COVID Vaccine !

[Deleted User]

Shep, I genuinely don't know if you are a real person or an internet character you've made up.

Just a rough arsed rigger from the Midlands who says it as he sees it, didn't think I'd offended anyone, sorry.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Mod note:

Now, come on fellow Cycle Chatters let's not descend into personal digs/accusations/counter retorts etc - please!

I've just been singing the praises of these (excellent imo) Covid threads over in Chat.

Many thanks.

 

[lane]

People have a different approach to risk for various reasons. I have no doubt that for many being at work each day and having kids at home who go to school each day, will have changed their view of things versus people working from home for a year. Being back at work in September did somewhat change my approach to risk and looking back I would say I was too risk adverse over the summer when the prevalence of the disease was incredibly low.

 

[Bazzer]

As the other thread has been locked, thanks @Archie_tect for the heads up regarding booking for the over 60s.

 

[Deleted User]

Mod note:

Now, come on fellow Cycle Chatters let's not descend into personal digs/accusations/counter retorts etc - please!

I've just been singing the praises of these (excellent imo) Covid threads over in Chat.

Many thanks.

I'm not offended

 

[Oldhippy]

Best news of the days for those of with siblings or family with profound and multiple learning disabilities is that thanks to the great Jo Whiley from Radio 2 the government will finally recognise that the LD community are real people who matter as well and have largely been ignored throughout this virus.

 

[Ajax Bay]

All people on the learning disability register should now be prioritised for a Covid vaccine, JCVI has advised the government.
This means 150,000 more people at higher risk being offered a jab more quickly in England.
Now everyone on the GP learning disability register will be invited for vaccination as part of priority group six, Public Health England has confirmed, regardless of how severe their disability is.
And the NHS is being asked to work with local authorities to identify other adults in the community who are severely affected by a learning disability and who may not be registered, but should be offered a vaccine.
It comes after an analysis found that people registered with their GP as having a learning disability, who tend to be those at the more severe end, are more at risk of being seriously ill and dying from Covid.
There are 1.2 million people with a learning disability in England - but only a quarter to a third of them are thought to be on the GP learning disability register.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56181154

 

[Oldhippy]

About time. I know others on here have family and siblings with LD and can vouch for the uphill struggle it can be to get the most basic wants and needs met if you have a learning disability.

 

[mjr]

I've just been singing the praises of these (excellent imo) Covid threads over in Chat.

Ah, so that's what caused it(!) Is there a Covid equivalent of the P fairy?

 

[Archie_tect]

Mod note:

Now, come on fellow Cycle Chatters let's not descend into personal digs/accusations/counter retorts etc - please!

I've just been singing the praises of these (excellent imo) Covid threads over in Chat.

Many thanks.

Thanks Spokey... hadn't appreciated how difficult making a public service announcement would be!

The vaccination programme is fantastic- heartfelt thanks to all the volunteers and medical staff.

 

[mjr]

I was out last year at every opportunity when there was no vaccine and cared not one jot, bravery has nothing to do with it.

People are different and that's fine, how old are you?

I was out last year when we could lawfully, but I did take care. If you didn't, I'd say that was brave or foolhardy.

I'm fortysomething.

@shep won't need to be brave. He'll judges the risk to be low, and he's right. Low for him, and low for his mum (under 60 (say) and low for his aged, vaccinated grandad.

Of course their risk will probably be low: they'll all have been farking vaccinated!

You don't need to be brave either, @mjr, just have a reasonable approach to risk - of course you may have other morbidities which will inform the risk to you personally - and avoid any buses.

I think my approach to risk is reasonable, but OK, then: how much have you studied risk? Are you well up on your micromorts and QALYs? What's your track record of past posts correctly identifying the risks which were mishandled and caused many deaths?

And how are you able to judge with absolute certainty the risk levels four months ahead? For example, four months ago was before we knew how serious B.1.1.7 was and I don't recall you warning us about today's risk levels back then, or even January's.

The number of C19 cases in mid April will result in few serious illness and very few tragic deaths. As a percentage of deaths in late April in UK it's likely that weekly deaths with C19 as the underlying cause of death will be less than half of 1% of all deaths each week, comparable with the number of deaths from road traffic incidents (averaged 37 per week in 2019) and about a third the number of weekly suicides (averaged over 130 per week in 2018).

Firstly, that's far from certain, and secondly, deaths are not the only potential damage of this.

Just a rough arsed rigger from the Midlands who says it as he sees it, didn't think I'd offended anyone, sorry.

No worries from me (a mechanic's son from the East Midlands, meduck) but you must know that Midlanders are basically blunt Northerners cursed with soft Southern accents, which can look rather intimidating when written down, and we don't want to scare off our less Midland compatriots (or any other people who speak something resembling our English) from here, so let's leave out the personal attacks!

 

[Ajax Bay]

Of course their risk will probably be low: they'll all have been farking vaccinated!
I think my approach to risk is reasonable, but OK, then: how much have you studied risk? Are you well up on your micromorts and QALYs? What's your track record of past posts correctly identifying the risks which were mishandled and caused many deaths?
And how are you able to judge with absolute certainty the risk levels four months ahead? For example, four months ago was before we knew how serious B.1.1.7 was and I don't recall you warning us about today's risk levels back then, or even January's.

1) As we have heard, the risk to @shep 's antecedents are nil (and they haven't been vaccinated).
2) I'm sure your approach to risk is reasonable - as I said "You don't need to be brave either, @mjr, just have a reasonable approach to risk".
3) I doubt discussion of my, your or other people's depth of knowledge of risk will add value, but what I am sure about is, that it would bore them. Always keen to hear about your risk explorations, of course.
4) Feel free to offer an opinion on the track record of my past posts on vaccines, ideally with an egregious example or two.
5) "how are you able to judge with absolute certainty the risk levels four months ahead?" I made predictions for late April (only 2 months ahead btw) which are based on current data, previous experience and a minimum of maths. Can one ever be "absolutely certain" about risk? I asserted the risk to @shep was low and sought to give context. I said "The number of C19 cases in mid April will result in few serious illnesses and very few tragic deaths." In the 4 months Nov-Feb the average number of patients with C19 in a UK hospital was circa 20k (~15% of beds). In late April I reckon the number will be less than 5000, with "absolute certainty". Last summer for a month it was below 1000.
Edit: 6) Last year I wasn't sharing any warnings about risk on here so unsurprised you cannot recall anything: nothing to recall. I alert you to the fact that this is the 'vaccine' thread.

 

[lane]

@Ajax Bay it would be interesting to understand how you reach your conclusions around numbers late April - 8 weeks away. i would expect rates of infection to have increased quite significantly by then, but primarily among the under 60s who are less likely to be hospitalized and quite a lot less likely to die.

 

[johnblack]

I was talking to my Aunt who lives in Manhattan, she's 70 with cancer (in remission). Trying to book a vaccine slot is an absolute lottery, there are many different sites where you have the ability to apply, NYC Health Dept. , individual hospitals, clinics and healthcare centres. The NYC Health site requires a load of questions to be asked, I think it was 40-50, then when you get passed that and find there are no available slots, you have to fill it in again when you next try to get one. So although the States are still jabbing more in comparison to other countries it sounds as though it is going to be quantity over quality, with older less tech savvy people possible missing out.

When I explained the way it works here and the progress made she was amazed.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I said:
"In the 4 months Nov-Feb the average number of patients with C19 in a UK hospital was circa 20k (~15% of beds). In late April I reckon the number will be less than 5000, with "absolute certainty". Last summer for a month it was below 1000."

@Ajax Bay it would be interesting to understand how you reach your conclusions around numbers late April - 8 weeks away. I would expect rates of infection to have increased quite significantly by then, but primarily among the under 60s who are less likely to be hospitalized and quite a lot less likely to die.

All figures 7-day averages
14-21 Feb - 23501 > 18680 reduction 4821 in a week (similar %age reduction the week before - about 20%)
I assumed an exponential decay on the basis that that's what was experienced mid April to mid July 2020. The days taken to reduce by half (each time) averaged 27 days (31, 26, 24).
21 Feb to 20 Mar - 18680 halved gets you to 9340
20 Mar to 16 Apr - halved again = 4670; hence "In late April I reckon the number of patients with C19 in a UK hospital will be less than 5000."
Last spring there was no vaccine effect, however:
By now (24 Feb) nearly all those in JCVI Gps 1 and 2 have had at least 14 days since their first jab. By the end of the month it'll be 14 days (so first dose effectiveness) since all the over 70s and CEV (Gp 4) cohorts had their jab.
Of 100 in hospital, up till 88 have come from those cohorts. With vaccine effectiveness at a conservative 80% (to prevent serious illness (aka hospitalisation) that's 88% x 20% will still be hospitalised = 18. If we assume the 12 people under 70 will still need admission that's 30 in hospital, not 100. And the over 65s and UHC in Group 6 will soon (?22 March) have had 14 days since their first jab. That's another ~5 off the 30.
If a variant of increased lethality (and/or causing serious illness) starts to dominate, that could make a difference, but only if the effectiveness of the current vaccine (~20M by end Feb) is significantly reduced.
While there are high levels of cases in the community, the threat to the vulnerable is still there, even if they are vaccinated. Hopefully all the people they are coming into contact with have also been vaccinated. The vulnerable must continue to be careful: their guard should not drop till the infection rate generally is much lower.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital