Coronavirus outbreak

[MarkF]

The action for the second wave:

When do you think this second wave is going to arrive? Not the seasonal ripple we are predicitably experiencing, with a further ripple to follow later in winter (just like flu), but this calamitious second wave, when & why? The arrivals are different patients compared to spring, obese but younger, and the treatment and understanding way better, all the time the waiting lists grow............

I'll hold my hand up as soon as I appear wrong. But it's not my opinion of course, just the opinion of frustated professionals who have long been censored & professionally sanctioned. Luckily I happened across Michael Levitt months ago, I wouldn't trust anything I read in a newspaper right now.

 

[mjr]

I don't think the BMA are too worried about outdoor exercise.

I saw no suggestion that it should be exempted from the six rule in general?

More smaller subgroups are much a better idea than a few larger groups of more households.

Why is it better to spend time with maybe eighteen people over the course of a day than just six?

They have more a problem with households spending hours mixing indoors. They also more likely wanted to get out the idea that what ever the rule is it's a good idea for everyone to sink social bubbles.

They should suggest something about indoors, then, and I've no idea what sinking social bubbles means.

 

[tom73]

It appears from latest minutes that my views on the useless dithering of the govt are shared by their scientific advisers.

I can honestly say this brings me absolutely no pleasure whatsoever.

The lesson of the first wave:
Act rapidly or regret at length

The action for the second wave:
Dither at length. Regrets to follow.

It will now take many weeks of further social and economic pain, paid in unemployment and bereavement, to undo the blindingly obvious mistakes since the cretinous "Stop skiving. Save Pret. Catch Covid" message.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...roposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave

The 21st September and nothing by Wednesday that's 23 days worth of baked in hospital admissions and deaths. It's madness and totally preventable.
Yet again they don't hold back about test and trace either and again nothing has changed.
“this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment”.
“Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of test, trace and isolate will further decline in the future,”

 

[mjr]

Luckily I happened across Michael Levitt months ago, I wouldn't trust anything I read in a newspaper right now.

But you trust someone who forecast Covid would be over in the USA by 25 August? Assuming you don't mean the TV producer or the Canadian politician.

 

[MarkF]

Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........

 

[MarkF]

But you trust someone who forecast Covid would be over in the USA by 25 August? Assuming you don't mean the TV producer or the Canadian politician.

He was taken to task on that but you've got to admit, expressed himself well honestly and publically, no squirming. And has since been proved correct.

 

[MarkF]

We should not be using high % (perhaps 90%+) false positive "cases" for anything. We should be using only, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths and recoveries.

 

[classic33]

Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........

Why then have France upped the restrictions?
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-paris-restrictions-bars-close/

And a possible admission that Sweden did get herd immunity theory wrong.
https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-coronavirus-didnt-seek-herd-immunity-torbjorn-sohlstrom/

 

[classic33]

We should not be using high % (perhaps 90%+) false positive "cases" for anything. We should be using only, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths and recoveries.

As someone who's had many tests over the years, including blood tests, how accurate is any single test? And how do you know that it is a "false positive". Do you wait to be proven right, it is a "false positive" before you take any action. Get just one case wrong and if you're a medical professional who denied treatment, your career is as good as over.

I've been admitted as a result of these tests at times. Therefore, they count against me. At times the results shouldn't have been possible, but the human body reacts in many different ways. Not everyone reacts in the same way as each other.

 

[Edwardoka]

We've known about measles for over a thousand years. We know how to combat it, what effects it has on people. We have a vaccine. We can make predictions about disease progression 5, 10, 20 years down the line after primary infection. Bubonic plague still exists.

We have none of that for covid. It is completely new, and highly mutable.
We have literally no idea how it progresses nor what the relapse rate is, nor whether it lies dormant and can be reactivated given a set of conditions.

The idea that if everyone catches it it will magically be gone is complete and utter horse manure.

If my time on the planet has taught me anything, it's that we, as a species, are spectacularly short-sighted, and almostly entirely incapable of predicting or dealing with unintended consequences, or worse, when we do predict unintended consequences, we* brush them under the carpet and leave it to the following generations to deal with the fallout of our idiocy, hubris and inadequacy.

* People who stand to gain from the status quo

 

[Edwardoka]

 

[tom73]

Question for the let it rip supporters
Name any infectious disease that has gained herd immunity using nothing more than natural process, without the use of a vaccine, by improving living conditions or other social policy changers to improve public health ?
Hint we don't have any.

 

[mjr]

He was taken to task on that but you've got to admit, expressed himself well honestly and publically, no squirming. And has since been proved correct.

What happened when he was taken to task? Is he one of the ones who defended incorrect predictions as trying to stop people worrying?

How was he since proven correct? Covid is not over in the USA even now!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

This Michael Levitt fella seems very reliable, excellent track record.

https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/

The 10 deaths predicted in Israel was particularly notable!

I think we're in Feynman territory at this point.

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.”

 

[PK99]

As someone who's had many tests over the years, including blood tests, how accurate is any single test? And how do you know that it is a "false positive". Do you wait to be proven right, it is a "false positive" before you take any action. Get just one case wrong and if you're a medical professional who denied treatment, your career is as good as over.

I've been admitted as a result of these tests at times. Therefore, they count against me. At times the results shouldn't have been possible, but the human body reacts in many different ways. Not everyone reacts in the same way as each other.

For the individual a positive is positive and you act accordingly.

When assessing at the population level false positives are a key factor in understanding what is happening.