COVID Vaccine !

[Ajax Bay]

the antibody treatments which were a great hope, do not work against the variants which is a big blow.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pe-in-covid-treatments-fails-against-variants

Monoclonal antibodies (COVID-19) have not yet been found effective as a therapy in proper (ie Phase 3) trials, aiui, so no 'great hope'.
Reported in December ("Experimental monoclonal antibody not efficacious in Phase 3 trial.") versus 'original' virus version. So failing against variants is to be expected - not really 'news'.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/results-nih-sponsored-activ-3-trial-published

 

[lane]

Monoclonal antibodies (COVID-19) have not yet been found effective as a therapy in proper (ie Phase 3) trials, aiui, so no 'great hope'.
Reported in December ("Experimental monoclonal antibody not efficacious in Phase 3 trial.") versus 'original' virus version. So failing against variants is to be expected - not really 'news'.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/results-nih-sponsored-activ-3-trial-published

The phrase "great hope"is taken from Nick Cammack who leads the Covid 19 Therapeutic accelerator at Welcome. So personally I wouldn't dismiss the statement as readily as you have. Also there is something specific regarding the spike protean which means they will not work as readily against the variants as against the original.

 

[Rezillo]

Ursual von der Leyen, as quoted in the Times:

“Some countries started to vaccinate a little before Europe, it is true. But they resorted to emergency, 24-hour marketing authorisation procedures,” she said. “The commission and the member states agreed not to compromise on the safety and efficacy requirements linked to the authorisation of a vaccine.”

“So, yes, Europe left it later, but it was the right decision. I remind you that a vaccine is the injection of an active biological substance into a healthy body. We are talking about mass vaccination here. It is a gigantic responsibility.”

That's just handing stuff on a plate to UK anti-vaxxers, implying our safety is compromised and what some readers may take as her saying that we are using a live vaccine. Appalling misinformation.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I read that he had described them as a 'great hope'. And they may be still. But since none have been found efficacious so far, that level of hope is not really affected by the new findings:
"monoclonal antibodies – are failing against variants of the virus, such as those that have emerged in South Africa and Brazil, scientists have found." (Guardian link you shared.)
That's all I was trying to point up.
It would be great if they could be found to be effective. Also points up (if you read the scientific paper pre-print) why the 501Y.V2 E484K variant (as identified in SA) is rightly causing the angst and action in UK.

 

[Ajax Bay]

“So, yes, Europe left it later: the Commission had already arranged to go home for 10 days at Christmas, but it was the right decision (to take our time and do it properly)" said von der Leyen.
I wonder how much credibility the public of the United Kingdom (or indeed substantial proportions of the EU) afford the EU Commission President?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Change in Vaccination Strategy?
"one question keeps cropping up: who’s next on the list?"

"The UK's current vaccination priority list was drawn up with a single goal in mind: preventing as many deaths as possible. So the Group 1-9 list goes down incrementally in age to those aged 50 and over, and younger people with underlying conditions. All together, these groups are estimated to make up 99 per cent of preventable deaths from COVID-19."
"The question of who to vaccinate next is not so simple. The JCVI says that the focus for the second phase of the vaccine rollout “could be on further preventing hospitalisation”
Does that mean vaccinating those in certain occupations who are at greater risk of being infected?
Would it be better to target potential super-spreaders is an effective measure of controlling the pandemic?
JCVI is also considering whether a targeted community vaccination policy could prevent transmission. This hinges on whether they can determine which groups are the main ones transmitting the infection to others.
A key factor in the decision will be the extent to which the vaccine actually stops the virus being passed on – something it hasn’t been proven to do yet. (Data from Israel inbound? By the time a decision is needed (?end Feb) we should have some data on the UK experience with 15+M having had one dose by middish-Feb.
Groups 1-4: 15 Feb (say 13.5M)
Another 10M by 15 Mar (Groups 5, 6 and 7 - O/60s)
Then slow to 6M for the next month (because second doses will need to be delivered from 15 Mar).

 

[mjr]

That's just handing stuff on a plate to UK anti-vaxxers, implying our safety is compromised

Well, it was a short term compromise, wasn't it? Boris &co gambled on using a process which would give earlier vaccine approvals and — as far as we can tell so far, because the EMA seems to have issued the same approvals using the more conservative process and we're not yet seeing December vaccinees grow second heads or whatever — won the gamble, giving the UK three weeks head-start and less competition for early supplies.

Does this hand stuff to anti-vaxxers? Maybe until the EMA agreed, but why would it now?

and what some readers may take as her saying that we are using a live vaccine. Appalling misinformation.

I don't see how you make the leap to her saying it's live vaccine, so yes, that does seem like appalling misinformation that should not have been posted!

 

[mjr]

Would it be better to target potential super-spreaders is an effective measure of controlling the pandemic?

My recollection of pre-covid flu pandemic models is that targetting super-spreaders is key to ending the outbreak: either vaccinating them or modifying their behaviour to reduce transmission. It might not be sufficient to get things under control, but it is necessary.

 

[lane]

[

Change in Vaccination Strategy?
"one question keeps cropping up: who’s next on the list?"

"The UK's current vaccination priority list was drawn up with a single goal in mind: preventing as many deaths as possible. So the Group 1-9 list goes down incrementally in age to those aged 50 and over, and younger people with underlying conditions. All together, these groups are estimated to make up 99 per cent of preventable deaths from COVID-19."
"The question of who to vaccinate next is not so simple. The JCVI says that the focus for the second phase of the vaccine rollout “could be on further preventing hospitalisation”
Does that mean vaccinating those in certain occupations who are at greater risk of being infected?
Would it be better to target potential super-spreaders is an effective measure of controlling the pandemic?
JCVI is also considering whether a targeted community vaccination policy could prevent transmission. This hinges on whether they can determine which groups are the mainly transmitting the infection to others.
A key factor in the decision will be the extent to which the vaccine actually stops the virus being passed on – something it hasn’t been proven to do yet. (Data from Israel inbound? By the time a decision is needed (?end Feb) we should have some data on the UK experience with 15+M having had one dose by middish-Feb.
Groups 1-4: 15 Feb (say 13.5M)
Another 10M by 15 Mar (Groups 5, 6 and 7 - O/60s)
Then slow to 6M for the next month (because second doses will need to be delivered from 15 Mar).

So the total of 29.5 million by the 15 April (approximately) covers groups 1 to 9?

 

[lane]

My recollection of pre-covid flu pandemic models is that targetting super-spreaders is key to ending the outbreak: either vaccinating them or modifying their behaviour to reduce transmission. It might not be sufficient to get things under control, but it is necessary.

How do you identify them?

 

[mjr]

How do you identify them?

Well, if we had contact tracing that worked, either human or app, then the jobs or features of the most-frequently-contacted/pinged people would be one way to get some idea... but at the moment, that would probably over-emphasise politicians and especially Health Minister and Leader of the Opposition!

Modelling might also give some suggestions but I don't know the detailed models for this as it's not something I've ever worked on.

 

[johnblack]

Well, if we had contact tracing that worked, either human or app, then the jobs or features of the most-frequently-contacted/pinged people would be one way to get some idea... but at the moment, that would probably over-emphasise politicians and especially Health Minister and Leader of the Opposition!

Modelling might also give some suggestions but I don't know the detailed models for this as it's not something I've ever worked on.

I tried looking at this, but can't find much information, how many countries have a fully functioning and successful contract tracing system? I've heard that some in SE Asia have been effective and that may be because they are working with far fewer cases so don't get completely overloaded?? But I have no idea about other European countries, who's doing it well that we can learn from?

 

[Ajax Bay]

So the total of 29.5 million by the 15 April (approximately) covers groups 1 to 9?

Not quite. I said (on current jab rate and resumption of second dose delivery at 12 weeks):
by 15 Mar (Groups 5, 6 and 7 - O/60s).
Then 6M (first jabs) for the next 28 days will do about 2/3rds of Groups 8 (4.4M) and 9 (4.7M)
After mid April, first dose rate estimate might be 1.25Mpw, so we might hope that Group 9 (the last on the JCVI list) might be complete by 30 Apr.
Note: The figures for Groups 5, 7, 8 and 9 will be over-estimates as the actual size of each group will be reduced by the numbers already vaccinated in Groups 4 and 6 - which means these dates are conservative rather than optimistic estimates.
I have not included any 'pessimism bias'.
HTH

 

[Kingfisher101]

TBH, I dont give a fig about any of it, I just want the barber and the shops to re open.

 

[PK99]

I tried looking at this, but can't find much information, how many countries have a fully functioning and successful contract tracing system? I've heard that some in SE Asia have been effective and that may be because they are working with far fewer cases so don't get completely overloaded?? But I have no idea about other European countries, who's doing it well that we can learn from?

Don't know current info but Germany started well then lost the plot:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge