Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

There's a graphic on twitter that illustrates simply the benefits of protective measures to delay the epidemic and thereby reduce peak demand on hospitals >>>

View attachment 507823

I think we are going for the red option - Boris hinted there will a rough couple of weeks.

 

[kingrollo]

At 83, the Daily Mail got her at last. My mum has been self isolating since Saturday, is refusing to go for lunch, has sent me a to-do shopping list and I've got to leave the stuff in her garage because I work at the hospital.

Been told that I probably won't come into contact with any suspected cases, strange as they have no issues putting me confined spaced with worse virus's fully armoured with a pinny and gloves.

Define worse viruses ?

More lethal sure - but harder to transmit
The fatality rate of coranvirus is estimated at 1% - it has however show it can spread pretty rapidly

 

[MarkF]

If I got in a panic every time MRS 73 has nursed anyone with highly infectious illness I'd never leave my bed.

Yes, there are wards where nurses and health care assistants do that as a daily full time job. My heart sinks if I have to go on such a ward once a day.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

For info the only social distancing enacted in HK was to close schools and stop large scale public gatherings. There were and are no limitations on public transport, restaurants, museums, shops etc etc etc
HK has a population who knows the drill. They are voluntarily staying at home. That, along with hand washing, is what has limited the virus' spread.
Chatting to friends in HK I was amazed the MTR wasn't closed. They explained that it was really quiet anyway as people stayed at home voluntarily
So by the same token we could close schools and ban large public gatherings (I suspect we are getting close to these now). Beyond that we could stop it in its tracks like HK has done by voluntarily applying social distancing and washing our hands. Whether the UK population is willing to do that is another matter

I should also add that the HK Government allowed most civil servants to work from home for nearly a month from late January, which set an example, and putting heavy moral pressure on firms with employees who could work from home. I am also pretty sure they did ban games/matches in all public sport stadiums large and small, I happened to be there at the time.

People there seem conscientious and happy to adopt the measures, I don't know if I would assume Brits won't, since the number will increase rapidly daily to c1000 even if we were to start today. Businesses there, including many public buildings, and I hear the larger restaurants, are testing body temperature (using infrared thermometer gun on the forehead usually) of everybody going in, barring anyone who has a fever, thereby seriously discouraging those with symptoms to carry on their daily business as usual. In public, I hear if you don't wear a mask, you would be looked at like a pariah by everybody - it is considered highly inconsiderate and selfish.

Thing is, it works.

By just telling people to wash their hands, essentially the government is squandering the time and experience made available by those who tried proactively and succeeded in slowing its transmission.

 

[GetFatty]

How is washing hands while singing Happy Birthday going to help Pat below?



Or all the crowds everywhere, in schools, offices, shops, trains, buses, hospitals... People are within 3 feet of each other all the time, none wearing any PPE.

The number infected in UK is already increasing exponentially, I am happy to stick my neck out and predict we will hit a thousand IDENTIFIED before this time next week, with the actual number a lot higher - not least because symptoms only appear 5 to 6 days after catching it. For example, the rapid exponential growth only slowed down 10 days after lockdown at Daegu. Without social distancing, we will be where Italy is today in around two weeks.

With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.

 

[fossyant]

At 83, the Daily Mail got her at last. My mum has been self isolating since Saturday, is refusing to go for lunch, has sent me a to-do shopping list and I've got to leave the stuff in her garage because I work at the hospital.

Been told that I probably won't come into contact with any suspected cases, strange as they have no issues putting me confined spaces with worse, or suspected worse virus's, fully armoured with a pinny and gloves.

This is why I'm so glad my MIL is in a Nursing home - it would be a nightmare now if she was at home - she was 'self isolating' to some extent as she couldn't get out'. You'll be doing the shopping run.

Make sure she does one list, and isn't constantly mithering you. MIL would give us a list, then add more when you'd come back with it - she used to do this to her husband when he was alive - no wonder he was exhausted.

 

[MichaelO]

I should also add that the HK Government allowed most civil servants to work from home for nearly a month from late January, which set an example, and putting heavy moral pressure on firms with employees who could work from home.

It'll be interesting to see what UK employers do with regards to WFH. I know of a few companies (including my wife's) that are starting "shifts" from next week by splitting the workforce in two and having one group WFH for a week while the others are in the office, and then alternative each week. Whereas, my place is currently reluctant to allow WFH at all.

 

[kingrollo]

With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.

That doesn't mean a thing - because we are only testing people who have symptoms AND have come from a high risk country or beleive they have been in contact with someone who has.

You ring NHS with a fever - and you won't be tested unless you meet one of those conditions.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Something that comes up on so many subjects is “Why don’t we do things like the Scandinavians/French/Canadians/Chinese/Golgafrinchans do“, without taking into account the very different cultures involved. From what I’ve read, Chinese people are very society orientated rather than focused on the individual and they’re also generally more accepting of authority. I can’t see Brits doing as they’re told quite so willingly, partly because we viciously attack authority at every opportunity and question everything, particularly if it causes any personal inconvenience. I doubt if a meaningful quarantine could be maintained on a large scale beyond a few days.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

There's a graphic on twitter that illustrates simply the benefits of protective measures to delay the epidemic and thereby reduce peak demand on hospitals >>>

View attachment 507823

It is interesting you show this, because the graph is somewhat famous, or more accurately notorious, because it is completely misleading. If we think the CDC (i.e. read USA) is credible in fighting the virus, we are doomed, aren't we?

Think about it, in Hubei, sure it was a sharp fast increase (like the red curve), but through their measures they managed to stop the rate of infection at 0.17% infected (i.e. c100,000) of the c60 millions. Tell me, if they did not practice social distancing, would the rate of infection be less than 0.17%, or higher? or a higher % on the whole 1.4 billion population of China?

In other words, is it not blindingly obvious that a proactive response will give you the red curve, while without it will deliver you a curve that is not shown on the graph at all?

To put it simply, the above chart is a joke, because in reality the only available options are: 1) a proactive hit on the spread, which would make it look like the red, while 2) the ONLY other alternative would be "like" the blue, except rising just as fast as the red, but reaching much higher, for longer, and HUNDREDS of times larger - that is what it will look like without proactive measures.

If anyone disagrees, please describe what other alternative scenario and result can possibly exist, and why?

 

[GetFatty]

That doesn't mean a thing - because we are only testing people who have symptoms AND have come from a high risk country or beleive they have been in contact with someone who has.

You ring NHS with a fever - and you won't be tested unless you meet one of those conditions.

That doesn't provide evidence of exponential growth either though. There is an awful lot of panic going on about Covid-19 although Prof Witty is doing his best to keep things calm on factual in the face of media sensationalism. I was closely involved in the swine flu epidemic and have seen this at work before.

Why do you think people are buying toilet rolls? Is it because of a fear we may run out or because people are saying "Everyone's buying toilet rolls" while others are saying "We're in a phase of exponential growth"

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It is interesting you show this, because the graph is somewhat famous, or more accurately notorious, because it is completely misleading. If we think the CDC (i.e. read USA) is credible in fighting the virus, we are doomed, aren't we?

Think about it, in Hubei, sure it was a sharp fast increase (like the red curve), but through their measures they managed to stop the rate of infection at 0.17% infected (i.e. c100,000) of the c60 millions. Tell me, if they did not practice social distancing, would the rate of infection be less than 0.17%, or higher? or a higher % on the whole 1.4 billion population of China?

In other words, is it not blindingly obvious that a proactive response will give you the red curve, while without it will deliver you a curve that is not shown on the graph at all?

To put it simply, the above chart is a joke, because in reality the only available options are: 1) a proactive hit on the spread, which would make it look like the red, while 2) the ONLY other alternative would be "like" the blue, except rising just as fast as the red, but reaching much higher, for longer, and HUNDREDS of times larger - that is what it will look like without proactive measures.

If anyone disagrees, please describe what other alternative scenario and result can possibly exist, and why?

The chart assumes that stopping the spread completely is not achievable, so the total infections (area under the curve) is the same whatever.

That assumption depends on transmission rates, duration and severity of restrictions, time to get a vaccine etc.

Until the virus has been eradicated, you can't say what shape the final curve will be. It may well return rapidly as soon as restrictions are lifted, or it may abate in the summer and not return, or it may abate then return in the winter.

The virus has not been eradicated, in China or anywhere else.

All you can say about the China results is that they are very impressive in the short term (if you trust them, of course).

 

[MichaelO]

The virus has not been eradicated, in China or anywhere else.

Probably not too far off in China. 60,000 of the 80,000 infected have made a full recovery - "only" 17,000 active cases remain.

 

[Dave7]

Just reading about what they say is "mass cancellations of Majorca cycling holidays".
My May cycling holiday is looking doubtful.
Not the worst thing that could happen to me compared to many poor souls and tbh I am expecting to lose it and possibly the money. Everything in context eh
https://www.majorcadailybulletin.co...ajorcan-hoteliers-devastated-coronavirus.html

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

With a total of 319 (as of 9am yesterday) I don't think you can say we've got exponential growth yet.

Really? If you had done the calculations on the numbers here (have you seen the curve in there?), you would have found that the average increase on the previous day, for the last 7 days, is 35.7%. If that is not exponential growth, what is?

IF the rate of increase on the previous day falls to 20% (the figure I have been assuming for the sake of discussion here) from now, it will be over 1000 before this time next week. If the rate of increase falls only to 25%/30%, the figures are 1500/2000 respectively.

You can look at the corresponding figures and graph for Italy here. You can see their daily compound growth remains 25% a day. We are just over two weeks behind them.

As I have said repeatedly, stopping infection today won't stop the exponential growth of the number (hence resource required and human tragedy) for a week or more.