Coronavirus outbreak

[stowie]

2) The fact that death rates as only as low as they are because of the measures taken is ignored.

This is what I call "The Millenium Bug Fallacy".

People use the millenium bug as an example of hype, when it is actually an example of measures being taken. Where the millenium bug was missed, some horrible consequences happened such as expectant mothers being given false positive results for Downs Syndrome.

No-one really knows the outcome of not doing something, unless there is a control country which elects this course of action, but even then it is quite probably not a fair comparison due to different population densities, cultures and so on. The best we have are the models which can be modified to take into account different measures etc.

I think it is important to consider the effect of the measures on the economy since this will also have a big effect on peoples' wellbeing, but we cannot underestimate the impact of the collapse of the NHS under the weight of COVID victims either - this would be catastrophic for the nation's wellbeing.

 

[tom73]

New wave of panic buying on way
Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open

 

[PK99]

View attachment 511409

Richmond park this morning

 

[Mugshot]

You know what I think.

Trump's approval ratings are up, so, you know...

 

[Rezillo]

This article from the Spector is very interesting.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY

There's a lot wrong with that article, mainly points that can rather better be used to argue against the author's stance than for him. However, rather than post an essay, here's one issue.

"The UK’s lockdown has been informed by modelling of what might happen. More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors?"

If I were to admit publically that I knew nothing about key aspects of the models being used to determine the policy I was criticising, I'd pipe down.

 

[stowie]

View attachment 511409

Richmond park this morning

Will that policeman give himself a fine for not keeping the 2m distance?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

This article from the Spector is very interesting.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...42VCPu6IhdJ8kRnVHAQhnpc3l8SyL-8XU8oE9XQA4S9vY

It's not clear that he isn't comparing annual mortality rates with Covid-19 rates, which don't have a year's data. Covid-19 rates will appear far lower because it hasn't been around long enough to figure in the annual statistics. Of course, he might have compensated for this, but I'd have liked to have known how this was done.

 

[LCpl Boiled Egg]

New wave of panic buying on way
Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open

shoot just got real, yo.

Edit: Plain or milk chocolate?

 

[DCLane]

Finally got round to watching the BBC4 programme Contagion, linked further upthread: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

 

[tom73]

shoot just got real, yo.

Edit: Plain or milk chocolate?

milk

 

[mjr]

News from Belgium: deaths increase again, some good news stories about the recovered 1500ish, a look at South Korea where they're keeping the outbreak contained by doing 60'000 tests/day, a look at the medical facilities being built in Brussels (by Médicins Sans Frontières) and New York (by Samaritan's Purse) in conference centres (pictured NY one but both looked similar) and in NY's Central Park, Italy now using churches and freezer lorries as overflow morgues because the crematoria cannot keep up and mixed news for Belgian foresters: they can now fell again after an swine fever outbreak was controlled but few wood-using businesses are still trading to buy the wood.

 

[mjr]

News from France: 292 deaths in a day, total now 2606; 40k confirmed cases; Spain reports 812 deaths in a day, total now 7340.

 

[Rezillo]

New wave of panic buying on way
Tunnock’s has ceased production in response to the Covid-19 , the company has announced.
I've got a packet of wafers .... bidding is now open

Thanks for the heads-up. I'm currently holding back an angry mob of villagers armed with pitchforks and flaming torches.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

My attempt at an honest cost/benefit of current restrictions, after reading those posted above from Mail and Spectator.

1. What’s the consequence of not acting on COVID: 500,000 deaths by COVID within a few weeks, and probably many more through overwhelm of the healthcare system.
2. What’s the consequence of distancing at current levels for a few weeks for COVID: 10% GDP loss and massive inconvenience
3. What’s the consequence of distancing at current levels for many months for COVID: I’d guess societal collapse would follow such an attempted action as our infrastructure slowly failed, and food production was impacted.
4. How long do we need to maintain distancing at current levels to suppress the virus: nobody knows.
5. What will happen when distancing is relaxed: There will be recurrence of the pestilence, nobody knows how virulently, but potentially close to current rates of increase as we are probably nowhere near herd immunity levels (and nobody knows how long immunity lasts)
6. What are alternatives to distancing: Test and trace with surveillance (see Korea, China outside Hubei, Singapore), vaccine, antiviral drugs. Nobody knows when, or even if a vaccine will be possible. Antiviral drugs are generally of limited benefit to acute infections.

All numbers and unreferenced assertions plucked from the air by Roubaix Research and have considerable uncertainty.

Conclusion: it’s worth it, for now. Need to work hard on an effective strategy to relax restrictions once the peak has passed. At least one of liberties, economy or mortality will suffer whatever we decide to do, and probably all three.

How's that?

 

[PK99]

, a look at South Korea where they're keeping the outbreak contained by doing 60'000 tests/day,

It is not the testing that is keeping the outbreak contained is the the use of centralised state resources to track and trace the movements of all testing positive and all their contacts via Mobile phone tracking linked to state ID cards.