Coronavirus outbreak

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tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Northumbria university, confirmed 770 students have tested positive. The big thing to note is only 78 of whom are symptomatic. The lesson here is mask up everyone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54394199
 

roubaixtuesday

self serving virtue signaller
Deaths and infections may go very high, perhaps 20,000-50,000 cases per day and 200-400 deaths per day, then behaviour will change, more restrictions that just a third of the UK population and it'll level off and fall very slowly over 3-5 months. In the past various sources have said they think the peak will be in November again not that that helps that much as they are aware it may then last all winter. November includes to the end of November so could be 8 weeks away.

Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already.

My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.

We will see.
 

midlife

Guru
Has I been mentioned about half term holiday in September, apologies if it has but there are rumours that it's going to be extended. Perhaps a prelude to some sort of "circuit beaker"?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
I'm at Vader level.
But must you insist on the march playing the whole time you're in the shop?

Has I been mentioned about half term holiday in September, apologies if it has but there are rumours that it's going to be extended. Perhaps a prelude to some sort of "circuit beaker"?
September's gone. Let it go. We can't turn back the clock and undo the government's mistakes.
 

midlife

Guru
But must you insist on the march playing the whole time you're in the shop?


September's gone. Let it go. We can't turn back the clock and undo the government's mistakes.

Oops! October half term...
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Thanks for the rationale. I agree with the general thrust, but I think the peak will probably be lower- Spain seems to have peaked already.

My fear is that it simply continues at peak level for a very long time - we never get on top of it enough to really suppress it.

We will see.
That the worry we never got on top of it 1st time round. This time as soon as numbers start to drop the call for opening up is likely to even bigger. It’s now the in thing for MP to be open about questioning the need to keep anything. Fed by a ever growing public view of the same. Can’t see that changing unless things around messaging improve and deaths get to a figure that enough see as not acceptable or not worth the risk. If we do bottle it again which looks likely we are likely to be in this loop for some time.
The other big pinch point will be vaccine time (when ever that maybe)
Hard truths need to be said now it won’t be a passport to normal for some time and some measures will have to stay for some time. I don’t think many fully understand the massive job needed to get the vaccine rolled out not just making but the rest it even giving it is a massive challenge. A recent report believes it will take 30,000 trained staff going it full time for around a year.
 

raleighnut

Legendary Member
Possibly just over-cautious, which is more related to personality or severity of underlying health conditions than stupidity. Or as @mjr said.

Unless it can be proved that wearing a mask outdoors is actually harmful in spreading the virus there is nothing for anyone to criticise.
Yep fair enough, I think it was a reaction on my part to our local Co-op where roughly 1/3rd of people aren't wearing masks which has been getting on my wick for a couple of weeks. I apologise to you and to all the other members who have criticised my post I shouldn't have moaned about them wearing masks outside. :sad:
 

raleighnut

Legendary Member
No but what can expect when the basic message on ways of transmission are not being made clear in any government public health messaging. In wide open public spaces that allow for good social distancing it's not really required. But it makes perfect sense and should be encouraged in part enclosed public spacers which reduce good ventilation. Or in crowded public placers which make social distancing hard to achieve. Like my town centre for example also if you go from one shop to another it's a lot less bother just keep one on. As I do both I must be stupid or I have taken the time to read the evidence and asked a certain person who's qualified both in infection control and public health.
In city centres people are hopping between buses and or one building to another and in some cases they just can't be bothered to put them away and on again. That's fine from a habit point of view.
Like I've posted I'm sorry about this post of mine, it was posted in anger over the non-mask wearing idiots in the local shops
 
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