Coronavirus outbreak

[BoldonLad]

I could be pursuaded that what we are doing/following is the least worst option. But we've so little future information to go on, whilst being assailed with daily death figures but being given very little information on the lockdowns present and future societal cost.

I can't believe these figures, how can gloves cost 14p? A single use apron £2.50? I'd have guessed an apron cost less than 5p. I am getting through £50+ worth of gear a shift, the medical staff a huge amount more!

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I am surprised NHS is paying so little for those items. Procurement was not their strong point, when I worked, admittedly 15 years ago, but, no reason to suppose anything has changed.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

While it's a hot topic, there's an article in the Guardian today - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19. It doesn't give clear answers.

 

[Rocky]

They’re not that hot and sunny at the moment? People are catching it indoors not outside?

I didn’t see the post you referred to, just yours (due to long standing use of a certain forum function )

Ultimately, it may have an impact on the transmission of the virus but that will take three or so weeks to feed through into reduced mortality. Sadly the poor people who are currently dying were infected three or four weeks ago (there's a lead time of up to 2 weeks before symptoms show and then up to a week before pneumonia and breathing problems and then a further week after that). It was claimed in the DM article (I think) that there was a link between reducing deaths and the sunny weather. That simply can't be the case with this lead time.

 

[marinyork]

Italy's deaths go back up again today (in reality who knows, just all sorts of errors and variations). 18th straight day of new deaths 500 or more. 17 out of the last 18 days with deaths 600 or more.

 

[kingrollo]

While it's a hot topic, there's an article in the Guardian today - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19. It doesn't give clear answers.

In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)

Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But that's at best second class health care system there in US so it is not a surprise it is being overwhelmed

Right.

So it's both definitely no worse than flu, and simultaneously so much worse that it overwhelms the US healthcare system which flu doesn't.

Got it.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)

Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??

Perhaps. There are unknowns with both the virus and the seasonal immunity of humans. Which is why it said that the article doesn't give clear answers. It is however clear that the virus thrives in a wide climatic range.

Ben Neuman: ''“This virus started in near-freezing conditions in China, and is rapidly growing both in Iceland and on the equator in Brazil and Ecuador. ''

''“I am sure seasonal variations in the virus’s behaviour will play a role in its spread,” said virologist Michael Skinner at Imperial College London. “But compared with the effect we are having with social distancing, it will be a very minor influence. It may produce some marginal effects but these will not be a substitute for self-isolation.” ''

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Meanwhile in Glasgow:
the Green, one of the main parks, was quite busy earlier on.
Families, cyclists, joggers - a police van on patrol too!
There's no way some of those people, walking in close proximity, are from the same household.
Two elderly ladies, one with token dog, chatting merrily next to each other.
In my block of flats, visiting has been happening.
Small shops, where social distancing is impossible to adhere to, are trading.
People wearing gloves and masks, then touching stuff, then touching their face.
Declared deaths from corona virus in Scotland to date: 222.

 

[Johnno260]

Personally, I think that's not an essential journey because motorists should have spare bulbs in the boot toolkit and you can buy replacements with the weekly food shop or the next time you refuel, but the law arguably says it is, so I just have to accept it.

true and my bulb kit had a main bulb, and a side light bulb, both sides had blown, and I needed to replace a main as well, I didn’t have enough, and the same 501 5W5 is used on my number plate and those had blown as well.

So I needed bulbs and fuses.

No one was at Halfords the items were put on a bench outside the store with the contactless card reader, by far the best social distancing I have seen at a store.

So not essential? I will tell my wife to call the hospital and say she doesn’t have transport, to make her shift as I suppose lights aren’t essential either.

My cars MOT has expired and my tax so with me working from home it’s sorn,I know the garages are open but it’s a morale choice over a connivence one.

But ho hum I’m sure I am the issue at the moment and not the dickheads breaking government guide lines by sun bathing and racing their motorbike around.

And people in my village are rather cordial, all the old people are cared for etc everyone waves and is happy as well, sorry if I take offence to muppets making morally bad choices, but like I said sun bathing is essential.

 

[Johnno260]

In the colder damper weather - you maybe more likely to sneeze or have a runny nose (touch you're face)

Meaning maybe the virus isn't passed on quite so much ...recall those weeks where it just rained ??

And people cram into cinemas and such places more in the cold and wet months.

so coughs sneezes etc pass stuff easier.

 

[mjr]

But ho hum I’m sure I am the issue at the moment and not the dickheads breaking government guide lines by sun bathing and racing their motorbike around.

No, those are definitely daffodils, but remember that the rants I objected to were directed at people daring to have their grass cut and windows cleaned (or doing that for others), which I hope you'd agree is no more dodgy than making a special trip to buy routine car consumables (assuming they're not no-distance cash-in-hand daffodils).

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

From the same article it appears that there are other countries that are having problems sourcing kits that meet the required standard or are several months away from developing one. Not just the UK suffering. Sounds like the issue is developing something that works reliably in the home environment if I am reading the article correctly.

'Interestingly we are not the only ones who having difficulty identifying commercial tests that work in a home test kit format. The Spanish apparently returned test kits that were not working, and the Germans who are developing their own sensitive kits believe they are three months away from getting these available and validated. Not test has been acclaimed by health authorities as having the necessary characteristics for screening people accurately for protective immunity.'

That's the basis of the Government's strategy - the "game changer" is to test everybody so people know whether they are still vulnerable to catching it - the Government did provisionally order 17.5 millions tests. Obviously if what works requires special equipment operated by specialists the strategy is a dead duck.

The fact of the matter, is actually no antibody test has been approved by PHE for use even by hospital doctors, let alone Joe Public. Additionally, major concerns are raised by medical practitioners about people using kits at home.

There is of course the little matter that nobody knows how long one would be immune for after catching it.

It's a very disappointing article from a leading person who has knowledge and doesn't want to share it.

It's been alleged the bad batches in Spain were only 30% accurate - although curiously enough very little comment has been made about the non-dodgy ones. I think this was said as much as a week ago.

It's been alleged the kits UK have played around with are 50% accurate. It isn't specified what 50% means and whether it actually performs satisfactorily in some subgroups.

Are you sure you aren't shooting the messenger? He has stated none of them work well enough for the purpose - there are no non-dodgy ones. They are working with 9 companies.

Frankly this is just another example of the unending list of over promises and under deliveries by the government. What exactly did you expect from the people who told you there are unicorns in sunny uplands?

 

[Johnno260]

No, those are definitely daffodils, but remember that the rants I objected to were directed at people daring to have their grass cut and windows cleaned (or doing that for others), which I hope you'd agree is no more dodgy than making a special trip to buy routine car consumables (assuming they're not no-distance cash-in-hand daffodils).

Cash in hand is riskier than contactless for sure, but the risk is probably generally the same.

But like I said, no car no nurse at work, it’s why I also purchased 4 bulb kits and a pack of fuses to cover such issues in the future, and all the boxes got rubbed down with an alcohol based cleaner before they entered the car but yup it was totally not essential to have working lights.

So a trip to keep a car on the road and keep a nurse in work vs someone having their windows cleaned is that even a comparison?

 

[winjim]

The fact of the matter, is actually no antibody test has been approved by PHE for use even by hospital doctors, let alone Joe Public.

That's biomedical and clinical scientists you're thinking of.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Intensive care for Johnson.