COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

Thank you for that reasoned response. Would you care to offer a few figures to help us understand the extent of the 'undershoot' you declare 'reality': not sure how a hitting, exceeding or undershooting a future target can be judged 'reality' btw.

Whether the current rate would result in hitting or missing the target is what is a reality.

Here's a template to make it easy. You fill in the figures. Please be realistic.

No. If we keep on using that flawed template, it will result in more flawed conclusions. That is a variation on what's called "Garbage In, Garbage Out".

It should be possible to see if we are roughly on target another way by looking at the % of the priority groups vaccinated so far, but so far I found only statistics on progress vaccinating the over-80s. As you would expect, all willing over-80s could be vaccinated easily by 15 Feb, although surprisingly London still looks a close-run thing. I wonder why the %s of the other groups is not being published currently. I thought I had seen a graph of it a week or two ago.

I'd still be interested in what project management standard refers to "optimism bias" and/or suggests 8% for it.

 

[vickster]

No need to slow down on a Sunday.

Except maybe the staff working in centres would like a day off...
Are you a volunteer willing to help on Sundays, if so good on you

If not, you can sign up through this link
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/join-the-nhs-covid-19-vaccine-team/
or https://nhsvolunteerresponders.org.uk/i-want-to-volunteer

 

[Ajax Bay]

No. If we keep on using that flawed template, it will result in more flawed conclusions. That is a variation on what's called "Garbage In, Garbage Out".
It should be possible to see if we are roughly on target another way by looking at the % of the priority groups vaccinated so far, but so far I found only statistics on progress vaccinating the over-80s. As you would expect, all willing over-80s could be vaccinated easily by 15 Feb, although surprisingly London still looks a close-run thing. I wonder why the %s of the other groups is not being published currently. I thought I had seen a graph of it a week or two ago.
I'd still be interested in what project management standard refers to "optimism bias" and/or suggests 8% for it.

1) "Flawed template" How many first dose vaccinations have been delivered? What is the rate of vaccination? How many days to go? How many vaccinations are being given to non-Group 1-4 people?
2) If your 'percentage' template can't be filled with data, that's probably not a useful template (aka flawed).
3) Optimism bias.
"In project management (PM) it is standard practice to include an allowance for 'optimism bias'."
It's a fair while since I did my PM training. You can google 'optimism bias'. I used 8% because that's the amount used in the last large project in which I was involved. Note that including this in my calculation made the target MORE difficult to hit, by one million doses! You can call it a pessimistic 'fudge factor' if that's more to your preference.

9M + (350k x 14) = 13.9M (UK)

 

[mjr]

1) "Flawed template" How many first dose vaccinations have been delivered? What is the rate of vaccination? How many days to go? How many vaccinations are being given to non-Group 1-4 people?

Some of those are published or facts but does anyone know how many vaccinations are going to non-priority people?

2) If your 'percentage' template can't be filled with data, that's probably not a useful template (aka flawed).

Whether or not you include that percentage in your template, it is still relevant and critical. Omitting it doesn't make your template not flawed!

It's a fair while since I did my PM training. You can google 'optimism bias'.

I know I can, but oddly enough, that didn't seem to identify which Project Management standards include it or which one you were using!

I used 8% because that's the amount used in the last large project in which I was involved.

Right, so 8% was pulled out of someone else's arse for a project which I suspect wasn't a mass vaccination effort... so why does it apply here?

Note that including this in my calculation made the target MORE difficult to hit, by one million doses! You can call it a pessimistic 'fudge factor' if that's more to your preference.

No, I call it an attempt to distract from the previous step having made the target far too easy by lopping off 20% arbitrarily!

9M + (350k x 14) = 13.9M (UK)

Which is not 15M so seems to require that refusals/unables exceed the number of non-priority vaccinees by quite a lot.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Which is not 15M so seems to require that refusals/unables exceed the number of non-priority vaccinees by quite a lot.

What percentage do you suggest I use for "refusals/unables"? I used 20% (for easy maths). General pop figure is 19% (your link). For Gps 1-4, just offer me an acceptance percentage, please? 15M x mjr% = ??M What's not "quite a lot" in maths-speak? Your best estimate. Happy to bin the pessimism bias x% as well, if it keeps you happier.
9M + (350k x 14) = 13.9M (UK) is less than 15M. Tick. I was being deliberately conservative with the daily vaccination rate (7 day average).
However the daily 7-day average is currently 388kpd (1 Feb). @ I Feb: 9.3M + (388k x 13) = 14.3M (UK) This is less than 15M too. But the target will be hit, without any 'acceleration':
1) at below 14M
2) Provided the programme gets to all those in Gps 1-4 and offers them a vaccination (first dose), by 15 Feb.
Targets are useful things and has focused the programme. What gets measured gets managed etc. I think there will be merit in setting a target for completing Gps 1-9. I'd set 15 April as an achievable target.

 

[Buck]

Slower day today with only 319k vaccinations. 2.7 million approximately for whole of last week isn't bad.

No need to slow down on a Sunday.

Except maybe the staff working in centres would like a day off...
Are you a volunteer willing to help on Sundays, if so good on you

If not, you can sign up through this link
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/join-the-nhs-covid-19-vaccine-team/
or https://nhsvolunteerresponders.org.uk/i-want-to-volunteer

I think the reasons are many. The main one being vaccine supply. Some centres are well stocked but the visibility of stock deliveries was/is so limited that the ability to plan is somewhat difficult - indeed like driving blindfolded. Others are asking for more stock but cannot get hold of any due to the mystical way the supply algorithm seems to be working.

When you get notification of a deliver then this is late in the day and scrabbling around to get additional people into vaccinate and also to manage the rate limiting factor of the 15 minute wait is frustrating.

I am sure supply will settle down but at present it is very difficult to plant and deliver with so many factors out of your control.

building a bank of volunteers is a fantastic way of working with this but again, this is not a simple task. The governance, training etc is not a two minute job but everyone who volunteers is welcomed with open arms (and a few checks!).

we’ll keep pushing as hard and fast as we possibly can to empty the fridge as quickly as possible.

 

[Buck]

There was an article on R4 PM with Evan Davis tonight - Prof Anthony Harnden Deputy Chair of the JCVI -
Where he talks about reactions to the vaccines, second doses, new variants, living with the virus and annual vaccination.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rtz0

Starts at about 17:30 minutes into the programme.

 

[Ajax Bay]

the rate limiting factor of the 15 minute wait

Are you having to include that for the Oxford-AZ vaccine as well?
Yes - Harnden spoke very well.

 

[lane]

I think the reasons are many. The main one being vaccine supply. Some centres are well stocked but the visibility of stock deliveries was/is so limited that the ability to plan is somewhat difficult - indeed like driving blindfolded. Others are asking for more stock but cannot get hold of any due to the mystical way the supply algorithm seems to be working.

When you get notification of a deliver then this is late in the day and scrabbling around to get additional people into vaccinate and also to manage the rate limiting factor of the 15 minute wait is frustrating.

I am sure supply will settle down but at present it is very difficult to plant and deliver with so many factors out of your control.

building a bank of volunteers is a fantastic way of working with this but again, this is not a simple task. The governance, training etc is not a two minute job but everyone who volunteers is welcomed with open arms (and a few checks!).

we’ll keep pushing as hard and fast as we possibly can to empty the fridge as quickly as possible.

Reminds me of the poundland documentary. They bought a new manager in and the one change he made was letting the shops order stock they wanted from head office; before that they got sent what HO thought they might need - which didn't work so well.

 

[Buck]

Are you having to include that for the Oxford-AZ vaccine as well?
Yes - Harnden spoke very well.

No, thankfully the AZ is without the wait, has a long(er) life and doesnt require reconstituting either so better all ’round.

 

[mjr]

Hancock dribbled out some new progress info today: "We’ve now vaccinated almost 9 in 10 of all over 80s in the UK and now, as of today, we’ve vaccinated over half of all people in their 70s" which probably means there's a bit over 1 in 10 of over 80s to do and a bit under half of 70somethings to do, which is a bit over 1 in 10 of 3.3m and a bit under half of 5.5m, so that's maybe 3.1m left to do... or about 8¼ days of the 14 now left if vaccination continued at last week's rate.

But he didn't tell us anything about the 4.1m health, social care and care home workers or the 1.2m CEV people. There would be time to vaccinate maybe another 2¼m of them. I wonder how many remain?

 

[Buck]

Reminds me of the poundland documentary. They bought a new manager in and the one change he made was letting the shops order stock they wanted from head office; before that they got sent what HO thought they might need - which didn't work so well.

👍🏻 They’ve told us we are going to a pull model ‘soon’. I can’t wait.

Another hidden challenge is the consumables that we are getting. Again, no control on what comes in. 2 pallets worth today - all items we have plenty of stock of and unlikely to need more of!

 

[PK99]

There was an article on R4 PM with Evan Davis tonight - Prof Anthony Harnden Deputy Chair of the JCVI -
Where he talks about reactions to the vaccines, second doses, new variants, living with the virus and annual vaccination.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rtz0

Starts at about 17:30 minutes into the programme.

Thank you for the link.

Good to hear from the experts.

 

[lane]

👍🏻 They’ve told us we are going to a pull model ‘soon’. I can’t wait.

Another hidden challenge is the consumables that we are getting. Again, no control on what comes in. 2 pallets worth today - all items we have plenty of stock of and unlikely to need more of!

Maybe they have the old Poundland manager running it!

 

[classic33]

Not slowing but also no longer accelerating as necessary to hit the 15 Feb target. Let's hope it picks up?

And let's not forget that it's people that are doing the actual injecting. They've too get as many as possible done, with no mistakes, with people saying they're not going fast enough.

Tiredness can kill.