That’s probably why it got throw in a skip.
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DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
What is that supposed to show ?
It's the virus crawling across your living room floor.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
So, just for @SkipdiverJohn here's a projection of what would happen if we let it rip from here.
That's 200k deaths by Christmas, peaking at ~5k per day. The drop in R at about December is herd immunity starting to kick in.
Now, this won't be acceptable so people will shield themselves from the carnage and/or govt will make strong interventions to mitigate. Obviously track and trace would be entirely overwhelmed.
Hopefully this informs why nobody in public health thinks this a good idea and why govt is prepared to do almost anything to avoid it.
A little explanation here
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1314633560473710598
That's 200k deaths by Christmas, peaking at ~5k per day. The drop in R at about December is herd immunity starting to kick in.
Now, this won't be acceptable so people will shield themselves from the carnage and/or govt will make strong interventions to mitigate. Obviously track and trace would be entirely overwhelmed.
Hopefully this informs why nobody in public health thinks this a good idea and why govt is prepared to do almost anything to avoid it.
A little explanation here
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1314633560473710598
In spring, there was little preparation, scant treatment knowledge, hysteria, catastrophic mistakes and a large amount of "dry tinder" potential victims. With what we know now and how things have changed, really, there would be 200k deaths by Christmas? Not remotely credible.
SkipdiverJohn
Deplorable Brexiteer
- Location
- London
Those charts are nothing more than scaremongering nonsense drawn up by number crunching geeks. The actual, real-world reality simply doesn't bear out any of this fantasy.
Despite the official positive test numbers being way higher than those back in March/April, hospitalisations and deaths are only a small fraction of those six months ago.
Take those countries with large outbreaks and roughly comparable living standards:- The USA has a population five times that of the UK, similar living standards, similar demographics, and a similar level of medical expertise. At it's worst, the virus was taking out around 2,000 people a day. Now, it's what, around 7-800 deaths a day, with around 40,000 reported cases a day? Brazil was previously highlighted in this thread. They are running around 600 deaths a day on a population of around 210 million. and Brazil has a lower per capita GDP than the UK, less developed healthcare overall, and a substantial population of shanty town slum dwellers. If you assume their outbreak and death toll is worse because of this, if you downscale Brazil to the UK's population size you would be looking at a worse case scenario of well under 200 deaths a day going forward.
Indulging in blatant scaremongering achieves nothing. What is patently clear is that the worst of the doom & gloom predictions simply haven't come to pass, and as the virus progresses through the populace, then the hospitalisations and deaths can only go one way - downwards for the simple reason the virus has an ever-diminishing number of potential targets it can afflict.
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
Small choice of rotten apples innit
My proposal, whilst not ideal is somewhat less hopeless than the suggestion of testing, tracking, tracing etc in an environment like Selly Oak. The cat's out of the bag and, like it or not, loads of students are going to get infected. The only question that should be exercising our thoughts is whether it's better to try to contain it or to let it run through the whole cohort ASAP.
Your think it's containment and I think you're wrong. Simple as that. Not because containment is a bad strategy. Just that the ship has sailed. Son #2 is in Selly and it's rampant in the private student accommodation there. It's too late to try to close the door
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
This is what's known as denial. When facts are simply too difficult to confront.
The virus has already killed nigh on 60,000 with no evidence of herd immunity. Yet you simply can't face the reality that unsuppressed, many more will die.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Please explain what would drive down R if we don't take action?
midlife
Guru
Hospitals are starting to ration Covid treatment drugs at the moment, not sure how many hospital cases it would take to fill our hospitals again......
Back in March/April, the only significant testing being carried out was for hospital admissions. The testing numbers now are for community and hospital admission infections - you are not comparing like with like. To be fair, virtually every covid graph in the papers at the moment shows one that has the hospital infection numbers at one end of the axis and "community included" infections at the other as if somehow they were a single data source.
No-one really knows what the community infection rate actually was in March and April because there wasn't even the capacity to test care home patients, let alone the general public, but there are estimates of a peak of around 80,000+ cases a day. It is going to be some weeks until we get to those levels but unless something happens to stop it, either voluntary or imposed behaviour changes, it is an inevitable consequence of exponential growth.
More info here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219029/
When I last looked a while back, there were other estimates but they were all in the same zone.
classic33
Leg End Member
These are total beds available in local ICU's.
BRI has increased to 16 beds,
Calderdale has 6 beds,
Huddersfield has 8.
Doesn't seem as though it'd take much to fill them.
Ahem. Widely quoted as 100,000 a day. And if you have looked recently you'll be aware of much higher, the highest estimate I am aware of is 315,000 at the peak.
You are in a funny mood. I'm not sure why you thought live tv pictures of Italian tv required a fact check when millions of people around the world saw it live, including commentary as to where the convoy was!!!!
Eh? I posted the Snopes link earlier because there were many fruitloop reports at the time claiming the convoy images were fake, so i thought I would stop any similar claims here when I referred to it as a consequence of health service collapse. What's the problem?
And why does 80,000+ cases get criticised/corrected when the report link I gave has a median of 117,000? 80,000 was the lowest figure claimed that I knew of, hence 80,000+
