Coronavirus outbreak

[PK99]

It's a difficult balance to be struck. China decided to throw the kitchen sink at it and it worked in terms of restricting the virus.

Only after lying and trying to cover up in the first few weeks. Like the Russians and Chernobyl, the apparatchiks first of all tried denial and cover up and only when the problem became irrefutably visible did they do anything - some weeks after the issue first became apparent.

RIP Dr Li Wenliang.

 

[Smokin Joe]

R4's Today programme interviewed The governments Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance this morning. He gave a clear and level headed summary of the likely effects which was a 20% infection rate with around 1% or less resulting in fatalities. Of course no one can be certain of the outcome, but it was in stark contrast to the hysterical screamings of papers like the Mail and the Express, which is where a few people here seem to be getting their information.

 

[kingrollo]

R4's Today programme interviewed The governments Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance this morning. He gave a clear and level headed summary of the likely effects which was a 20% infection rate with around 1% or less resulting in fatalities. Of course no one can be certain of the outcome, but it was in stark contrast to the hysterical screamings of papers like the Mail and the Express, which is where a few people here seem to be getting their information.

Sounds feasible.
Not much mileage has been given to the infection % per country .

 

[Jimidh]

As

Had to go to the chemist today to pick up a prescription for my son. I asked if they had any sanitizing gel as we don't have any at home.
The chemist told me that they are finding it difficult getting hold of any for themselves and then said that the local hospital is having problems with people stealing the sanitizer bottles that are left on desks or in the wall dispensers.

As an owner of a few pharmacies this is correct. We have been wiped out and can’t order anymore.

Just wait for drug shortages next. You will be paying over £1 for a pack of Paracetamol in the next few weeks as most wholesalers have ran out and the cost price has risen from around 20p per pack to 70-80p.

Lots of common generic medicines have already gone into short supply as the Indian Government has put an export ban on some products.

Happy Days!!

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

In many ways China "took one for the team" in imposing the restrictions they did. They could have adopted less restrictive practices like Western countries are doing and hurt their economy less. But they didn't and this caused a delay in the spread of the virus. This delay has been invaluable to Western countries.

While I agree with you, the implication of the alternative would also have been extremely serious nationally - if they hadn't hit it hard and fast, the issue would not have just concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, it would have led to the disease exploding in communities c20+ times in magnitude WITHIN China - witness Beijing, Shanghai etc. have all escaped largely unscathed - Wuhan is only their 9th most populous city. Once it has spread geographically, they could not have mobilised the healthcare personnel, in tens of thousands from other provinces, concentrating the national efforts on hitting the problem areas such as they did with Wuhan/Hubei, the consequence of which would likely have meant much greater fatalities everywhere than the c20+ factor might indicate.

It seems to me their playbook was well thought out, and worked quickly. But we don't seem to be following it.

It's a difficult balance to be struck. China decided to throw the kitchen sink at it and it worked in terms of restricting the virus. The cost will be somewhere between 6-8% of GDP this year. They of course have a political system that allows very fast implementation of draconian measures. They also have, to a large extent, a population that is accepting of the primacy of the power of the State

Western countries have taken the view that they can't afford a GDP hit like this.

Leaving people's lives aside just for the sake of discussion, I find it difficult to see why the economy will necessarily be better off, if the problem is allowed to brew and expand, making it harder and taking longer to deal with.

 

[kingrollo]

While I agree with you, the implication of the alternative would also have been extremely serious nationally - if they hadn't hit it hard and fast, the issue would not have just concentrated in Wuhan/Hubei, it would have led to the disease exploding in communities c20+ times in magnitude WITHIN China - witness Beijing, Shanghai etc. have all escaped largely unscathed - Wuhan is only their 9th most populous city. Once it has spread geographically, they could not have mobilised the healthcare personnel, in tens of thousands from other provinces, concentrating the national efforts on hitting the problem areas such as they did with Wuhan/Hubei, the consequence of which would likely have meant much greater fatalities everywhere than the c20+ factor might indicate.

It seems to me their playbook was well thought out, and worked quickly. But we don't seem to be following it.



Leaving people's lives aside just for the sake of discussion, I find it difficult to see why the economy will necessarily be better off, if the problem is allowed to brew and expand, making it harder and taking longer to deal with.

I think the interpretation might be for example an estimate that 20k* people are going to die. The choice is the time frame. Do we struggle to keep the weekly/month count down - but it goes on longer - or do we let all hell break loose for 3 months.
*Yes just a figure I pulled out of the sky.

 

[MarkF]

Yeah but Mark F hasn't seen anyone using the pods - so we might as well take them down.

Quite few were tested today, I watched on my break to see what happens.

You appear to watch virus death news like others wait for news on transfer deadline day.

 

[kingrollo]

Quite few were tested today, I watched on my break to see what happens.

You appear to watch virus death news like others wait for news on transfer deadline day.

Guilty as charged ! Slow work week !

 

[Smokin Joe]

The Chinese were forced to take drastic measures because they ignored the problem for quite a while and denied there even was one, going as far as arresting the doctor who first discovered it for "Causing alarm and panic". Hopefully, the early precautions taken here and in other countries will make it's impact on us much less severe.

 

[PeteXXX]

 

[slowmotion]

^^^^^ You forgot the impending mega-tsunami from the Canaries that will most certainly drown us all in our beds.
You'll need more lavatory paper.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami

 

[nickyboy]

Found this in the pub tonight. Probably more valuable than a bag of crack

 

[kingrollo]

View attachment 507344

Don't think anyone is suggesting it's going to kill us all.
See a few posts where a UK advisor talks of a 20% infection rate and just below 1% fatality rate. All estimates of course - and don't forget the 20% won't all be infected at the same time.

 

[Rusty Nails]

View attachment 507344

The post is simplistically amusing as a comment on the scares that regularly arise these days except for the fact that no-one said those things were going to kill us all.

Y2K was my favourite, although none of them come close to the Cuba crisis.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

View attachment 507351

Found this in the pub tonight. Probably more valuable than a bag of crack

I hope you’ve disinfected that bottle first.