Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I think the target to offer all over 18s a third dose by end Jan is, as they say, a stretch target, but achievable.
Let's convert that 'offer by' to 'jab by' and say end Feb.
Vast majority of the 18-25s will have received their second jab by end September so the new '3 months after 2nd jab criterion' has no limiting effect.
Current situation (data from ONS, gov.uk dashboard and a bit of bbc for age cohort uptake (so far)):
Population of UK = 67M, Under 12s: 9.6M, Under 18s = 14M, Over 18s 53M
Total – first dose
51,020,285 (of which about 1.3M are 12-15 (40% uptake) and 0.9M are 16-17 (58% uptake))
So 48M adults (5M unvaccinated)
Total – second dose
46,431,662 (assume all are adults)
Total – booster/third dose
19,015,975
Assume minimal more adult first dose uptake (unless the UK descends into some authoritarian state behaviour).
Deduction: not many more adult O/18 second doses to give - allow 1M
Another 1.8M first doses needed for 12-17s (assume 90% uptake, likely over-estimate) - allow 2M
Second doses for 12-17s - allow 4M (90% uptake)
Third/booster doses (assumes all adults who get second dose (46.4 + 1 =) 47.4M) will take up offer of third) = (47.4 -19 =) allow 28M
So from 1 Dec to 28 Feb - 35M doses required. 90 days (including public holidays).
Required rate: average of 389k doses per day.
Current doses jabbed per day (7 day average) = 427k and average has been over 400k per day for over 3 weeks now.
Let's convert that 'offer by' to 'jab by' and say end Feb.
Vast majority of the 18-25s will have received their second jab by end September so the new '3 months after 2nd jab criterion' has no limiting effect.
Current situation (data from ONS, gov.uk dashboard and a bit of bbc for age cohort uptake (so far)):
Population of UK = 67M, Under 12s: 9.6M, Under 18s = 14M, Over 18s 53M
Total – first dose
51,020,285 (of which about 1.3M are 12-15 (40% uptake) and 0.9M are 16-17 (58% uptake))
So 48M adults (5M unvaccinated)
Total – second dose
46,431,662 (assume all are adults)
Total – booster/third dose
19,015,975
Assume minimal more adult first dose uptake (unless the UK descends into some authoritarian state behaviour).
Deduction: not many more adult O/18 second doses to give - allow 1M
Another 1.8M first doses needed for 12-17s (assume 90% uptake, likely over-estimate) - allow 2M
Second doses for 12-17s - allow 4M (90% uptake)
Third/booster doses (assumes all adults who get second dose (46.4 + 1 =) 47.4M) will take up offer of third) = (47.4 -19 =) allow 28M
So from 1 Dec to 28 Feb - 35M doses required. 90 days (including public holidays).
Required rate: average of 389k doses per day.
Current doses jabbed per day (7 day average) = 427k and average has been over 400k per day for over 3 weeks now.
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