Coronavirus outbreak

[cookiemonster]

It's a massive way off eradicated.

To eradicate it requires zero cases anywhere for at least two weeks.

Just once case can kick off the whole epidemic again.

They doctors here say that there has to be no cases for 28 days to be certain that the outbreak is over.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

I read that graph as: red zone = result of no control measures, blue zone = result of control measures. If we want to flatten the peak of infections & fatalities, don't we need to implement protective measures?

Perhaps I did not explain myself too well. If you want to stick with the labels being correct, i.e. the blue curve is with protective measures, then the red (uncontrolled) curve would not be anything like the red curve shown, but it will start like the blue curve, but going much higher, for much longer, with area underneath hundreds of times bigger. Does that make logical sense?

Based on what is known now, the chart and the associated thinking are completely bonkers, and indeed might have informed government rhetorics if not policy causing squandering of valuable time, like in the UK, talking about a control and delay phase to flatten out demands etc., when delay in social distancing can only increase and lengthen demands, what else can it achieve?

The only charitable thing I can say about the chart, is it might have made a little bit of sense before it was demonstrated to the world the virus could be controlled, by China and other areas.

 

[Blue Hills]

The science would suggest that we do a lockdown asap. The Government is waiting until public opinion is ready to accept it. That makes sense - if we do it too early then people just get fed up and break it and then when it becomes an epidemic nobody heeds it. Oh and the economy tanks.

A fair bit of evidence i think that the italian lock-down isn't being enforced too rigorously in any case, despite photo opps at railway stations.

 

[nickyboy]

At the risk of boring everyone, exponential growth can be slow or fast
For example, if the number of cases every day is 10% more than the previous day...that is exponential growth. It doesn't have to, for example, double every day to be called exponential. It just has to be "previous day x something"
The media (and posters here) make the mistake that "exponential growth" looks like that curve that races into the stratosphere. It can do, but equally the curve can be much more shallow and still be defined (by the scientists who are telling us what's what about CV) as exponential

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Does that make logical sense

No, not unless the "control measures" are enforced globally and rigorously indefinitely.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

No, not unless the "control measures" are enforced globally and rigorously indefinitely.

Just one case can kick off the whole epidemic again.

True. But I don't think anybody is saying anybody can and will rest on their laurels. I think this, Disease X essentially, is going to change various modus operandi globally forever.

I truly don't understand why would anybody think otherwise, or why believing this virus can't be controlled, or defend that chart assuming universal infection, when 100,000 is 0.17% of the Hubei population, and 0.007% of China's population, in terms of meaningful discussion and debate?

 

[Blue Hills]

Well the latest is that all of italy is pretty much of limits for brits for a fair while. Mass flight cancellations until sometime in april, govt advice not to go, and then if you do, and can get back, self isolate for 2 weeks even if no symptoms. Was due to fly out and if hadn't been mucked around flight would already have been booked. Austria also closed doors to Italians.
Hope pat's folks are OK.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

truly don't understand why would anybody think otherwise

Ah well, I did try.

I think this, Disease X essentially, is going to change various modus operandi globally forever

Interesting. Could you lay out what you think will change?

 

[Inertia]

A fair bit of evidence i think that the italian lock-down isn't being enforced too rigorously in any case, despite photo opps at railway stations.

I should imagine its also very difficult to enforce when people dont take it seriously or have their own priorities

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Interesting. Could you lay out what you think will change?

You don't ask easy question, do you? I am afraid I am still thinking about it, and lunch must come first...

 

[kingrollo]

That doesn't provide evidence of exponential growth either though. There is an awful lot of panic going on about Covid-19 although Prof Witty is doing his best to keep things calm on factual in the face of media sensationalism. I was closely involved in the swine flu epidemic and have seen this at work before.

Why do you think people are buying toilet rolls? Is it because of a fear we may run out or because people are saying "Everyone's buying toilet rolls" while others are saying "We're in a phase of exponential growth"

As I said the fact that we have tested 23,000 and have around 300 positives doesn't really tell us an awful lot anymore. We can't compare our stats to italy as they are testing in a different way

 

[kingrollo]

Does anybodys garmin calculate exponential growth ?

 

[glasgowcyclist]

Perhaps I did not explain myself too well. If you want to stick with the labels being correct, i.e. the blue curve is with protective measures, then the red (uncontrolled) curve would not be anything like the red curve shown, but it will start like the blue curve, but going much higher, for much longer, with area underneath hundreds of times bigger. Does that make logical sense?

Based on what is known now, the chart and the associated thinking are completely bonkers, and indeed might have informed government rhetorics if not policy causing squandering of valuable time, like in the UK, talking about a control and delay phase to flatten out demands etc., when delay in social distancing can only increase and lengthen demands, what else can it achieve?

The only charitable thing I can say about the chart, is it might have made a little bit of sense before it was demonstrated to the world the virus could be controlled, by China and other areas.

I'll confess you do have me confused. The graph is meant to show that by implementing strict control measures we can flatten the demand on our health service. The professor of biology who tweeted the graph (although he's not the author) used it to illustrate his comment that, "We have an opportunity to flatten the #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic curve by aggressive social distancing and other measures."

Isn't that what you've been calling for, social distancing etc?

 

[kingrollo]

Revised advice on saying safe - Wash your hands - but don't wipe your ass !

 

[fossyant]

Greek Orthodox church quote:-

“For the members of the church, attendance of the divine eucharist and the shared cup of life, of course cannot be a cause of transmission of illness,” the body of senior clerics said in the statement. “Believers of all ages know that attending communion, even in the midst of a pandemic, is both a practical affirmation of self-surrender to the living god and a potent manifestation of love, which vanquishes every human and perhaps justified fear.”

Really, Your elderly parishioners might diminish substantially. Let's blindly follow Religious preaching.