Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Most of the examples I have heard of people having to isolate twice are students. It will be 3rd 4th and 5th times by the end of the year.

Again it's a double standard by the super rich of the UK who had to isolate for 7 days in March or haven't had to in their large homes with spacious work from home arrangements.

 

[mjr]

Its been all over the news, do pay attention 😂

I didn't notice it. Only a load of loose talk. Should be easy enough for you to post a link, if the plan has been published...

 

[mjr]

View attachment 551412

I think it's widely-known that case confirmations are higher partly because of more testing, so what you're seeing there isn't that there are more cases now, but just that cases were unreported during the first wave.

Hospitalisations aren't affected by more testing, though:

 

[classic33]

Locally, cases doubled in the last 24 hours. At least two households, with 4 positive cases between them.

The adults did enjoy their "economic activity", even going into each others houses to enjoy it. For one household, it's the second time in two months. The last time they self isolated by going on holiday for 12 days.

One of the positives however isn't yet in double figures age wise. How do you explain what they've now to do because the "responsible" adults in the house couldn't, and didn't behave.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I didn't notice it. Only a load of loose talk. Should be easy enough for you to post a link, if the plan has been published...

I am sure you can check that yourself. It’s not hard.

 

[mjr]

I am sure you can check that yourself. It’s not hard.

Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Turnip meringue pie. Yum.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.

That's commendably polite of you.

 

[MarkF]

I think it's widely-known that case confirmations are higher partly because of more testing, so what you're seeing there isn't that there are more cases now, but just that cases were unreported during the first wave.

Hospitalisations aren't affected by more testing, though:

But a "hospitalisation" can occur within hospital with patients admitted with something entirely unrelated. We are seeing a huge distortion of data. Death figures are much harder to manipulate of course.

As an aside, I am seeing totally different patients to spring and it's a positive. Generally, in spring it was 2 types, old/ill//frail what the hospital terms "end of days" patients and then younger but morbidly obese ones. What they often had in common was that they were struggling to breathe, they were in a bad way. Now the patients are younger, mobile and rarely even on oxygen, obesity is still an issue but you don't fear for them them like in springtime. I hope it continues like this through winter.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Well, it doesn't look to me like any plan has been published, so I conclude that you were selling turnips as lemons.

Well when the person responsible for uk vaccine rollout says the plan is x. It’s reasonable to assume that’s the plan. Or do you need everything in writing, in the belief that once written down, it can’t change?

 

[marinyork]

Far from it being easily fixed, we can't completely isolate students from the "gown towns" hosting them. We can't even isolate them from their universities because some courses have essential lab or practical work that will put them in contact with Teaching Assistants at least, so now you've got to confine TAs and they're not as young as the students, so there will be a death toll, probably including many of our country's future researchers and lecturers.

And then you've got the problem of natural immunity maybe not lasting more than a couple of months, so do you have to do this all again next term? And the term after that? And next year? How long will it be before the "virtually zero" death toll doesn't look so zero? Do we know much about reinfection survival yet? And how many would suffer long-covid symptoms?

It's about a third of the city centre here.

The thing is if you're going to mess about like that, you might as well get some of them on the vaccination program.

It's also misguided from the timings point of view. Although political noises have a lot to do with it it's believed 2 trials may have preliminary results in November. What happens if the results find that due to compromised immune systems and underlying conditions the first vaccine out has a problem and it might be better to vaccinate targeted places in the general population? You get hundreds of thousands of students infected, some have a rough time and some get so called long covid or are hospitalised and then find in 1-2 months that you want to give the vaccine to working age populations or maybe even students! Or even the second and third tranches of vaccine come along in the summer terms (if things run early) at uni and they are higher up the pecking order than some other groups. They've had the virus needlessly. These scenarios are not so far fetched as people think they are.

 

[classic33]

In fairness John raises a good point. You have a lot of very young people in nearby proximity who are highly unlikely to get seriously ill. Get them all together parting and they will all have a few months worth of antibodies mean when they see nan for Christmas they will not make her ill. Rather than try and isolate them into their rooms and allow it to spread slowly. If there is no vaccine on the horizon this is exactly the thing we need to be doing. Getting herd immunity through the young and fit. University halls are the perfect petri dishes.
Brilliantly simplistic. Brilliant.

Wonder if those in them feel okay being part of an experiment.
Worth remembering that not all petri dishes provide the expected results.

 

[marinyork]

Well when the person responsible for uk vaccine rollout says the plan is x. It’s reasonable to assume that’s the plan. Or do you need everything in writing, in the belief that once written down, it can’t change?

She was covering her back.

This was actually what JCVI said

1. Older adults resident in a care home and care home workers
2. All those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
3. All those 75 years of age and over
4. All those 70 years of age and over
5. All those 65 years of age and over
6. High-risk adults under 65 years of age
7. Moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
8. All those 60 years of age and over
9. All those 55 years of age and over
10. All those 50 years of age and over
11. Rest of the population (priority to be determined)

This assumed a moderate effectiveness in all age groups (which is quite theoretical with some of the vaccine types).

 

[brodiej]

View attachment 551412

Where is that graph from?

It's clearly wrong - it shows confirmed deaths as less than 100 even at the peak and vitually 0 now despite there being over a thousand a day at the peak and over 70 a day now with a clear uptick happening

Here is the latest Our World in Data graph of deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

 

[pawl]

You keep on going on about immunity to this, but how do you know there is any when the experts are uncertain on the matter.

He obviously has a crystal ball .Needs to check the input control or clean the glass because the input he is receiving sounds a load of crap.