Coronavirus outbreak

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tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Just seen a guy with a homemade mask. Thought it looked a bit odd then spotted why it was a catering type hair net.
Either the virus has wildly mutated or he's not read the memo..... bless :smile:
 

Buck

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Well it looks like the testing of health care workers is starting In our region.

We’ve been told it’s from this weekend and will initially focus on the ICU/ED teams and Paramedics before going out to General Practice.

Tests going to Milton Keynes for analysis.
 

pubrunner

Legendary Member
It’ll be interesting to see where we go from here, once this virus situation has been resolved. A big question, must surely be how the NHS is set-up so that it can deal with future pandemics. What should be our realistic expectations ?

For example, if a similar virus pandemic occurs again, we would we expect the NHS to cope with it; but would we expect for ‘routine’ operations to be carried out at the same time, or should they always ‘put on hold’ when such outbreaks occur ?

I think that the impact of the coronavirus has gone way beyond what most of us expected. In the first 70 or 80 posts on this thread, there are only a few that stand out, as voicing any concerns. That’s not a criticism of the rest, btw, but it illustrates our unpreparedness for what has subsequently occurred.

Given the level of PPE being deployed ( class 4 pathogen level) and the fact that the Chinese have already mapped the genome of the virus, and know exactly what they are up against, I’d say we should be concerned.

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

Hard to believe, but hardly anyone on this forum took this ^^^ comment seriously - at the time. It just goes to show, we've all been on a massive learning curve.

Hopefully, there will be a few good things that come from this; first, that the NHS will receive the funding and equipment it requires. Secondly, we'll be better prepared for a similar pandemic and finally, I hope that there'll be no talk in any quarter, of privatising the NHS.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
 

Archie_tect

De Skieven Architek... aka Penfold + Horace
Location
Northumberland
Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
French, Spanish and Italian deaths on the Covid-19 Dashboard site are now up to approx. 10% of the confirmed cases.
 

pubrunner

Legendary Member
Frightening predictions for the UK as heading for the worst figures in Europe, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Herd immunity held responsible for dither and delay over social distancing. Figures highly disputed by the Imperial College guys who eventually got the government to listen over social distancing. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

In Sweden, they don't seem to be bothered about social distancing at the moment.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

So why aren't they going to have the worst figures in Europe ?
 

pubrunner

Legendary Member
Keep up! Sweden have panicked and toughened up on social distancing. About 5 days ago.

Keep up!

The article I linked, is from yesterday :
.
"Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown. "

The fact is, they haven't 'panicked' and their guidance on social distancing isn't nearly as 'tough' as in the UK.

Here's an article from today :

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...urope-s-coronavirus-outlier-and-what-it-means
 
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deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
Keep up!

The article I linked, is from yesterday :
.
"Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown. "

The fact is, they haven't 'panicked' and their guidance on social distancing isn't nearly as 'tough' as in the UK.
Sweden committed itself to the herd immunity approach, despite epidemiologists dismay. They've started the journey back from the Swedish exception. As there are only about 10 million Swedes, that delay won't kill as many as it will in the UK.
 

pubrunner

Legendary Member
As there are only about 10 million Swedes, that delay won't kill as many as it will in the UK.

I'm sure that'll be the case, but it'll be interesting to see how it works out per capita.

That said, we don't know if other countries are recording deaths in the same way. I see that 'Nipper' Read has died - due to the coronavirus; he was 95 and had underlying health issues. I wonder, if the Germans are only reporting 'pure' Covid-19 deaths, rather than a very old guy who died with C19, but had health issues and was very old ?
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
I wonder, if the Germans are only reporting 'pure' Covid-19 deaths, rather than a very old guy who died with C19, but had health issues and was very old ?
The death toll combines those who died of covid-19 and those who died with it. Only after this is over will it be possible to try to differentiate between the two.
 
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