Coronavirus outbreak

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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Like I've posted I'm sorry about this post of mine, it was posted in anger over the non-mask wearing idiots in the local shops

There is nothing to say sorry for.

Chuffing supermarkets. Once a week is enough for me.

Outside is not something people really agree on. Some see it as a broadly similar risk to inside (I do not). Others don't.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already.

My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.

We will see.

The peak could be very, very flat. That doesn't disagree with the lower bound of what I said and it being very flat. Sadly I don't think 20,000 cases is that unrealistic at all. I don't think we'll ever get on top of it until a few vaccines come along and even then it'll take 6 months to a year to dampen it a lot and even after vaccines there will probably be outbreaks.

The level of restrictions in other European countries is interesting as as reported on paper some seem less restrictive than here.
 

midlife

Guru
But on the briefing the other day it was said that school kids testing positive is not increasing so why shut schools?

Yep, true, but wondering what Boris will do next. Something national not local. Just thinking.

Two week half term coupled with two weeks of essential house leaving only.......Work, food, pharmacy otherwise stay at home for two week circuit breaker. And blaming it on us.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
12,872 new cases reported Saturday, with a sidenote about delays.
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Which ever stat you look at things are still going the wrong way. Our local hospital now has covid cases again :sad:
Interesting that more women are testing positive than men. Are they more likely to go for a test or more likely to be at risk due to traditional gender roles ? Anyone seen any papers on it ?
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Which ever stat you look at things are still going the wrong way. Our local hospital now has covid cases again :sad:
Interesting that more women are testing positive than men. Are they more likely to go for a test or more likely to be at risk due to traditional gender roles ? Anyone seen any papers on it ?

There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020

not read it.

A take from elsewhere

"The auto-antibody finding is especially exciting, said the consortium member and infectious diseases physician Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu of Imperial College London, because 95% of severe patients who carry the auto-antibodies are male and over 50. “It explains the age and gender bias that we’re seeing in the severe patient population,” she says."

On the takeup of tests, nope not seen anything. There's a lot buried in the more detailed ONS/PHE figures sometimes though.
 
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DCLane

Found in the Yorkshire hills ...
Where I live we've had restrictions since early August. Some of the areas nearby with similar restrictions have seen an increase in cases but nowhere near as much as elsewhere - those areas are now under restriction.

The university cities/towns are seeing cases increase from students congregating and mingling, but maybe those restrictions are having an effect?
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020

not read it.

A take from elsewhere

"The auto-antibody finding is especially exciting, said the consortium member and infectious diseases physician Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu of Imperial College London, because 95% of severe patients who carry the auto-antibodies are male and over 50. “It explains the age and gender bias that we’re seeing in the severe patient population,” she says."

On the takeup of tests, nope not seen anything. There's a lot buried in the more detailed ONS/PHE figures sometimes though.
The author's name isn't helping!
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
There was a paper on auto-antibodies https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585 Bastard et al. Sep 2020

not read it.

A take from elsewhere

"The auto-antibody finding is especially exciting, said the consortium member and infectious diseases physician Vanessa Sancho-Shimizu of Imperial College London, because 95% of severe patients who carry the auto-antibodies are male and over 50. “It explains the age and gender bias that we’re seeing in the severe patient population,” she says."

On the takeup of tests, nope not seen anything. There's a lot buried in the more detailed ONS/PHE figures sometimes though.

Will take a look
Your right about ONS/PHE stuff it can at times take some time to work though. Some of the graphs are not that reader friendly either.
 
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