Is there a correlation between leavers and anti-vaxers? Seems it.
What do you think suggests there might be,
@dodgy What deduction(s) would you draw if there was? Is there a correlation between minority communities and anti-vaxxers? Share your definitions of an 'anti-vaxxer' please, just so we know how wide you cast that net.
Surely the most important factor in immunity is who is immune not how many? Within a month the vast majority of high risk people with likely bad reactions to the coronavirus will be at least partly if not fully immune. Why would it matter if the low risk population is susceptible, since only a small number of those are ever likely to be hospitalised or die? It's quite conceivable to have a substantial ongoing number of coronavirus cases happening for some time to come without it making very many people seriously ill, in which case the presence of the virus doesn't matter.
"Surely the most important factor in immunity is who is immune not how many?"
For reducing the number of deaths and serious illness: yes. But we're trying to get beyond that to getting back to a new normal where individuals, communities and the economy can thrive, with the associated necessary tax revenue. And so we need to vaccinate enough to achieve herd immunity, with or without an estimated contribution (?2M under 30) of those who have had C19 since November (June minus 6 months). So "how many" matters (
is a major factor).
"Why would it matter if the low risk population is susceptible, since only a small number of those are ever likely to be hospitalised or die? It's quite conceivable to have a substantial ongoing number of coronavirus cases happening for some time to come without it making very many people seriously ill, in which case the presence of the virus doesn't matter."
Two reasons: first: the small number who do get seriously ill or die could be cut by 90%: a good thing in itself. Second: those low risk people are both liable to infect others so contributing to continued circulation of the virus, and increasing its opportunities to mutate to a more lethal and/or a more transmissible and/or a variant against which the current set of vaccinations is less or in-effective. This is not a 'good thing' and by mass vaccination (and other mitigations) the risk can be minimised. [Edit: x post with Julia on that.]
Thus "the presence of the virus" does matter, and herd immunity is an objective worth shooting for, nationally and world-wide. I encourage everyone to say 'yes' to the offer.
By my maths (at a (conservative) 2.5M total doses a week in UK from now on) herd immunity (80% of 67M) on these islands might be achieved by end July (with a few reasonable assumptions, see earlier posts).