Page may contain affiliate links. Please see terms for details.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Well, the modelling shows very wide uncertainty and the clear potential for both a large wave and a very small wavelet.
And I guess it depends to an extent on the measure (cases, deaths or hospitalisations) and how big a wavelet is before it becomes a wave.
So I've no idea why you're so certain.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
An epidemic wave is the area between minima of less than two thirds of a peak that meets some minimum height requirement.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
A wavelet is a blip, as seen in medicine on a heart monitor. It goes below zero, which cases, deaths and hospitalisations cannot. A wavelet is not simply a small wave.
matticus
Guru
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
And they're off!!
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Yes, I'm fairly sure that many users of the term "wavelet" are hoping to marginalise, minimise and dismiss the impact of the fourth wave before it happens, to reduce the impact on Johnson's government and keep the feelgood factor of the vaccine success rather than remind people of the extra deaths resulting from repeated balls-ups of testing, tracing and restrictions or the chumocracy PPE contracts and so on.
It is and isn't pedantry. If people redefine well-defined terms then it causes confusion, especially looking back at historical publications, and I don't want to stand idly by and let people do that about a matter of life and death.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Isn't that admissions going below zero? I guess it depends if "hospitalisation" is the number hospitalised or the number being hospitalised. Taking a cue from the "Vaccinations" counter, I was taking it to be the number currently hospitalised.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
That's your accusation not mine. Comrade Bay was ignored yesterday due to a spate of posts obfuscated by intermittent bold, varying height and no line breaks, but I'll take them off again now for a bit...
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
To be frank, I thought 'wavelet' might get a nibble. Result! I am, among other recreational activities, a sailor, and use: F*Big wave, wave, and wavelet in descending order of size (and effect on the hull). If I'd known that 'wavelet' was a "well-defined term" and using might "cause confusion"
then perhaps I should have said a 'slight upward fluctuation'. Perhaps @mjr could constructively offer a term that describes that in whatever metric chosen.I enjoy posting on CycleChat and appreciate the effort other posters make with their posts.
Compared to the two ghastly, 'NHS straining but not breaking' deadly waves peaking (hospitalisation measured in bed occupancy by C19 +ve patients) on 11 Apr 2020 and 18 Jan 2021, any future fluctuation where dC/dt = 0 and d^2C/dt^2 (C = cases) is less than zero will have a very low peak (see the graph below - 5a green line as an example modelled for SPI-M-O). The UK's national governments' decision on a phased relaxation of the many restrictions (NPIs), the stated intent to be guided by data as opposed to sticking to dates (with the 'not earlier than' caveat) and the accelerating progress of the vaccination programme all mean the peak of an upward fluctuation will be low. An emerging VoC may disrupt that model.
As @rt roughly said "hope for a wavelet; plan for a (low) wave".
My use of bold in my herd immunity calculation post was to highlight specific key assumptions about effectiveness, vaccine take-up, R and the result.
And as for criticising the use of a smaller font for one letter, I thought "Rt" was better than "Rt". R0 is the 'base' R for C19. Some (well one at least) may not think so. Line break? No, me neither.
Last edited:
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released the latest data on deaths in England and Wales, including deaths from COVID-19, up to 5 March.
I would like to use a different metric than 'deaths' but it's the best one to use to reflect impact.
Deaths in the first week of March are 3.7% above average (2015-19) and we might expect that the number of deaths will fall below the five-year average in the next week or two.
Pretty clear signs of effects of vaccinations on deaths. Covid-19-related deaths in over 70s fell by almost a third in just the most recent week, while deaths in those aged up to 69 fell by a much smaller amount (17%). It’s impossible to be sure that these differences are all due to vaccination, but they must be to a very considerable extent. With vaccination of the over 70s all complete by 14 Feb and uptake at 96+%, we might hope for even more positive signs the next time these data are published as the vaccine will have had time to generate full (for first dose) effectiveness.
The virus continues to cause a large number of deaths each week, though. Total deaths in England and Wales in the latest week = 11,592, and of those 2,105 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)". In contrast, since October deaths from causes other than Covid-19 are below average – latest week about 1,700 below. Lockdowns reduce other infections as well as Covid-19. Also non-Covid-19 deaths will be reduced compared to the average because some people, who might have died from some other cause about now, were sadly taken by Covid-19 at an earlier date.
I would like to use a different metric than 'deaths' but it's the best one to use to reflect impact.
Deaths in the first week of March are 3.7% above average (2015-19) and we might expect that the number of deaths will fall below the five-year average in the next week or two.
Pretty clear signs of effects of vaccinations on deaths. Covid-19-related deaths in over 70s fell by almost a third in just the most recent week, while deaths in those aged up to 69 fell by a much smaller amount (17%). It’s impossible to be sure that these differences are all due to vaccination, but they must be to a very considerable extent. With vaccination of the over 70s all complete by 14 Feb and uptake at 96+%, we might hope for even more positive signs the next time these data are published as the vaccine will have had time to generate full (for first dose) effectiveness.
The virus continues to cause a large number of deaths each week, though. Total deaths in England and Wales in the latest week = 11,592, and of those 2,105 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)". In contrast, since October deaths from causes other than Covid-19 are below average – latest week about 1,700 below. Lockdowns reduce other infections as well as Covid-19. Also non-Covid-19 deaths will be reduced compared to the average because some people, who might have died from some other cause about now, were sadly taken by Covid-19 at an earlier date.
