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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Can I check that your 0.1%/week is 1/1000 of the UK population of 67M (ie 67,000) new cases reported per week?
UK is on about 40,000 now; less than 6000 new cases a day. I think it will be a long time before the UK gets below 0.03% = 3000 new cases (positive C19 test) per day (happy for that to turn out wrong). I note that testing has almost tripled since mid-February: main driver is secondary schools testing all their pupils and staff (?6M) with LFTs twice a week.
The difference is that by mid-April very few of those cases will become severely ill as those catching it are either the vaccinated but unlucky 10% or they are unvaccinated (under 50s say, with no UHC) but, as a cohort, very much less vulnerable.
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Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Glad you asked that, I was hoping for something like 'when all adults are vaccinated ' or when there are X amount of new cases etc.
So about 3000 new cases per day to go outside or to the Pub inside for example?
So about 3000 new cases per day to go outside or to the Pub inside for example?
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
7 months way above Germany, 3 weeks below, crisis in Europe? How many Brits in excess of Germans died in those 7 months?
The point was about current trends not past history.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Asked what?
And we're never going to get all adults vaccinated. Some just cannot take it.
Depends on the population of the area, obviously, and different thresholds for outside and for the much riskier indoors.
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Asked you about the % thing, its good of you to reply but I still have difficulty figuring out when YOU would feel comfortable going to the Pub for example. You mention area population, clearly I mean where YOU live as its you I'm asking.
I realise you're very numbers driven so difficult to give a direct answer I suppose, to me l'll be going wherever I can as soon as I can so have difficulty grasping what needs to happen before someone like you will feel happy.
Cheers.
I realise you're very numbers driven so difficult to give a direct answer I suppose, to me l'll be going wherever I can as soon as I can so have difficulty grasping what needs to happen before someone like you will feel happy.
Cheers.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Since you ask, in the last 6 months Germany have recorded 65k deaths involving C19 whereas in UK the figure is 82k (usual caveats about differences in reporting standards). Germany's population is 125% of the UK's. The current daily death rate is 209 in Germany and 120 in UK. Tragically, because Germany's case rate is rising fast (up 30% in a week and accelerating), the death rate there will rise - we can't estimate how far - unhindered by vaccination which is still minimal. In UK though we might assume deaths per day will drop below 100 any day now and will drop to below the levels seen last summer (~20 per day). All the vulnerable cohorts will have been vaccinated so even if a percentage catch C19, few will develop serious illness, let alone die of C19.
It is quite possible that the cumulative deaths in Germany will exceed those in UK by the end of April.
I take no pleasure in looking at the lives already lost and suggesting this tragic loss of life in the future. But does that analysis change your deduction, if any?
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Why only the last six months?
Pale Rider
Legendary Member
I've long thought our huge vaccine advantage will even out death numbers across the densely populated European countries.
My bet with @roubaixtuesday that UK and Germany deaths will be roughly equal is looking safer, although we have yet to agree on a day of reckoning.
In the spirit of Sturgeon, I shall only agree to that day being on one which I'm ahead.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
matticus
Guru
I think he was answering this question:
(and yes I know 7 isn't 6 ... )
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Lol to that! Name your date for the reckoning - I'll take whatever you're happy with.
The bet was the Germany would have less than the UK per capita.
Blackcurrant jam is my favourite, but if you have damson, that would be a close second.
Minimal might be a tad exaggerated. The total has just gone through the 10 million mark. It is starting to lower the death rate, which at least in the second wave was still 40% in care homes. That's a disgrace, as the idea was to test everyone entering them, which clearly hasn't been fully implemented.
There are measures which if taken can hold the third wave in check, and it is a race against time to get more people vaccinated. I believe there should be an AZ decision today, but it will be difficult to win back acceptance for it.
The current figures are in https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html
The map has the percentages for each state/Land, the graph below has the cumulative total to date (just about legible!) and the graph below that the percentage of the population - light blue first dose and darker blue second dose.
Living here it is extremely frustrating that this level of vaccination might have been achieved a month or more earlier and made the third wave less dangerous.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Ok, thanks.
