Coronavirus outbreak

[Rocky]

Do you think anyone has meaningful control of the infection rate? I bet there are all sorts of unforeseen inputs, hysteresis, and latency issues that make it near impossible. Even if there is a joystick, who would you trust to be in the pilot’s seat?

I think that's the difficulty - Government see this like a machine. Pull a few levers, turn a few dials and you can control it. The public's health is much more of a complex system which is constantly changing. The only thing the health authorities can do is to respond - often with hidden unintended consequences. For example shut schools to reduce the infection among children but this has the effect of raising it among grandparents (who now look after the kids).

 

[marinyork]

It's been asked before but does anyone believe the figures from china?
they are saying zero apart from in folk arrived from abroad?
sounds very hard to believe to me.

Well if loads of people start dying in a month they/we'll find out. Or perhaps we don't.

In general I believe the figures are lowish, just because of the extremely burdensome monitoring of citizens for their temperatures and everything else. Same thing goes on here to a lesser extent- Boris could have closed pubs because in London phone data was being looked at and too many packed pubs and people travelling about.

Again that sort of thing comes down to testing and if/when these mobile antibody tests come out we'll really find out.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Sky reporting it's been downgraded again. I just hope that's right for the moment.

Just heard through the nhs grapevine, that at least 5 doctors are on ventilators in London.

 

[Rezillo]

Well, two rather different takes on the same thing:

https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/southwold-and-aldeburgh-second-homeowners-coronavirus-1-6570078

Ian Bradbury, town mayor of Southwold, expressed his concern that the influx was also impact[ing] on the supply of food and other commodities.

He said: “The second homeowners are already here and there will be more tomorrow. They should think about the impact they will leave on our town. The shelves in shops have been devastated in the last 24 hours.”

He added: “This virus is going to get all of us and the death toll modelling in Suffolk is alarming. Southwold is no safer place than anywhere else.”


or there's this:

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/southwold-second-homes-coronavirus-isolation-1-6570538

"Councillor David Beavan, who represents Southwold on East Suffolk Council, said visitors to the town were “always welcome." He said: “They are clearing out the shops, but that is a pretty good thing for our businesses.

“Some people are panic buying and that isn’t helping, and we are trying to get things rationed by asking local shops to keep back some essentials like toilet rolls so they don’t all disappear, but people are quite entitled to buy things".

 

[Blue Hills]

Another london shoppimg scout - been back a week and no real shopping achieved as yet.

Lidl - didn't seem too packed seemed to be OK on fruit and veg, picked some brocolli, re point above, plenty of el cheapo special offer wine (£2.99) so picked a bottle, got some oranges, no pasta or rice, then saw the great big queue snaking round the perimeter of the shop for the tills - didn't want to stand close to folk for so long (apart from fag for such meagre pick-ups) so put the stuff back and left. This Lidl a bit odd as no trolleys at all - just those wheeled basket things - so think this one will suppress panic buying and be better soon. Hours changed to clos at 8, not 10.

Peddalled off to Aldi up the road - way way less of a queue outside (they are limiting entry) than yesterday. Spoke to a nice chap outside who said he had just had to wait the time it took to smoke a fag. I was there sometime after nine - he said supplies OK, but no pasta by then. He said they had cut folk to ONE item of any type so that should cut the nutjobs pretty quickly I reckon. (they let him have TWO cans of dog food though)
I told him that the next Aldi down the road had had shoppers fighting (so I was told) the day before - he said he tried to stay away from such incidents as he was a part time cage fighter ! - looking at him, nice as he was, i could well believe it.

Off to to previous day's fighting - again less of a queue outside though I could see long queues inside - so left.
In short, I think things are getting better - can wait until next week.
And it was a bike ride

 

[Rocky]

Just heard through the nhs grapevine, that at least 5 doctors are on ventilators in London.

It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:

I've seen students walking in the streets in Oxford with better gear.

Edit: Issued to a front line nurse in general practice - just to clarify

 

[newfhouse]

I'm not an expert and I readily defer to those with real expertise on this board, but I'm not a particularly stupid man and I'd hope I could work things out.

I agree, to the extent that broadly there’s a fast and a slow pedal. I worry that nobody has any experience of operating the machine, the brakes are not very effective, and many of the passengers are screaming to go faster.

But we are all on board, so buckle up.

 

[Blue Hills]

Well if loads of people start dying in a month they/we'll find out. Or perhaps we don't.

I wasn't really asking about a month hence but now.

Must say I don't trust the chinese government. Never have.

and it just seems so unlikely in such a massive place with such a massive population.

I doubt they do real press conferences.

 

[Blue Hills]

It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:

View attachment 509382
I've seen students walking in the streets in Oxford with better gear.

Edit: Issued to a front line nurse in general practice - just to clarify

cripes - that's party gear.

 

[RoadRider400]

It doesn't surprise me. There's a huge debate going on about the suitability of the PPE (personal protective equipment) that GP practices are being given. This is what has been issued to a frontline nurse:

View attachment 509382
I've seen students walking in the streets in Oxford with better gear.

Edit: Issued to a front line nurse in general practice - just to clarify

Is that the new equipment they were talking about recently? its bloody disgraceful.
The government have spend a shed load of money tonight. They should extend that to buying every P3 respirator in the country.

 

[Fab Foodie]

Spent many a happy night in the Queens in my youth (I used to own a house in Stricklandgate). One day, when all this comes to an end, I'll tell the story of how I was banned for life from the New Inn

Start writing now if I were you...

 

[Rocky]

Is that the new equipment they were talking about recently? its bloody disgraceful.
The government have spend a shet load of money tonight. They should extend that to buying every P3 respirator in the country.

Hospitals get better PPE but primary care and general practice are being overwhelmed. I've heard of one practice in London where, at the current rate, all their 30 staff will be self-isolating by the start of next week. This stuff is really serious.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Also less fighting in the streets and drunk driving

I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.

 

[MarkF]

There are nearly 80,000 A&E admissions for "unintentional injuries" relating to alcohol (I presume this means falling over etc) every year.

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-inf...statistical/statistics-on-alcohol/2019/part-1

I guess we will see a big reduction of these on the front line as "home drinking" feels much less susceptible than pub drinking which should take some pressure off A&E staff too?

Yes, not seen any drunks for a week, normally they are in every night, often the same people day after day. Also, until last week ambulances would pull up, bring in patient, deal with procedures then go off on another job. On Monday night I counted 9 ambulances parked up outside, no jobs!

My thoughts are not with the contracted staff but with the "flexible" workforce, the agency and bank (zero hour) staff which the hospital relies on, right now, it doesn't need them.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I'd predict a rise in domestic violence, though.

Quite probably. Apparently I'm driving the wife nuts because I won't sit still and keep finding things to do.