Coronavirus outbreak

[Pale Rider]

Lol to that! Name your date for the reckoning - I'll take whatever you're happy with.

The bet was the Germany would have less than the UK per capita.

Blackcurrant jam is my favourite, but if you have damson, that would be a close second.

Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.

Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.

I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Why only the last six months?

I chose 6 because in both countries the rate was flat in mid September (mid March minus 6 months) and before the second wave started. I thought @dm's "7" months arbitrary. I looked for a sensible 'start' to the relevant winter wave.
The 7 month figures are: Germany: 64,566 and UK: 84,371. I took the UK 6 month figure from the gov.uk website.
HTH

Minimal might be a tad exaggerated. The total has just gone through the 10 million mark. It is starting to lower the death rate,

In Germany first doses are at 8.2%. To give an idea of that, the UK reached 8.2% first doses on 21 Jan. Is there evidence that "it's starting to lower the death rate"?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.

Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.

I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.

I'm very, very confident the precise date won't matter.

Midsummer?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Agreed on the per capita, but picking a day which is fair to both sides is not easy, because unlike a horse race, there is (regrettably) no defined finishing line for the virus or even likely there will ever be one.

Thus waiting for the last Covid deaths to be registered in both countries is not an option.

I had some time in June in mind on the basis that's when most, if not all, official restrictions will have ended, and deaths, if not those who catch the virus, should be slowed to a trickle.

Germany needs to have more deaths in the next three months than in the rest of the pandemic together in order for me to be buttering bread.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.

A very fair point.

 

[Pale Rider]

I'm very, very confident the precise date won't matter.

Midsummer?

Agreed.

Midsummer's Day is June 24 this year.

Suggest you butter that bread @Pale Rider. Slightly tasteless metric to bet on, I hope you don't mind me saying.

@roubaixtuesday suggested the bet clearly in the spirit of knockabout forum discussion and I accepted it in the same spirit.

It does rather look like I'm on to a loser, but I shall still be interested to see how much of a poor second I come.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I chose 6 because in both countries the rate was flat in mid September (mid March minus 6 months) and before the second wave started. I thought @dm's "7" months arbitrary. I looked for a sensible 'start' to the relevant winter wave.
The 7 month figures are: Germany: 64,566 and UK: 84,371. I took the UK 6 month figure from the gov.uk website.
HTH

The 7 months reference was taken from the graph posted by @PK99 - which runs from Sept 1 to the present - with 7 months of persistently worse figures for the UK than Germany before swapping position earlier this month. But apparently we're not supposed to look at the 7 months....

 

[Ajax Bay]

The 7 months reference was taken from the graph posted by @PK99 - which runs from Sept 1 to the present - with 7 months of persistently worse figures for the UK than Germany before swapping position earlier this month. But apparently we're not supposed to look at the 7 months....

I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.

 

[PK99]

I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.

Discussion following my post https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6350332
has rambled off into a not very useful cul de sac of retrospection and who said what when...

The point I was making was that whereas the pattern to date has been similar across the countries shown with timing and amplitude of peaks varying but overall moving more or less in lockstep, the plot seems to show a break in the pattern - with UK no longer showing the same overall trend. From the original: "Not looking good over the Channel" where they seem to be in lockstep at the start of another peak

 

[mjr]

The point I was making was that whereas the pattern to date has been similar across the countries shown with timing and amplitude of peaks varying but overall moving more or less in lockstep, the plot seems to show a break in the pattern - with UK no longer showing the same overall trend. From the original: "Not looking good over the Channel" where they seem to be in lockstep at the start of another peak

That doesn't seem accurate to me. EU countries are all over the freaking range when it comes to trend (omitting some smaller-population countries for ease of reading, including UK to show how similar we are to Spain and Portugal):

(edited to replace graphic because I omitted Hungary)

 

[PK99]

That doesn't seem accurate to me. EU countries are all over the freaking range when it comes to trend (omitting some smaller-population countries for ease of reading, including UK to show how similar we are to Spain and Portugal):
View attachment 579205

(edited to replace graphic because I omitted Hungary)

Interesting plot. It highlights exactly the point I was making, thank you!

Over the channel - case numbers are increasing

In the UK (and on the Iberian peninsula), case numbers are falling.

Germany seems from this plot to be out of step with its neighbours. But the contrast in patterns is stark

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I hear why you selected '7' (cue dancing on a pin head by me) but there is a slight maths challenge: 1 Sep to 4 Mar, when the lines on @PK99's (FT/JH) graph Ge/UK case lines crossed, is not 7 months: it's 6.

Fair enough. I realised that I was all at sixes and sevens with my months while I was catching up on lost sleep just now. 6 months and a week or so...?

 

[mjr]

Interesting plot. It highlights exactly the point I was making, thank you!

It might highlight some point you wanted to make. It clearly shows that they are not "in lockstep".

Over the channel - case numbers are increasing

In the UK (and on the Iberian peninsula), case numbers are falling.

Germany seems from this plot to be out of step with its neighbours. But the contrast in patterns is stark

If the point is that case numbers are increasing in countries where they are increasing and falling in countries where they are falling, that's fairly safe, but the graph misleads about the channel now because now you deleted France, where numbers have levelled off again.

Here is a plot of Germany and its land neighbours, 7-day confirmed case averages for the last 3 months. Denmark and Switzerland track it most closely, but who is influencing who?

 

[PK99]

It might highlight some point you wanted to make. It clearly shows that they are not "in lockstep".


If the point is that case numbers are increasing in countries where they are increasing and falling in countries where they are falling, that's fairly safe, but the graph misleads about the channel now because now you deleted France, where numbers have levelled off again.

Here is a plot of Germany and its land neighbours, 7-day confirmed case averages for the last 3 months. Denmark and Switzerland track it most closely, but who is influencing who?
View attachment 579212

Thanks for the introduction to the data analysis tool you are using. It's very good and much better the the FT link I have been using.

This plot is illuminating:

I've taken it from 1 July as before then testing everywhere was pretty hit and miss.

Key observations:

EU & UK were tracking similarly till Early December with the outbreak seemingly under control.

The take-off of the New (Kent) variant in Early December took the UK away from the EU pattern, but at the same time the EU case rate stopped falling

Since then, the difference in the trajectories is dramatic. Time will tell whether the EU pattern is a ripple or the start of a new major peak

This more tangled plot reveals some of the fine grain texture hidden by the EU summary data in the first plot