COVID Vaccine !
- Thread starter kingrollo
- Start date
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Profile on Kate Bingham - UK Vaccine Chair
Warning: contains bicycle references
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000wjff
Warning: contains bicycle references
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000wjff
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
Thanks for that AB - I should've put 'start a new thread' in the post - now edited to that effect.
Must be too much sun...
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Not info, but here's my estimate, based on achievement at 5 Jun and assuming the maintenance of the current daily vaccination rate (500k doses/day) for the next 3 months.
Population of UK: 67M, adult 53M (O/16)
85% of 53M is 45M
We'll have given 45M first jabs by about 8 Jul (this takes into account diminishing second dose proportion this month). If we then assume we going to have moved to an 8 week gap by then, . . .
my estimate is 2 Sep to get 85% of the adult (O/16) population fully vaccinated (both doses). Note that if we achieve an average 90% uptake then we'll get to 45M by double dosing all over 20s, but this relies on the same uptake for second doses as for first (emerging evidence of significant missed second dose appointments).
In August there will be sufficient supply to give a first jab to all over 14s. But I suspect for practical purposes this cohort might be 'done' on the first days of term and the supply used to give the second jab to the under 30s at a gap less than 8 weeks, on the basis that 2 doses give a significant multiplyer to protection to the delta variant (or whichever variant is the dominant by then).
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Since the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) has a higher basic R number than even the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) - how much larger is not yet clear
- and against which the available vaccines' effectiveness after 2 doses against infection is less, . . .
85% of adults (O/16) seems an optimistic figure for significant flock immunity effects to drop the effective R number below 1, on the assumption that no earlier than 21 Jun (and surely by mid July) the NPIs will be relaxed.
Behavioural changes will endure across the country (UK) without legal force. Ironically the sections and cohorts of the population who are least likely to be spreaders will be the ones who are most careful and the spreading element are the ones who will forget the threat (not just to them but to their community and wider constituency). I think it's likely that the Government will decide to go with the 21 Jun date, judging that the tests have been passed (but we have another few days of data to inform that decision: SAGE meets mid next week (latest released minutes). On the table as a useful measure when the decision is made/announced (14 Jun) will be selective continued restraint on certain multi-person indoor activities likely to be high risk eg: night clubs and bars (standing: sitting and table service is lower risk), weddings larger than currently allowed. This sort of activity affects few, in practice, and the adverse effect on the economy of their continued proscription would be minimal.
On balance I reckon that this third wave (absolutely as predicted by the SPI-M modellers (I prefer the Warwick analysis and treatment - see below)) will endure to a peak in July and decay in August. As the vaccination percentage pushes up to 85% the decay gradient is likely to be steeper than the rise. Besides the (%) protection from vaccination, increasing numbers of the unvaccinated will catch COVID-19, mostly mild or asymptomatic, and their numbers can be added to the no longer susceptible total. Critically, the effect of mid-90% double vaccination of all over 50s and other vulnerable groups can be expected to delink case numbers with serious disease (proxy metric = hospital admissions) numbers.
This modelling was done in late March. One observation I'd make is that the model maintained (default) a higher linkage between cases and hospital admissions than I think the modelling presented to SAGE next week will use (we now have better data).
- and against which the available vaccines' effectiveness after 2 doses against infection is less, . . .
85% of adults (O/16) seems an optimistic figure for significant flock immunity effects to drop the effective R number below 1, on the assumption that no earlier than 21 Jun (and surely by mid July) the NPIs will be relaxed.
Behavioural changes will endure across the country (UK) without legal force. Ironically the sections and cohorts of the population who are least likely to be spreaders will be the ones who are most careful and the spreading element are the ones who will forget the threat (not just to them but to their community and wider constituency). I think it's likely that the Government will decide to go with the 21 Jun date, judging that the tests have been passed (but we have another few days of data to inform that decision: SAGE meets mid next week (latest released minutes). On the table as a useful measure when the decision is made/announced (14 Jun) will be selective continued restraint on certain multi-person indoor activities likely to be high risk eg: night clubs and bars (standing: sitting and table service is lower risk), weddings larger than currently allowed. This sort of activity affects few, in practice, and the adverse effect on the economy of their continued proscription would be minimal.
On balance I reckon that this third wave (absolutely as predicted by the SPI-M modellers (I prefer the Warwick analysis and treatment - see below)) will endure to a peak in July and decay in August. As the vaccination percentage pushes up to 85% the decay gradient is likely to be steeper than the rise. Besides the (%) protection from vaccination, increasing numbers of the unvaccinated will catch COVID-19, mostly mild or asymptomatic, and their numbers can be added to the no longer susceptible total. Critically, the effect of mid-90% double vaccination of all over 50s and other vulnerable groups can be expected to delink case numbers with serious disease (proxy metric = hospital admissions) numbers.
This modelling was done in late March. One observation I'd make is that the model maintained (default) a higher linkage between cases and hospital admissions than I think the modelling presented to SAGE next week will use (we now have better data).
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Agree your concern and deduction.
This heat map shows the percentages (overall) vaccinated first dose, by 5-year age cohort, over time (I left the 45-49 figure there) for Bolton:
Total percentage (uptake) by age group by vaccination date.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Higher than expected enthusiastic take-up, but every silver lining has a cloud, so the booking system fell over again. https://www.theguardian.com/society...vid-vaccine-by-25--to-29-year-olds-in-england
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
When an Oxford-AZ vaccine is combined with a Pfizer-BioNTech dose for the second vaccination, the vaccinated showed a significantly stronger immune response than in those with a double AZ vaccination. The body's defence reaction is even slightly higher than in those with a double Pfizer jab (Research team led by immunology professor Martina Sester at Saarland University, Germany).
https://www.dw.com/en/mix-and-match-vaccines-biontech-astrazeneca-better-than-one-shot/a-57819127
https://www.uni-saarland.de/en/university/news/news/news-article/nr/23581.html
The researchers compared the strength of participants' immune responses two weeks after the second jab. "We didn't just look at the number of antibodies against the coronavirus [the participants] developed, but also how effective the so-called neutralizing antibodies were," Sester explained. "That tells us how good the antibodies are at preventing the virus from entering our cells."
The COVID-19 Heterologous Prime Boost or ‘Com-Cov’ study started in UK in February: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-0...ial-investigating-dosing-alternating-vaccines
https://www.dw.com/en/mix-and-match-vaccines-biontech-astrazeneca-better-than-one-shot/a-57819127
https://www.uni-saarland.de/en/university/news/news/news-article/nr/23581.html
The researchers compared the strength of participants' immune responses two weeks after the second jab. "We didn't just look at the number of antibodies against the coronavirus [the participants] developed, but also how effective the so-called neutralizing antibodies were," Sester explained. "That tells us how good the antibodies are at preventing the virus from entering our cells."
The COVID-19 Heterologous Prime Boost or ‘Com-Cov’ study started in UK in February: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-0...ial-investigating-dosing-alternating-vaccines
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Andy in Germany
Guru
- Location
- Rottenburg am Neckar
This is why I had to go back to my place of work, where the first vaccination was made, for the second. I was also given paperwork with the label from the vaccine and date, which arm was plugged, et c.
On the second vaccination I had to bring that paperwork with me; no paper, no vaccination.
