COVID Vaccine !

[Gillstay]

Serious infection ..... anyone dying ..... lots and lots of people dying of cancer while the Covid Brigade keep the fear going ..... 141 people sadly died with or of Covid yesterday ... but over 1500 died of other causes, many of them possibly as a result of being ignored by the health system over the last 2 years ...
Proportionate Response ... is the way forward .... End the Fear Porn.

So your post then is `Doubt porn?' iI am trying to understand why you would state these views and struggle to understand what you hope to gain from them or are you just trying to be outspoken and wind people up.

 

[mjr]

Consider, if you can, how many of these 'other causes' are contagious? How many of these 'other causes' put healthcare workers at risk? You're not going to catch cancer form someone who's got cancer are you!

No, but someone's curable cancer may progress to incurable because it was ignored. Even some pretty benign conditions can become fatal if left untreated long enough. So far from being baseless speculation, I'd say it's certain that some deaths from other causes are due to covid delaying other treatments.

Full disclosure: I was on a 14-month hospital waiting list and it took them seven months to even admit that. I have now moved to the back of an up-to-4-month waiting list at a different hospital far away which I can get to by bike+train. I don't think this illness will kill me, but it has been getting worse recently and there are ways it could, eventually, even if I think they are usually rare in developed countries. And there was more in this rant which I've cut. So I'm a bit fed up with people suggesting 50'000 cases a day is fine and the NHS is coping because it really does not look like it to this ill person!

 

[MontyVeda]

No, but someone's curable cancer may progress to incurable because it was ignored. Even some pretty benign conditions can become fatal if left untreated long enough. So far from being baseless speculation, I'd say it's certain that some deaths from other causes are due to covid delaying other treatments.

...

All due respect MJR but what was baseless speculation in LandSurfer's post is 'many of which'. That's not the same as 'some' or 'a few'.

'Many' of those deaths could have been caused by stupidity, recklessness or failing to seek medical advice soon enough, but that would be baseless speculation on my part.

The NHS has been stretched for decades and the media guffaw in the 80s and 90s about empty beds costing too much led to it being stretched even further. Throw in a pandemic and it quickly reaches breaking point, which is about where we are right now.

 

[mjr]

'Many' of those deaths could have been caused by stupidity, recklessness or failing to seek medical advice soon enough, but that would be baseless speculation on my part.

If you include "failing to seek medical advice soon enough" in there, then you can dismiss all deaths due in part to covid-delayed treatments because they simply failed to seek enough medical advice before the pandemic or long enough to take account for year-plus waiting lists. You could probably even dismiss all deaths from progressions of chronic illnesses, even where the deceased didn't realise they were ill until too late. They clearly didn't seek medical advice soon enough.

I think it's fair to quibble about the proportions but we won't really know that for years. And even if delayed treatment is killing thousands, I don't see many ways of ignoring covid that would reduces it. Bringing it back on topic: it's better to go out and get as vaccinated as you can. Even if we end up with annual or twice-annual variant vaccines until it mutates itself out of lethality, is that really too difficult for people to cope with? I think it's a marvel of modern medicine. It could be far worse: the bunch of snowflakes currently populating this country could have been around in the war! They'd have been too busy protesting against gas masks to fight or dig for victory or whatever!

 

[Ajax Bay]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume that the significant excess non-COVID deaths (about 15,000) since the second wave bottomed out (@80pw) end April are down to a combination of factors. (Note that COVID deaths since 1 May are about 14,900.) One must be people's perfectly reasonable continued reluctance to go near a hospital with the ever-present risk of nosocomial infection. I'll bet another reason to stay away is the ?British too-unselfish 'other people need hospital treatment more'. No doubt people have stayed away from primary care for the same reasons and also far less face-to-face interaction so incipient disease has not been picked up as early as pre-pandemic it might. Sure there are excellent papers etc on this and many more likely causes.
All figures are England and Wales.
Here's the Nightingale graph produced by CEBM. I note that the excess death rate (which I'm defining as all deaths per week above the 2015-2019 average) is well above the number of deaths per week due to COVID-19 (deaths registered mentioning COVID-19 on the death certificate).
"The number of deaths registered in week 45 was 12,050 deaths (week ending 12 Nov); 16.6% above the five-year average (1,719 more [excess] deaths)." According to the gov.uk dashboard the 'COVID' deaths in the week to 12 Nov were about 939 (1198 for UK).

 

[classic33]

If you include "failing to seek medical advice soon enough" in there, then you can dismiss all deaths due in part to covid-delayed treatments because they simply failed to seek enough medical advice before the pandemic or long enough to take account for year-plus waiting lists. You could probably even dismiss all deaths from progressions of chronic illnesses, even where the deceased didn't realise they were ill until too late. They clearly didn't seek medical advice soon enough.

I think it's fair to quibble about the proportions but we won't really know that for years. And even if delayed treatment is killing thousands, I don't see many ways of ignoring covid that would reduces it. Bringing it back on topic: it's better to go out and get as vaccinated as you can. Even if we end up with annual or twice-annual variant vaccines until it mutates itself out of lethality, is that really too difficult for people to cope with? I think it's a marvel of modern medicine. It could be far worse: the bunch of snowflakes currently populating this country could have been around in the war! They'd have been too busy protesting against gas masks to fight or dig for victory or whatever!

IF we include, as you suggest, progressive illnesses then as someone with cancer, and epilepsy I'll wait until the system is back up and running for routine appointments. Either of those could kill me, and treatment for both ceased last year. Long term side effects of medication led to a referral being made to check the damage done. Bone thinning has led to CSF leaks, which led to me being placed on a list for surgery which was cancelled last March.

You seem to have a beef about having to wait for treatment. You're joining a long list, make the most of it.

 

[mjr]

You seem to have a beef about having to wait for treatment. You're joining a long list, make the most of it.

Of course I have, especially when lied to about the length of the wait. Why haven't you?

 

[Dolorous Edd]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume that the significant excess non-COVID deaths (about 15,000) since the second wave bottomed out (@80pw) end April are down to a combination of factors. (Note that COVID deaths since 1 May are about 14,900.) One must be people's perfectly reasonable continued reluctance to go near a hospital with the ever-present risk of nosocomial infection. I'll bet another reason to stay away is the ?British too-unselfish 'other people need hospital treatment more'. No doubt people have stayed away from primary care for the same reasons and also far less face-to-face interaction so incipient disease has not been picked up as early as pre-pandemic it might. Sure there are excellent papers etc on this and many more likely causes.

If access to medicine for non-COVID illness has only a very limited bearing on non-COVID deaths, we've wasted an awful lot of money on the NHS over the last 60 years.

 

[classic33]

Of course I have, especially when lied to about the length of the wait. Why haven't you?

I'll be seen when the system catches up. Right now I appreciate the work being done by front line NHS staff, too much to be moaning about having to wait. For the operation cancelled last March, I'd already been waiting 18 months.

 

[Ajax Bay]

If access to medicine for non-COVID illness has only a very limited bearing on non-COVID deaths, we've wasted an awful lot of money on the NHS over the last 60 years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/life-expectancy

Data Source: United Nations - World Population Prospects

 

[Landsurfer]

The NHS is very much the "Curates Egg" of an organisation.
Julie, diagnosed in April with an aggressive arthritic hip condition, assessed again in September, returned home from hospital yesterday afternoon after a full hip replacement .... Thank you Mr. Blair and his team.
Me, Transient Global Amnesia event 4 weeks ago, ambulance refused to attend as “i was near a canal”, after being booked in at A&E I was left for over 14 hours before treatment commenced and spent 23 hours 50 minutes in A&E before being moved to the waiting room of a ward. The waiting room! ... Many thanks to the recently retired Paramedic and her husband who came to my assistance at the canal cycle path.

And so it is with the Covid vaccine experience. I booked in at the Well pharmacy 200 metres from my house and had an aggressive reaction to the Pfizer vaccine. My friend Mel who lives 50 metres a way from me ... 12 miles to Doncaster for her jab.. no reaction.
There are 2 NHS’s. The clinical NHS that strives to care and help and the organisational NHS that is a cash absorbing monster that needs to be broken up and re set for the future.

 

[PaulSB]

The NHS is very much the "Curates Egg" of an organisation.
Julie, diagnosed in April with an aggressive arthritic hip condition, assessed again in September, returned home from hospital yesterday afternoon after a full hip replacement .... Thank you Mr. Blair and his team.
Me, Transient Global Amnesia event 4 weeks ago, ambulance refused to attend as “i was near a canal”, after being booked in at A&E I was left for over 14 hours before treatment commenced and spent 23 hours 50 minutes in A&E before being moved to the waiting room of a ward. The waiting room! ... Many thanks to the recently retired Paramedic and her husband who came to my assistance at the canal cycle path.

And so it is with the Covid vaccine experience. I booked in at the Well pharmacy 200 metres from my house and had an aggressive reaction to the Pfizer vaccine. My friend Mel who lives 50 metres a way from me ... 12 miles to Doncaster for her jab.. no reaction.
There are 2 NHS’s. The clinical NHS that strives to care and help and the organisational NHS that is a cash absorbing monster that needs to be broken up and re set for the future.

In our household and everyone in our social circle has made a personal choice as to where to attend for a vaccine jab. From memory for the booster I had a choice of 6 sites and picked a day, time and site to suit me. Surely your friend had options? You don't say if she booked it or not.

The reaction is irrelevant to the point you're making.

 

[Landsurfer]

In our household and everyone in our social circle has made a personal choice as to where to attend for a vaccine jab. From memory for the booster I had a choice of 6 sites and picked a day, time and site to suit me. Surely your friend had options? You don't say if she booked it or not.

The reaction is irrelevant to the point you're making.

And a good morning to you too Paul ... she booked it and had it as stated in the post ... did you read it ? She was given 6 options, the one in Doncaster was the closest ...

 

[PaulSB]

And a good morning to you too Paul ... she booked it and had it as stated in the post ... did you read it ? She was given 6 options, the one in Doncaster was the closest ...

You didn't say whether or not your friend had booked, to me this implies choice, her booster. From the way your post was phrased I understood she had been invited to Doncaster without any choice being your criticism of the system.

So yes I did read exactly what you posted.

 

[Julia9054]

There are 2 NHS’s. The clinical NHS that strives to care and help and the organisational NHS that is a cash absorbing monster that needs to be broken up and re set for the future.

Currently dealing with my elderly and frail father in law with bladder cancer. The clinical side has been superb - swift, slick and efficient. The aftercare, communication and systems for organising his rehabilitation have been shocking. I have more sophisticated systems for ordering how many test tubes in need in my classroom for a practical lesson with year 7. If the poor old man didn’t have 3 adult children - two just down the road and the third a retired nurse - he would just be left to rot.