Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder

Help me to understand your position. You want to lock down the whole of the UK now. Is that right?
There is no hotspot in UK so partial lockdown (like Daegu in SK or Hubei in PRC) isn't of any use.
The science suggests that full lockdown isn't the right approach given where UK is in the epidemic cycle. Too much negative and not enough positive. That may change of course. I hope all the lessons learned in SK (which seems to have prevented an Italy situation) can be replicated here

The deputy chief medical officer has been on tv this morning and many here will have seen it.

That is going to puzzle a lot of people as they said many thousands will be infected in due course. No new measures is how people will see it. Except they also said these will be announced. When?

 

[kingrollo]

Help me to understand your position. You want to lock down the whole of the UK now. Is that right?
There is no hotspot in UK so partial lockdown (like Daegu in SK or Hubei in PRC) isn't of any use.
The science suggests that full lockdown isn't the right approach given where UK is in the epidemic cycle. Too much negative and not enough positive. That may change of course. I hope all the lessons learned in SK (which seems to have prevented an Italy situation) can be replicated here

My position is (and I fully accept I am not an expert) - that China seems to be coming out of the worst by implementing a lockdown. I expect UK cases to be close on 1000 by the weekend - and will pretty quickly ratchet up to 20,000

One people start dying in 100's - I believe we will have to implement a lock down. Would it not be better to do that earlier ? - If not would it be better to move in that direction sooner

Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

China seem to have had some success with the lock down. I wonder what would have happened if they had done it earlier?

Lets hope the lock down in Italy does work.

Personally I would have thought doing the lock down earlier would be better than waiting until things got really bad.

Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown?

2nd wave, lock down again?

British position seems tho be to let it run through the population, albeit at a slowed down rate. Once sufficient people have been exposed there's herd immunity.

At least that's my interpretation of our govt position.

 

[kingrollo]

Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown?

2nd wave, lock down again?

British position seems tho be to let it run through the population, albeit at a slowed down rate. Once sufficient people have been exposed there's herd immunity.

At least that's my interpretation of our govt position.

My interpretation is that at some stage we will do a lockdown - But we are waiting for things to get worse before doing such a lockdown. 2nd wave will still be a concern whenever we do the lockdown.

 

[alicat]

Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?

The science would suggest that we do a lockdown asap. The Government is waiting until public opinion is ready to accept it. That makes sense - if we do it too early then people just get fed up and break it and then when it becomes an epidemic nobody heeds it. Oh and the economy tanks.

 

[fossyant]

A colleague opposite me just said her husband had literally arrived in Italy to go Skiing on Saturday (not in a 'hotspot' as of Saturday). He's not been allowed to Ski, and is being sent home tomorrow. Two weeks isolation, and she is checking with HR if she will have to work from home/isolate as well.

 

[HMS_Dave]

Problem is, what happens when you stop the lockdown?

2nd wave, lock down again?

British position seems tho be to let it run through the population, albeit at a slowed down rate. Once sufficient people have been exposed there's herd immunity.

At least that's my interpretation of our govt position.

I read that it is likely now to be a seasonal thing at winter, like Rotavirus, Norovirus, Influenza etc but as the virus mutates they tend to get weaker and they'll be more chance of a vaccine by next winter. Which is great because down in this bunker i have built in my garden with 16 years worth of Toilet Paper and Anti-viral soap i completely forgot food and wearing this pickelhaube is pretty uncomfortable to be honest but im reliably informed it repels virus's, or was it people?

 

[MichaelO]

Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?

 

[kingrollo]

Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?

Yes

 

[nickyboy]

My position is (and I fully accept I am not an expert) - that China seems to be coming out of the worst by implementing a lockdown. I expect UK cases to be close on 1000 by the weekend - and will pretty quickly ratchet up to 20,000

One people start dying in 100's - I believe we will have to implement a lock down. Would it not be better to do that earlier ? - If not would it be better to move in that direction sooner

Where is the science suggesting an early lockdown isn't appropriate ? - WHO seem to think think countries should do it earlier ?

It's interesting that countries further along the curve such as Germany, France and Spain either haven't implemented any lockdown or if they have it's very targeted on a small hotspot

They must be going through the same assessment process as UK and coming to the same conclusion, even thought they are a couple of weeks advanced on us.

I'm not an epidemiologist so can't provide any insights. But it's interesting that only Italy has taken this approach. Maybe all the German, French, Spanish and UK experts and politicians are right?

For sure if the UK is wrong, Germany, Spain and France must be doubly wrong

 

[HMS_Dave]

Are the UK numbers (and probably other countries) lower than Italy's due to the testing protocol differences? In the UK you can only get a test if you have symptoms AND have been to a specific country (or in contact with someone who has been), whereas Italy are testing everyone with symptoms. Does that mean the UK is potentially hugely under-reporting?

I think I'm right in saying that Germany have approximately 4 times the cases than here in the UK and have 0 fatalities. That seems more bizarre to me...

 

[fossyant]

Hmm not sure if the NHS advice is particularly great. Colleague's husband should self isolate for two weeks, but she should carry on coming to work, until/if she shows signs of symptoms - I'd assume it's a bit late by the time symptoms start showing.

 

[HMS_Dave]

Hmm not sure if the NHS advice is particularly great. Colleague's husband should self isolate for two weeks, but she should carry on coming to work, until/if she shows signs of symptoms - I'd assume it's a bit late by the time symptoms start showing.

Far too late. The incubation period has well and truly passed...

 

[MichaelO]

I think I'm right in saying that Germany have approximately 4 times the cases than here in the UK and have 0 fatalities. That seems more bizarre to me...

They have had a couple of deaths, and 9 in serious critical condition
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[HMS_Dave]

They have had a couple of deaths, and 9 in serious critical condition
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Ahh quite recent then. But when you look at the broad picture of western cases to deaths ratio, Germany does seem to buck the trend...