COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

Those tests, however, were found to be inaccurate as much as 60% of the time.

That depends what you mean by inaccurate. As I understand it, a lateral flow test is more likely to detect severe cases (which means it misses some mild cases) and less likely to detect debris from a passed infection. The two biggest challenges are getting people to swab themselves correctly and to not treat a LFT negative as permission to go unmasked and up-close needlessly.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

That depends what you mean by inaccurate. As I understand it, a lateral flow test is more likely to detect severe cases (which means it misses some mild cases) and less likely to detect debris from a passed infection. The two biggest challenges are getting people to swab themselves correctly and to not treat a LFT negative as permission to go unmasked and up-close needlessly.

This in spades - I know a number of people who are, foolishly and irresponsibly, using these kits and because they are negative they think they can ignore Gov' guidelines/rules. Four of them are NHS employees. One works in a school. Idiots the lot of them.

 

[PK99]

Why I am in a higher priority group for a vaccine than younger people with chronic health conditions
Professor David Spiegelhalter
Statistician, communicator about evidence, risk, probability, chance, uncertainty, etc. Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, Cambridge.

That guy has a gift for explaining the ourput of complex analysis in a simple and understandable way.

I've asked those very questions, now I have a glimmer of understanding

 

[Chromatic]

Had a text today inviting me to book my first jab.

 

[matticus]

This in spades - I know a number of people who are, foolishly and irresponsibly, using these kits and because they are negative they think they can ignore Gov' guidelines/rules. Four of them are NHS employees. One works in a school. Idiots the lot of them.

Surely that's an issue with ANY test - it only says you are (probably) clean NOW. It doesn't say you are now invulnerable!!!

 

[Blue Hills]

Any case for moving this thread to the cafe?
I fear folks who might find it genuinely interesting, useful, even encouraging in these dark times won't see it due to having their NACAs left off for understandable reasons.

 

[mjr]

Surely that's an issue with ANY test - it only says you are (probably) clean NOW. It doesn't say you are now invulnerable!!!

To a degree, but an LFT negative doesn't even really say you are clean now. At best, it says that you probably won't infect others right now, but at the moment, with hospitals still busy and treatments still being developed, it is still worth reducing that probability even further by covering nose and mouth, keeping distance and washing better.

I still feel the game-changer will be if antibodies and immunity become much better understood and someone develops an equivalent of the Heaf test for covid immunity.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Early signs that the vaccine is starting to reduce the number of deaths?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072684


BBC News analysis, using data from England only, suggests the vaccine is starting to push the numbers down.

Coronavirus deaths are falling faster for vaccinated than unvaccinated groups.

On average, deaths of over-80s fell by 53% between 28 January and 11 February, compared with 44% for under-80s.

This week, Prof Chris Whitty, the UK's chief medical adviser, said: "The earliest indications would imply there is some effect.
"But I think it's too early to put a number on that.

"We would expect to see some evidence that is strong enough to put into the public domain in the next few weeks."

 

[AuroraSaab]

Average deaths down 53% in a fortnight.....that would be great news if accurate, Spokey. Let's hope so.

 

[Ajax Bay]

On average, deaths of over-80s fell by 53% between 28 January and 11 February, compared with 44% for under-80s.

I'd observe that:
1) 53% - 44% is a small difference; and not clear what the confidence interval is on those two figures.
2) Deaths during this period will be related to infection around 19 days earlier (median) so between 9 - 22 Jan.
3) The over-80s population is 3.3M. The number of over-80s who received their first dose 20 days before that (ie 20 Dec - 2 Jan) was small: about 15% by 20 Dec growing to 30% by 9 Jan. Note that by 9 Jan only about 2M first doses had been administered (assume that half went to NHS frontline staff - also in Gp 2)
4) The protection (?52%) (stopping catching the infection and suffering serious disease) generated by a (Pfizer) jab is not as much as 7 days after 2 doses (?94%).
5) So doing the sums: with 22% of cohort getting 52% protection we might expect to reduce (over-80) deaths by 11% compared to the 'by then' unvaccinated under 80s.
6) There will have been behavioural difference between over-80s and the general population during Christmas and up till Epiphany.
White smoke? Maybe. I sincerely hope that we shall see a dramatic reduction in over-80s hospitalisation and in extremis deaths progressively over the next fortnight: a combination of sharply falling cases per day rate since mid Jan, and even those catching not getting it badly.

 

[fossyant]

MrsF's booked in for her jab on Monday - text arrived last night, literally minutes after I said - I bet you'll have your's before me.

I'm 51, she's 49. But she has slight asthma and is also a registered carer for her mum/my son - mum is in a care home now.

It's rolling down folks. All good news.

 

[C R]

So I am officially group 6. Got a text from my surgery and booked in for first dose on the 27th.

 

[marinyork]

Average deaths down 53% in a fortnight.....that would be great news if accurate, Spokey. Let's hope so.

There's going to be more data coming out on Friday and we may see it on Friday or Monday.

One of the difficulties on comparing deaths is what brings those things about in the first place, the supposed infection rates by age vary a lot by geographic area and there's a lot of noise. However one of the things to come out of data in a lot but not all local authority areas is the infection rates of 70-74 year olds and in some areas older groups seems to have come down a lot and gone 'green' when other ages haven't.

The bad news is in many urban areas cases are not falling particularly fast, with a bit of an exception towards this having been in South East England and Wales.

 

[lane]

Quick update following my Pfizer vaccine on Tuesday. Slightly sore arm, nothing much. One of the possible side effects is feeling tired; think I did feel a bit tired yesterday but I sometimes do anyway so can't say it was the vaccine. No headache at all. Anyway feeling fine today and arm no longer sore. Side effects such as they were, on the mild side of mild. Now just need to wait two or three weeks for the immunity to develop.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Now just need to wait two or three weeks for the immunity [% limited protection from serious illness] to develop..... and May for the second jab.

FTFY