Coronavirus outbreak

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tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Daily figures, especially at weekends with the reporting issues, while of interest, do not mean as much as weekly trends.

I must admit to almost ignoring the daily national figures, as there is a great variability between the regions, and take more notice of the trends and graph directions.

It is people's lives but slight delays in publishing some daily figures has little or no impact on the numbers of cases or lives lost.

It has when the delayed reported cases don’t get passed on to track and trace. Which now has been confirmed are around 16,000.
 
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It has when the delayed reported cases don’t get passed on to track and trace. Which now has been revived are around 16,000.

I agree that was a terrible error if unreported cases didn't get passed on.

Another reason that too much importance is placed on daily national totals.
 

midlife

Guru
The rolling mean comprise a number of daily totals so it's not unimportant. I was just curious as today's figures seem to be missing
 

classic33

Leg End Member
If that was the question, then it's a scandal that he fluffed it. It's bleeding obvious from the new cases map why the north is lockding down again and London isn't yet:
View attachment 550716
"The total number of COVID-19 cases identified in London is 50,272 as at 30 September 2020
This compares to a figure of 383,553 cases for England as a whole

In the most recent week of complete data, 19 September 2020 - 25 September 2020, 3,246 cases were identified in London. This compares with 1,912 for the previous week."


https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

London appears to have shrunk on that infograph.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Hancock in a video interview for party conference.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-downloads-for-covid-19-app-says-matt-hancock
In his interview with Ali, Hancock said he wanted to see a greater sense of shared responsibility between individuals and the NHS for preventing people falling ill.
“I think for too long the NHS has [been] picking up the pieces when things go wrong and instead we need more of a sense of shared responsibility – individual people, everybody, responsible for their own health as well as the NHS taking responsibility to keep people healthy in the first place,” he said.

Shared responsibility ok that’s true in part but what about the government much of ill health is down to lack of social policy and poverty. The NHS and individuals can’t fix that they can’t fix lack of funding either.
Be nice if you showed a bit of shared responsibility all round.

He also said the app “gone off the shelf like digital hotcakes” downloads don‘t show how many are really using it. As no data is collected on why people ask for a test or believe they need one. Or why they feel they need to self isolate. You will never know if it‘s a success or not.
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Not seen this talked about much
The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
“There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."

Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?
 
Not seen this talked about much
The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
“There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."

Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?

She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.

n
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Not seen this talked about much
The head of Uk vaccine task force has told the FT that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated against coronavirus.
“There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18," she said. "It's an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable."

Turns out Kate Bingham is biotech venture capitalist. Is anyone heading up any of the counties response to COVID an expert in public health, science, or medicine ?

It's been mentioned a number of times by Kate Bingham, the government and their advisors about the not the whole population. This is also blindingly obvious from statements the government has made about securing vaccines.

This comment is more worrying as it suggests the government have made their mind up and the evidence on how effective vaccines (plural) are is very much unsettled (the government may have some info about how particular ones seem to be doing).

Short of further research about the immune system and interferons and particular antibodies/auto-antibodies as mentioned recently with a mass test, it is going to be difficult to decide who has it, but there is a lot of data for the government to make an informed choice.

When the time comes the government will have to be open and honest about who gets the vaccine and why and it's drawbacks.

E.g. completely made up numbers. But for some of the vaccines the profile may be something like
over 85s protects 30% of patients
65-84 protects 50% of patients
50-64 protects 65% of patients
40-49 protects 85% of patients
18-39 protects 90% of patients, another 9% register no symptoms and are less infectious

and then it'll depend on treatments available at the time and what vaccines are available at what time. It's not infeasible that one of the first available vaccines is terrible at protecting older patients but fantastic in younger patients. What do you do then?

Rather stupidly it may have to be rowed back upon as with around 20 million more than just those very at risk it may be decided say it's a good idea vaccinating first year university students or people that live in very high density housing.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
She has a strong background in managing biotechnology research, development and delivery. Yes, that is in private industry but she will not be actually developing the drugs.....there are experts for that. Her responsibility will be involvement in the development and delivery programme, under the control and management of the government.

It's the delivery bit I'm worried about.

It's no mean task actually getting it in the arms of millions of people. A task that is non-optimally performed every year with the flu vaccine.
 
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