COVID Vaccine !

[Rusty Nails]

Would you regard missing the target as good, then?

Is the problem failing to achieve a target, or poor target setting?

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I had a think while cycling and I think the interest in this target is because it will tell us more about the current state of the government on two vital aspects:
1. have they learned from the testing target farce about actually delivering? And if this pledge is also looking like it will be broken, will they attempt a repeat?
2. how much trust can we have in what they say, about vaccine deployment? Or anything much?

It's also the most dynamic target currently on show. Cases are falling and it's mainly a case of waiting for them to fall far enough to unlock and hoping it is before a new even nastier variant arises which stymies unlocking.

I've no interest in "just another opportunity to slate the Government". We're probably stuck with them for the best part of four years now, so it serves little purpose for its own sake. I'll happily praise them when they do something good like set up Active Travel England, but apart from finally getting active about active travel, the last year of covid response has been littered with clangers dropped which have probably increased the toll. Those are worth criticising.

Happily, the vaccination rate has accelerated to nearly 400k/day now, so it's looking on course to hit the target.

I admire your Left Wing optimism.

Latest polls have Boris back in front of Starmer and Conservatives to win next election. (Source: Guardian/Spectator/Gov.uk etc).

I think many Gov's will have dropped 'clangers' before this is over - even the much hallowed Germany is coming unglued on the vaccination front and their T&T is falling over by all accounts. Nature of the beast I'm afraid - new territory etc.

 

[mjr]

I admire your Left Wing optimism.

I don't expect such insults from a moderator!

I didn't say they wouldn't win next time or that I wanted them to lose. I just said we don't have a choice in the matter for years.

 

[Deleted User]

I don't expect such insults from a moderator!

I didn't say they wouldn't win next time or that I wanted them to lose. I just said we don't have a choice in the matter for years.

You see that as an insult?
Jeeez.

 

[Unkraut]

Don't know current info but Germany started well then lost the plot:

I'm not sure the tracing was really the problem. Over 50 per 100 000 infections and it gets harder to then impossible to track people. The infection rate is now within sight of returning to this figure, with calls for relaxation of restrictions which thankfully will go unheeded. It needs to be considerably less than that. Merkel is not going to make the mistake other countries have by relaxing too early.

The S E Asia countries have done better on this than anybody in the West.

The mistake Germany made was to delay in implementing a lockdown in October, and to make it a 'light' lockdown. It did stop the exponential rise, but did not reduce the rate. This is now generally acknowledged. At least this wasn't compounded by a Christmas free for all.

The other problem is an obsession with personal privacy, data protection. This has greatly reduced the value of the app, for example. One doctor in a covid ICU has never received a warning from the app! When it comes to the vaccine, all the data for name address and data of birth is held by the voting registrar, but may not be passed to the health authority due to ... data protection. These are not normal times and this needs changing quickly.

The other mistake might have been that Germany didn't single-handedly finance the ordering of vaccines - it would have cost the equivalent of a couple of days lockdown and peanuts compared with the EU stimulation package. Overridden the EU commission which was hampered by poorer countries worried about financing vaccines. That was part of the delay.

The comparison of EU and USA shows up what I still suspect was a catastrophic misjudgment by the EU in ordering vaccines despite the fact we have hindsight. I wasn't surprised to see on the news tonight that Hungary has opted to import the Russian Sputnik vaccine under the emergency authorisation provision. A million people have had it without statistically significant bad reactions.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

O-AZ vaccine may have significant impact on transmission rates - let's hope that this is verified sooner rather than later:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

 

[Pale Rider]

Latest polls have Boris back in front of Starmer and Conservatives to win next election. (Source: Guardian/Spectator/Gov.uk etc).

Even if the vaccine programme hit the buffers now, which is looking unlikely, 10 million in such a short space of time is a magnificent effort.

Plenty of people deserve credit for that, but in the public mind Boris and the government will get a lot of it.

It's no surprise to me the Tories have edged ahead in the polls, however people have short memories so whether the stellar vaccine performance will help them in an election in three or four years is more doubtful.

 

[matticus]

It's no surprise to me the Tories have edged ahead in the polls,

What, despite all the criticism from the Cyclechat pundits?? Are we losing our influence with the electorate? 😠

 

[Pale Rider]

What, despite all the criticism from the Cyclechat pundits?? Are we losing our influence with the electorate? 😠

You can't lose what you never had.

 

[Ajax Bay]

If we keep on using that flawed template, it will result in more flawed conclusions. That is a variation on what's called "Garbage In, Garbage Out". It should be possible to see if we are roughly on target another way by looking at the % of the priority groups vaccinated so far, but so far I found only statistics on progress vaccinating the over-80s.

the vaccination rate has accelerated to nearly 400k/day now, so it's looking on course to hit the target.

I had the distinct idea you didn't like the flawed (too simple?) template of adding (rate of vaccination (eg 400kpd) times 11*) to the number already given to predict whether the UK was on course to hit the government's stated target. Is this a revised approach?
*the number of days to 15 Feb
However I have gleaned (source not shareable) some data (England) which will help your preferred model of 'what percentage of each JCVI group have been vaccinated so far'.
Group 1 (1.1M) - care home: all (who are clinically eligible) except those homes where there has been a recent outbreak. They will completed in the next 10 days, once it's safe to visit. Some of the workers have not been vaccinated: a proportion have refused or are 'unable'.
Group 2 (5M) - over 90% (with an undisclosed percentage of refusers/unable).
Group 3 (O/75s, 2.3M) - 90%
Group 4 (O/70s, 3.3M) - 40%
So (rough maths) Gp1=1M, Gp2=4.5M, Gp3=2M, Gp4=1.3M. Total = 8.8M. And about a million not in these groups, or my figures for the size of the groups are lower than 'actual'.
@Rusty Nails has pinged the obvious failure in this 15 Feb vaccination programme target: it was an easy target and chosen as one the government must have known on 4 Jan was easily achievable.

 

[Ajax Bay]

In Nottingham at the weekend people were apparently queueing for 90 minutes outside one centre - which considering how cold it was and people are elderly......

and

It happened on the first day the vaccination centre in York opened.

The over 75 generation were brought up during the war or at least during rationing. They are a disciplined cohort with experience of shortages and queues. So when a vaccine which will reduce their chances of serious illness or death is offered (and will in due course mean they can see family again), it is little surprise if they react thus.
By exposing themselves to these conditions, however, a typical 80 year old will actually be increasing their chances of illness (or even death), but I doubt they see it that way (or maybe they thought the queue would move faster). As @Buck has shared, the 15 minute post vaccination observation 'wait' (in shelter?) slows down the process. With the Oxford-AZ vaccine it's 'in-and'out' like the flu vaccine.

 

[mjr]

I wasn't surprised to see on the news tonight that Hungary has opted to import the Russian Sputnik vaccine under the emergency authorisation provision. A million people have had it without statistically significant bad reactions.

News on tv today says it is now working towards EMA approval and Germany interested in using it because of the high effectiveness.

Belgium to limit AZ vaccine to under-55s. They also seem to be lining up "front line public services" as next vaccine group but not yet defined who that is beyond emergency services.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Another Sputnik vaccine link: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-mankind-sputnik-vs-efficacy-123700136.html
and the actual Lancet link to the report is here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext
Lancet covering article concludes: "The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency. But the outcome reported here is clear and the scientific principle of vaccination is demonstrated, which means another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of COVID-19."

 

[vickster]

Any news on the Chinese Sinovax. Apparently being used very widely in the Middle East despite there being no published data (from a colleague from the region and client based in UAE), with relatively little use of the Pfizer one (vaccinees unable to choose which they get)

 

[Unkraut]

News on tv today says it is now working towards EMA approval and Germany interested in using it because of the high effectiveness.

Belgium to limit AZ vaccine to under-55s. They also seem to be lining up "front line public services" as next vaccine group but not yet defined who that is beyond emergency services.

Announcement today that Curevac are going to develop variants of the vaccine with GlaxoSmithKline in the UK in order to deal with mutations. This pleased me as it is good to see international cooperation at work again.

I also see Boris Palmer the Bürgermeister of Tübingen where Curevac are based wants their version of the vaccine authorised under the emergency provisions rather than the slower route through the agency. Save several weeks. It's a variation on a theme that has been shown to be safe and effective. Time will tell if this occurs, but it is clear our little friend in Brussels has caused quite a stir on vaccine supply and no-one wants it repeated.