COVID Vaccine !

[Ajax Bay]

I agree about data, @Johnno260. More than one set of data, however. Think the data would show that the health risk to under 16s of vaccination (the faint hazard of significant side effects) is well less than the health risk if they caught COVID-19. But if the risk of catching it is higher:

• because it's endemic,
• and there's a residual %age of the population susceptible (12M under 16),

then there's an argument for vaccinating the (say) secondary school age groups. But JCVI are grappling with that.
There are some categories of 12-15s for whom the vaccine is advised, but generally "the overall harm-benefit balance related to the vaccination of healthy 12 to 15 year olds" is still 'no'. "JCVI will continue to review emerging data and provide further advice in a timely manner."
However this spills across into the community need, and (aiui) JCVI judgements are explicitly individual-based.
Our youth are going to develop antibodies in one of two ways: by vaccination or naturally (by infection). Which is safer?
So there are two sets of data:

• individual risk of disease versus side effect risk of vaccination
• effect on community disease transmission (and resulting prevalence).

Hence the Bundestag and the Bundesrat (?) decision to see the STIKO guidance/advice (no doubt based on the finest German data analysis) and raise it (vaccinate under 16s - stereotypical (and laudable) Germanic practicality).

 

[DCLane]

I'm fully resigned to the fact that I'm probably going to catch covid sooner or later when schools go back.
Difference is that I am a lot less scared now I'm vaccinated

Similar for me as I'm back in the classroom when university teaching resumes at the end of September.

My students until February are almost all international arrivals from India and China, which could be 'interesting'.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Tbh, last year the numbers increased when schools returned after summer.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...les/coronaviruscovid192020incharts/2020-12-18
I know the causal / correlation argument, but it would hardly be surprising.

Last year (September) 0% of the population was vaccinated and cases went up steadily and gradually in all communities. Were well regulated schools a driver or a reflection? As a Scottish sheriff might say 'unproven' (sotto voce - 'but I wouldn't be surprised').
Should we take measures on the basis that a cause might be hardly surprising? Yes: schools are taking a multitude of such measures.
Anyone want to suggest that we should keep children home from school for another month?
Should consideration be given to yet more adverse effect on their academic and social education in this balanced decision, and the effect on the workforce (parents of said children)?
But this is the 'vaccine' thread: and 'erro'.

 

[MartinQ]

Last year (September) 0% of the population was vaccinated and cases went up steadily and gradually in all communities. Were well regulated schools a driver or a reflection? As a Scottish sheriff might say 'unproven' (sotto voce - 'but I wouldn't be surprised').
Should we take measures on the basis that a cause might be hardly surprising? Yes: schools are taking a multitude of such measures.
Anyone want to suggest that we should keep children home from school for another month?
Should consideration be given to yet more adverse effect on their academic and social education in this balanced decision, and the effect on the workforce (parents of said children)?
But this is the 'vaccine' thread: and 'erro'.

Sure, but the concept of schools being "well regulated" may be a tad optimistic with kids being kids. My lad seems to have caught it at school and passed it on to us in October, so generalizing from a sample size of 1 ...
Ours have gcse next summer so heres hoping vaccine/.... works well enough.

 

[Julia9054]

Sure, but the concept of schools being "well regulated" may be a tad optimistic with kids being kids. My lad seems to have caught it at school and passed it on to us in October, so generalizing from a sample size of 1 ...
Ours have gcse next summer so heres hoping vaccine/.... works well enough.

Not just kids being kids but the impossibility of social distancing etc when you have up to 2000 people in a small space day after day.

 

[MartinQ]

Not just kids being kids but the impossibility of social distancing etc when you have up to 2000 people in a small space day after day.

Agreed. My lad hates breaking rules and most days he was saying the one way systems wern't being used properly/enforced 100%/... Its probably unreasonable to expect schools/kids to be able to social distance properly, even with the best intentions. To bring it back to the vaccine a bit, they want to have it (gcse this year) and I'd encourage them to have it if it was seen as optional.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Vaccines old and new, then, while we can still post

• A vaccine comprises two active parts - the information on the part of the virus an immune response is to be formed against, and an adjuvant, something to stimulate the immune system in to responding to that information. This presents stimulation to the immune system along the lines of "some foreign body is present" - not very specific to viral infection.
• DNA and mRNA vaccines undergo de novo synthesis where viral protein is synthesised within the cell. This process presents stimulation to the immune system that specifically says "something is replicating *within* the cell" - more specific to viral infection.
• Inactivated virus vaccines and the new synthetic nanoparticle vaccine (Novovax) do not engage in de novo synthesis and so some of the virus-specific stimulation of the immune system is missing.
• Novovax is not directly comparable to inactivated virus vaccines, but like them it presents complete viral proteins and does not undergo de novo synthesis. Yet, the data shows it elicits a strong T-cell response for example. This suggests that there's clear magic going on with its adjuvant. They use a saponin derived molecule to adjuvenate it - a complex organic molecule.
• SinoPharm and CoronaVac both use Alum based adjuvants. As I understand it, these basically work by irritating the body and causing a generic inflammatory response, a rather less gory version of scratching around the injection site with a rusty needle.
• Valneva is using a relatively new adjuvant (CpG 1018) that is a synthetic organic molecule. This adjuvant mimics aspects of the appearance of the DNA/RNA produced in the host during viral replication. This adjuvant has previously been shown (pre-Covid) to stimulate CD4+ and CD8+ responses as well as stimulating strong memory B and memory T cell responses. It's shown to be particularly effective at generating the kind of responses more potent against intra-cellular pathogens. And it'll be Scottish (produced).

So some of the new vaccines may do even better (efficacy) or have greater durability (last longer, less or no boosters)

 

[Johnno260]

This may help some as well it’s about vaccine immunity vs natural immunity.

Full report:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.18.21262237v1

The summary by the author is on this tweet:

View: https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1432726171221778435?s=21

 

[Ajax Bay]

Note the "Ct < 30" definition of an infection. That is designed to include (ie capture in data) asymptomatic infections, aiui.
A take away from that tweet (if figures correct) is that a person doubly vaccinated with AZ Vaxzevria has reduced their chance of infection by 'exactly' 2/3rds (so still a one third chance, compared to an unvaccinated/no previous infection person).
ETA: For COVID19 (unlike measles @99% for example) vaccination does not confer immunity.
A take away for me is "Stay suitably safe and think about your responsibility for self and for others you come in close (indoor mostly) contact with, and what their likely behaviours are/have been."

 

[Ajax Bay]

JCVI have given a limited 'go ahead' for third doses (note 'booster' terminology has been 'retired') for about half a million of the most severely immunosuppressed patients (link).
"JCVI advises that a third primary dose be offered to individuals aged 12 years and over with severe immunosuppression in proximity of their first or second COVID-19 vaccine doses in the primary schedule. Severe immunosuppression at the time of vaccination is defined" in the link.
The wider programme for at least all over 70s (ie JCVI Gps 1-4 (14M) who all received their first dose ahead of the 15 Feb target) seems still on hold "waiting for more evidence" - I think @midlife shared the draft plan upthread. NHS had made contingency plans to deliver a 25M+ Dose3 programme from next week (interim JCVI advice back in June). Whatever is finally rolled out will need to integrate (assumed) with the 'normal' autumn flu vaccination programme.

 

[Johnno260]

Note the "Ct < 30" definition of an infection. That is designed to include (ie capture in data) asymptomatic infections, aiui.
A take away from that tweet (if figures correct) is that a person doubly vaccinated with AZ Vaxzevria has reduced their chance of infection by 'exactly' 2/3rds (so still a one third chance, compared to an unvaccinated/no previous infection person).
ETA: For COVID19 (unlike measles @99% for example) vaccination does not confer immunity.
A take away for me is "Stay suitably safe and think about your responsibility for self and for others you come in close (indoor mostly) contact with, and what their likely behaviours are/have been."

I highlighted the important part, and it's something many people misunderstand and I wish they could comprehend it, the vaccine doesn't offer total immunity but it does offer many other benefits, if you look at death rates that are reported through proper channels the deaths to unvaccinated massively outweigh the vaccinated.

I know people smile at the anti vax thread, but the above are aspects I see misunderstood far to often, and it's costing lives and futures, due to deaths and long Covid.

 

[classic33]

It seems as though the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will no longer be used locally. A list of what will be available and when, was published last week. The last mention of Oxford/AstraZeneca being given was yesterday(1st September). The Modena vaccine gets a mention at the end of this month. Other than that it's all Pfizer from now on.

 

[Johnno260]

This is a report/study on how breakthrough infections are made far less serious if single or doubled vaccinated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...al&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27013292

The Lancet tweet for summary purposes:

View: https://twitter.com/thelancet/status/1433195677610352644?s=21

 

[midlife]

Boris seems to have announced booster jabs for the older generation starting this month. ....

 

[Craig the cyclist]

It seems as though the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will no longer be used locally.

Not true. AZ will continue to be used.