can buy a second hand Leaf for circa £6k, i researched them quite a lot with a mind to using one for 30 mile daily commuting. Cost isnt really an issue, battery life is. Most i looked at quoted 50 miles roughly life left per charge. That meant i would charge every day, probably not an issue in itself, work is quite well equipped with chargers., a big reason i considered a second hand EV.
But the following were of concern...
How much to charge ? Would it be dearer, cheaper or around the same as petrol costs. Its quite difficult to define until you have one and try. (at least without some really in depth research where i would'nt know where to begin). So there's an unknown.

Secondly, capacity drop off, how fast ? Would i end up with a pile of worthless car in two, three, four years ? Again, an unknown.

That was enough to deter me. I have a perfectly viable, known option so i decided against. I'm not prepared to just drop £6k on an unknown in essence.

 

[the snail]

....

That was enough to deter me. I have a perfectly viable, known option so i decided against. I'm not prepared to just drop £6k on an unknown in essence.

I'm not sure if I would take a punt on one, but there are 3rd party companies that will refurbish/upgrade your leaf battery, hopefully this will become more common.

 

[markemark]

At least at present, EV insurance seems to cost rather more than for an equivalent value ICE - eg if you compare a 20k EV to a 20k ICE. Whether than will improve once supply chains get sorted, more mechanics/auto electricians get trained up to deal with EVs and the cars don't get written off if there's any hint of damage to the battery. As well as all car insurance companies offering EV insurance so there's a full competitive market

On moving from ICE to Ev My insurance went down by 40% and servicing was so cheap I got 4 years thrown in with the deal. Insurance drop partly due to old JLR being expensive but was still a massive drop on a similar priced new car.

 

[dicko]

I have solar panels and they save us a great deal of money.
Electric Cars are way, way too expensive and to be frank I don’t think they are going to be around much longer as car manufacturers wishing they had petrol cars to sell to draw the customers and make them money.

 

[Alex321]

I have solar panels and they save us a great deal of money.
Electric Cars are way, way too expensive and to be frank I don’t think they are going to be around much longer as car manufacturers wishing they had petrol cars to sell to draw the customers and make them money.

Car manufacturers "wishing they had petrol cars to sell" will not make petrol cars suddenly reappear. Very few countries will allow the sale of new petrol cars after about 2035, some sooner than that.

Electric cars will be around for as long as people are wanting personal cars.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I have solar panels and they save us a great deal of money.
Electric Cars are way, way too expensive and to be frank I don’t think they are going to be around much longer as car manufacturers wishing they had petrol cars to sell to draw the customers and make them money.

Fossil fuels are, by definition, not sustainable - there's a finite quantity of them. So either cars will disappear, or electric cars will take over. The only question is when, and the longer that transition is left, the more of a shock it will be.

[there's another alternative, which is to manufacture liquid fuels from electricity. That's unlikely as it's net much more expensive than battery cars]

 

[Time Waster]

@Alex321 your first comment has a bit of an issue for me. We need a car a certain size / type for the needs of our family. AIUI EVs cost more for the equivalent so if both vehicle types depreciate the same I'm spending more or starting with an older vehicle. First is difficult, we've only got so much money so it might not be possible. Second means older battery 7 years old car not 5 years old. Might not be an issue in the end but it's a concern to me.

Your second point needs clarification of the 10 year battery guarantee. It will not be at 100% of original charge capacity. Possibly a third off, possibly more after 10 years I don't know, have you seen anything about that? My point being 10 years guarantee must mean a practical range is left on it. For example I like to stop on long journeys every 2 hours. Usually a quick stop then change of drivers as my partner takes over. Motorway mostly so that could be 120 miles. If we're then doing another 120 miles with only a short stop to charge. I wonder what my actual range would be. Would a 5 to 7 year old EV cope? How about 10 year when the battery guarantee runs out? I suspect an EV on longer trips would need a slight change in habits. Probably not a big issue but it's currently an unknown to me and I suspect to everyone since these newer EVs are not in that age range yet.

I have a fair bit of experience with ICE cars. With usual maintenance I've never had serious issues. I've car went through two alternator changes in just under 12 months resulting in a warranty change. Basically at about 12 years the alternator failed then the faulty replacement failed at 13 years. £350 cost and apart from services, mot, a few consumables like tyres, but still original exhaust when sold on at about 14 or 15 years for that astra estate. Per annum costs for maintenance were low. Virtually any garage can work on it which helped when alternator failed on holiday. My question is tyres are the same, suspension pretty similar if a bit better to cope with higher weight of EVs motors on EVs are totally different. Are you saying they are more reliable than say industrial electric motors which the ones at my old work got sent away occasionally for refurbishment to keep them going. I reckon car motors aren't remotely similar, but do they have a trouble free life for the 12 plus years an ev would be when I replaced it? I just don't know about EV motors so I'm interested to know more about them in terms of use and lifetime.

Rechargeable batteries used in EV s are certainly different technologies to ICE batteries, you're right there. Different tech but also use in that they're constantly being charged up and run down rather than just being kept topped up by the ICE. I reckon that's a harder use profile but it's designed for it. Mind you still with each new advance people area being the Guinea pigs really. There's very little that I've found to give me a true understanding of battery life for realistic use. Whilst holiday or long distance drives aren't a day to day thing for us it's still something we need to cover.

We are the Guinea pig generation with EVs they're new and the tech is developing fast. This does make EVs less appealing to us, we prefer to know more but what comes out seems more like propaganda than anything else. If all adds doubt.

I think we'll stick with our ICE van for as long as possible just continue to use it less to keep it running longer. Hopefully when it does go all these doubts will be proven by real world experience to be less of an issue as the tech improves and the better tech reaches the price we can afford. Or there a better alternative available. It's all gaps in knowledge and experience right now. So many things we need to know before I feel confident in it being a good choice.

 

[Gillstay]

On moving from ICE to Ev My insurance went down by 40% and servicing was so cheap I got 4 years thrown in with the deal. Insurance drop partly due to old JLR being expensive but was still a massive drop on a similar priced new car.

Yes there is a lot less to service, same as the electric hedge cutter or chainsaw and yet people just seem to refuse to see these points.
This is part of what I find so odd, and yet it can be a mechanic who is looking at it or a classic cars enthusiast with good mechanical knowledge.
I wonder if we did the same over the steam cars to petrol change over.

 

[cougie uk]

At least at present, EV insurance seems to cost rather more than for an equivalent value ICE - eg if you compare a 20k EV to a 20k ICE. Whether than will improve once supply chains get sorted, more mechanics/auto electricians get trained up to deal with EVs and the cars don't get written off if there's any hint of damage to the battery. As well as all car insurance companies offering EV insurance so there's a full competitive market

I was surprised that my EV insurance was about the same as my petrol car. Then again they are both getting renewed in a few months so let's see how much they have both gone up by !

 

[wafter]

Well the leaf is probably not a particularly good example, because it was a relatively early product on the market. It is one of the few which have been around long enough to have second hand examples in your price range, so I understand why you use it as an example, but by the time most have little choice but to give up their ICE vehicles, there will be plenty of more modern exampes available at that sort of price.

Perhaps, but as you suggest it's one of the earliest to market; so therefore gives the most insight into associated longer-term trends. Maybe by the time "most have had little choice but to give up their ICE vehicles" (why?) there will be more modern examples; but that doesn't answer the question of whether they'll be any more viable.

Well first, that "worst case scenario" just isn't going to happen. Second, with the pace of recent change, the whole article is way out of date, having been written 7 years ago (I can't find a date in the article, but it mentions we could have 1million "by 2019", and all the comments are listed as 7 years ago).

Tbh I've not combed through it in detail, however I'd not expect the numbers to change much as electrical systems are broadly similarly efficient to how they were seven years ago, while the physics of how much energy it takes to push a car through the air hasn't changed.

The energy and material costs of production and disposal are not as much greater as some would have you believe, and are definitely offset by the lower energy requirements for running and maintenance.

Again, a hard one to quantify. Certainly not helped if EVs have a significantly shorter lifespan than IC equivalents however..

It is difficult to know just how prices will go. But I would expect it won't be very different from the cost of an ICE vehicle which was a similar price point when new.

Here we come back to the elephant in the room that is battery degradation. IC vehicles tend to depreciate in a fairly predictable fashion due to degrading condition, higher potential for the need for expenditure in the form of repairs, and perceived reduced desirability compared to new. EVs are subject to all of these, plus the potential fall-off-a-cliff-bin-it situation when the battery becomes non-serviceable.

I had a quick look at Leafs on ebay earlier - one of the cheaper ones was a 2013 model with maybe 70-odd thousand miles on the clock and 40 miles range left on a full charge for about £2.5k. Granted, they were meant as short-range urban transport from the off so the starting figures were never great (maybe 130 miles for the smallest battery?); but what happens when that already tiny range becomes wholly unacceptable? It goes in the bin as it's not financially viable to replace the battery... at what, 100k miles, 10yrs age...?

Compare that to a Hinda Civic of similar vintage - probably similar purchase cost, less depreciation, just as much range as it had when it was new and no chance of it being written off because it'll no longer travel distances shorter than you could comfortably do on a bike without being plugged in.

They will generally be significantly more reliable, because there are fewer moving parts, which are what tend to wear out most.

I'd agree with this point - generally less complexity and fewer moving parts definitely plays to the EV's favour; although potentially offset by limited repairability outside of (expensive) main dealers.

Car manufacturers "wishing they had petrol cars to sell" will not make petrol cars suddenly reappear. Very few countries will allow the sale of new petrol cars after about 2035, some sooner than that.

Electric cars will be around for as long as people are wanting personal cars.

It was 2030 here, until the government rowed it back by five years... in addition, Toyota (the largest selling brand in the US) really don't like EVs (I think for legit reasons), many European brands are well behind the adoption curve and the Chinese stuff's typically crap / dangerous / likely to be subject to sanctions if they throw their hat into the ring with Russia..

Fossil fuels are, by definition, not sustainable - there's a finite quantity of them. So either cars will disappear, or electric cars will take over. The only question is when, and the longer that transition is left, the more of a shock it will be.

[there's another alternative, which is to manufacture liquid fuels from electricity. That's unlikely as it's net much more expensive than battery cars]

True, however EVs aren't immune to the need for finate materials - Lithium being the big one. Bottom line there are too many of us and we consume too much; but this has no legs politically so as a race we keep duping ourselves with these novel, supposed saviours of our unsustainable, consumptive lifestyles.

Yes there is a lot less to service, same as the electric hedge cutter or chainsaw and yet people just seem to refuse to see these points.
This is part of what I find so odd, and yet it can be a mechanic who is looking at it or a classic cars enthusiast with good mechanical knowledge.
I wonder if we did the same over the steam cars to petrol change over.

As per my last post, again I'd argue a poor analogy to a point - although actually IME electric chainsaws at least are crap. Horses for courses and it's naive / disingenuous / pointless to simply boil it down to an argument about energy sources without any context.