Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

North of Tyne Mayor Driscoll tas on TV pointing out that mayors aren't getting the support and powers needed to keep outbreaks under control until their areas are in the "very high" tier, when by definition then outbreaks are out of control. He points out this makes no sense.

 

[tom73]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
First reported reinfection in the US a number of things may have happened which can explain it. What's more a concern is a fit and healthy young person. Having got covid second time round ended up critical ill.
Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.

 

[mjr]

Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.

Early on, some stupid countries didn't test many of those admitted to hospitals, which then makes their reinfection only "suspected".

 

[roubaixtuesday]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
First reported reinfection in the US a number of things may have happened which can explain it. What's more a concern is a fit and healthy young person. Having got covid second time round ended up critical ill.
Given the large number of cases world wide you'd expect more reports. But given the high number of asymptomatic cases it's possible that many are not picked up first time.

I think the general view now is that sufficient people have tested positive in the past that if this was a major or common problem, it would be much more visible by now.

For instance, in the UK 600,000 people have tested positive (about 300,000 from the first wave). If reinfection were anything other than vanishingly rare, I think you'd expect many hundreds of second positives here by now, if second infections were symptomatic.

Of course, it's cautionary, may be more common with time, and may have vaccine implications too.

 

[mjr]

Ignoring the UK, I can see no "second wave" in any european country to date, ripples yes, but no second wave, why should we be different? Spain, France, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland...........

A wave breaking slowly and being broken up by being stamped on is still a wave. Let's wait and see. I hope we return to July/August levels soon but I suspect we won't because the government is doing only a small part of what its scientists recommend after three weeks of dither and delay.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I hope we return to July/August levels soon

Realistically, the chances of this happening are remote in the extreme. If we manage to drive down numbers, it's almost certain to be much slower than they came up. And Whitty made it clear yesterday that none of the tiers are expected to suppress the virus.

Perhaps the best case scenario is then three or four weeks of slower rising cases, followed by more restrictions, then a gradual fall through winter to spring. Even positive early vaccine news is likely too late to influence this now, and a huge shake up of the broken test track trace system doesn't seem on the cards.

Unless something really unexpected happens, like the dynamics being almost entirely down to students, and a rapid burn through that population drives overall numbers more than expected. Don't hold your breath.

 

[tom73]

I think the general view now is that sufficient people have tested positive in the past that if this was a major or common problem, it would be much more visible by now.

For instance, in the UK 600,000 people have tested positive (about 300,000 from the first wave). If reinfection were anything other than vanishingly rare, I think you'd expect many hundreds of second positives here by now, if second infections were symptomatic.

Of course, it's cautionary, may be more common with time, and may have vaccine implications too.

Yes was just a thought more than anything and like you say still leaves a few questions.
On second positives we don't count them as a case anymore if I've read the footnotes on numbers correctly.

 

[tom73]

@mjr I hope we return to July/August levels soon
Very much doubt it and even by a total sighting of a fly pig we did achieve it. The government have shown that they get all giddy and we lose it all again. Things will sadly get worse long before they get better.[/QUOTE]

 

[MrGrumpy]

It’s really a monumental f up. Track and trace seems broken. Even up here I’ve heard stories of folk handing over fake details when registering in pubs etc. Never quite understood why the rule of 6 down south could mean 6 different households meeting up !! Whereas up here it’s 6 but only two households . Big difference! No wonder it’s a bleeding mess.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Being on SAGE...

 

[mjr]

I did say "hope" above!

It’s really a monumental f up. Track and trace seems broken. Even up here I’ve heard stories of folk handing over fake details when registering in pubs etc.

That's because few trust Dido and Serco and the attempt to hold more data for longer reduced it further.

Never quite understood why the rule of 6 down south could mean 6 different households meeting up !! Whereas up here it’s 6 but only two households . Big difference! No wonder it’s a bleeding mess.

The difference is minor and basically irrelevant while there's no limit on how many sixes you can meet each day, week or even hour.

 

[mjr]

and a huge shake up of the broken test track trace system doesn't seem on the cards.

Do we know why not? Is it, as Gavin Esler has suggested, because we also have problems with "cronyvirus"?

 

[classic33]

Do we know why not? Is it, as Gavin Esler has suggested, because we also have problems with "cronyvirus"?

He said exactly the same about the Highway Code & cyclists, ten years ago.

 

[mjr]

He said exactly the same about the Highway Code & cyclists, ten years ago.

Link? It doesn't seem to have been posted on here before.

 

[classic33]

Link? It doesn't seem to have been posted on here before.

It's just a common expression used by him.