Coronavirus outbreak

[icowden]

Similar modelling was one reason SAGE came up with a sneeze raising the risk by up to 1500 times.

The problem is that it isn't just the sneeze. It's also about the environment that the sneeze is in. If a few droplets hit you, you are less likely to be infected than if a thousand droplets hit you. Being outside or in a well ventilated are means that aerosol droplets get dispersed quickly

Interesting article here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html

 

[tom73]

Nothing new in that a paper i've link on here covers all that and a summary of risk and environment.
How long the droplet hang around is still unknown pioneering UK research into this is just underway. It's key that greater understanding of this is fed into covid secure guidelines. Moreover until we do know more many of the this that can't open will have to stay closed.
A trail is also about to start into mask use and exercise to better understand what role they can play in source control.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Another overly complex raft of measures from ScotGov today, full of ifs buts and exceptions. This is just going to annoy more people.

 

[mjr]

Belgium taking action as new cases nationally exceeds 22 per 100k with some big variations, so they are now in "orange alert":
- maximum of 4 per table in cafes and bars nationally (unless all one household) and earlier closing (11pm IIRC), 8 per table at home, 10 at work canteens.
- "social bubbles" cut to 4 (=you +3; was 6 or 8 I think), as are outdoor gatherings.

Brussels region: 500+ new cases per 100k. All cafes, exhibition halls and indoor sports to close for a month. Cafes complaining "why not restaurants too?" It seems red alert rules were not as finished as green, yellow or orange. Government ministers to quarantine+test after one tested positive.

Flemish Brabant province: it includes Brussels's northern fringes but has refused to close its bars. Masks now mandatory, though: if you're not wearing one (because outdoors away from a town centre, for example), you must be carrying one.

Walloon region: government ministers to quarantine and test after one tested positive.

Liege city fair cancelled. Showmen livid as they've already transported all their rides and shows to the city.

It'll be interesting to see if this is enough. The UK should be watching Belgium, France and Ireland to try to learn what works (or doesn't, as I suspect Flemish Brabant are about to demonstrate).

Another interesting snippet from Belgium: they reckon 10x uni students are asymptomatic than uni professors. That seems a massive difference and I think it's bigger than feared. It would help explain why student hotspots are so big.

 

[MichaelW2]

I'd like to see a journalist asking what the test and trace numbers mean. Are the government pleased or frustrated that each positive person they contacted had an average of 5 to 6 high risk contacts.

The Radio4 program "More or Less" takes a mathematical look at these figures almost every week.

 

[tom73]

Another overly complex raft of measures from ScotGov today, full of ifs buts and exceptions. This is just going to annoy more people.

Oddly it glossed over universities and only for 2 weeks not sure that will be enough.

 

[tom73]

See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration.
Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration.
Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.

Expert responses. Very well worth a read.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

 

[roubaixtuesday]

See the cranks are at it again with the Great Barrington Declaration.
Some pretty hard right in the mix as for the Oxford bunch not one has a single peer review paper on COVID transition.

Sunetra Gupta, one of the authors has been predicting the end of the pandemic due to herd immunity since it started.

Just for example

https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta/

It does make you wonder what it would take for her to change her mind.

 

[tom73]

I thought it was pretty nailed with this.
The Great Barrington Declaration is a libertarian agenda, packaged as science".

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lb9cidVAYs&feature=youtu.be

 

[Richard1967]

What is in no doubt now the long term damage to our economy is going to be felt

 

[tom73]

What is in no doubt now the long term damage to our economy is going to be felt

Much of that could have been avoided if we’d got on top the virus when we had a chance. The long term health effects of not hitting this hard is yet to come though in economic effects. Which can’t be fixed by bail outs or other fiscal ideas.

 

[Richard1967]

Much of that could have been avoided if we’d got on top the virus when we had a chance. The long term health effects of not hitting this hard is yet to come though in economic effects. Which can’t be fixed by bail outs or other fiscal ideas.

I think anyone would struggle to defend the UK’s response to this, but even countries who did respond well are now seeing a resurgence, Germany had nearly 4000 cases yesterday.

 

[Mo1959]

Did anyone see the bit on the news about the people suffering from long Covid symptoms too? They only had mild symptoms at the time but are still suffering and needing physio in some cases. This is going to cost the country for so many years to come. I hope the government is going to be prepared to do all they can to ensure the NHS are up to the task of not only dealing with this disease but all the aftermath. As for many businesses, I am really fearful that a large percentage just won't make it through this.

 

[tom73]

Did anyone see the bit on the news about the people suffering from long Covid symptoms too? They only had mild symptoms at the time but are still suffering and needing physio in some cases. This is going to cost the country for so many years to come. I hope the government is going to be prepared to do all they can to ensure the NHS are up to the task of not only dealing with this disease but all the aftermath. As for many businesses, I am really fearful that a large percentage just won't make it through this.

A lot of work is going into this I do know some important NHS plans are coming along with rapid reviewed NICE guidelines. Also know that the need to improve and formally set out Long covid treatment. Has now got backing from high up in the health service. Along with funding to do it.
Given the current large outbreaks in uni's across the country students and staff need to start talking about this and be one the look out for it.
Uni's need to get staff and students up to speed and health care on and off campus will also need to be on it pretty quick. I only know of one uni who's said anything and that was very limited.
County wide long covid need's to be added to any public health messaging around covid. The continuing message that it only effect's the old
ect has become engraved into people's minds. That need's to change and the press also need to stop re-enforcing "the for most it's mild and nothing to worry" about message.