Coronavirus outbreak

[Wobblers]

@McWobble I think the other consideration is whether other steps that will be taken will reduce the R0 sufficiently to make a dent in the numbers. Closing bars and restaurants for example, more social distancing.

What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0

Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?

Good questions. I suspect that the intention is merely to reduce the outbreak to manageable proportions. The trouble is, this isn't a solution in the long run, as most of the population will remain vulnerable to this disease.

What is worrying me is not so much what's in the news but what isn't. We have heard almost nothing from Latin America, Africa, South and SE Asia. These are all areas with crowded slums - the perfect place for a major outbreak - and little to no health surveillance. South Africa has seen increasing cases and now is taking firm steps to get on top of things. This is not mirrored in rest of the continent.

My fear is that Covid-19 could easily take hold in some shanty town or favela and spread far and wide before anyone even realises. Given that coronavirus can spread without visible symptoms, it's likely that the infection would spread rapidly throughout the unfortunate host country, which would have little chance of coping, and go further, and silently, to reinfect other countries which through great efforts in containment and quarantine had dealt with their own outbreaks. I think it highly likely that many countries will have many outbreaks, not just one.

The best solution is a vaccine. An effective treatment regime might be another counter - the youtube video @marinyork linked to outlines some interesting potential treatments. An effective and simple treatment which keeps people out of ICU as well (so preventing the health services from becoming overwhelmed) as the reducing case mortality rate makes the herd immunity strategy workable. Though when I hear phrases such as "recombinant human ACE-2 receptors" i suspect that they won't be cheap...

 

[Buck]

An interesting analysis piece in The Telegraph looking at the data and predictions is here:-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-data-behind-government-coronavirus-lockdown/

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

You can read the full Imperial report that killed the CMO/CSA's ridiculous "mitigation" plan here.

 

[Pale Rider]

China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.

I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.

China is furthest along the virus outbreak curve.

The virus may also take its course whatever measures are adopted to combat it.

That contention will be reinforced if the likes of Italy and Iran follow a similar pattern.

 

[Levo-Lon]

China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.

I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.

China is furthest along the virus outbreak curve.

The virus may also take its course whatever measures are adopted to combat it.

That contention will be reinforced if the likes of Italy and Iran follow a similar pattern.

Encouraging, my view is a government wouldn't be so keen to offer billions unless it thought it was actually going t wiggle out of it, but looking like it will do everything looks good and relieves immediate anxiety and worry.. sort of

If by April 15 we are seeing a downward curve? Then maybe it will be over by mid May..
We're making sure all public gatherings are off the table ,but its fine to go to busy supermarkets
Then we have medicle expers talking about 18mth for vaccine control?

Who knows

 

[Blue Hills]

Embarrassed to admit, i don’t cook. Don’t even have a freezer just now, just a fridge with small freezer compartment so I rely on the shops having fresh stuff as I just walk round a couple of times per week to get what I need.

you don't cook?
How's that work?
good time to learn.

in truth nothng to learn - very hard to totally ruin anything or make it inedible - i see it as experimenting)

 

[Blue Hills]

China has reported only a handful of new cases for the second day running.

I may be interpreting those figures incorrectly, but I wonder - if they continue - if the virus is going to fizzle out a lot faster than anyone is anticipating.

China is furthest along the virus outbreak curve.

The virus may also take its course whatever measures are adopted to combat it.

That contention will be reinforced if the likes of Italy and Iran follow a similar pattern.

Do you think we can trust china though?
I wouldn't trust the chinese state an inch.
Appalling restriction of debate internally.
Mass control of the raw material of debate through tech.
Complete bullshit on what they have for decades termed "re-education".
They make the most appalling detention camps sound like a cross between a university and my fond childhood memories of "silver sands" caravan park.

China it seems to me exists in a state of alternative truth.

I'd rather watch Italy and other european countries for clues on the future path.

 

[Pale Rider]

Do you think we can trust china though?
I wouldn't trust the chinese state an inch.
Appalling restriction of debate internally.
Mass control of the raw material of debate through tech.
Complete bullshit on what they have for decades termed "re-education".
They make the most appalling detention camps sound like a cross between a university and my fond childhood memories of "silver sands" caravan park.

China it seems to me exists in a state of alternative truth.

I'd rather watch Italy and other european countries for clues on the future path.

I agree with your remarks about China.

The bamboo curtain is still very much in existence when it comes to knowing what goes on internally, and what it's shielding is very likely not edifying.

But one can only make a judgment on what is known, even though that judgment must be a qualified one.

I agree with Levo that what's apparently happening in China is encouraging.

I also agree when he says our government will be hoping the virus will ease quickly once past its peak, thereby saving them from having to spend quite so many of the billions they announced yesterday.

 

[PaulSB]

It wasn't coronavirus. The first UK case was detected in Chinese nationals at the end of January, the first 'internal' transmission at the end of February. If thousands of people had had it over Christmas they would have also been detected and current case numbers would have been much higher.

I'm not in a position to discuss this with you from a medical view. I don't know if you're qualified in someway or not.

I feel the crucial word in your response is "detected." From what I've read the understanding of where this virus came from is still limited. It was discovered in November and could well have travelled for sometime before the Wuhan situation arose.

The supporting argument I put forward is my wife is a highly experienced retired medical professional. I have been with her for 42 years, for her to state she had Coronavirus in late December without truly believing and having considered her symptoms is utterly and totally out of character. She was more unwell than I have seen in those 42 years.

I know of other people, one equally qualified, who feel the same way.

 

[PaulSB]

I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.

I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.

I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

i would also say and dont hate me for this but toilet rolls arent the only way to clean ones under carriage, think terry nappies ....just saying

Well, in days of old, when knights were bold and paper wasn't invented...

 

[Venod]

I haven't checked these facts but if true its good news, its from my facebook feed.

📣📣 HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS!? 📣📣
📌 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
📌 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
📌 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
📌 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
📌 Apple reopens all 42 china stores.
📌 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
📌 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
📌 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
📌 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
📌 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
📌 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
📌 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
📌 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
📌 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
📌 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
Above credit to: Michael Mathis 🙏
So it's not ALL bad news friends. Let's care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable while continuing to make the best of our days. This too shall pass! I challenge you to spread the good news!
**If you google the above statements, they prove to be true**

 

[Blue Hills]

I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.

I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.

I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?

as i understand it we are in a transition period so all still applies.
EHIC card still valid etc.

 

[Pale Rider]

I know posters in here are keeping up to date with the news far more than me.

I'm not looking to begin a political debate, I simply want an answer which I can't find.

I presume following Brexit the UK is excluded from all EU actions and decisions? As a simple example EU borders are or will be closed to UK citizens just as, for example, an American or Chinese citizen?

This BBC story says UK citizens will be unaffected, possibly because we haven't fully left yet.

There's also the advice of our Foreign Office to consider.

It trumps any EU decision inasmuch as it says we should avoid all overseas travel unless essential.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51927790

 

[Blue Hills]

I'm not in a position to discuss this with you from a medical view. I don't know if you're qualified in someway or not.

I feel the crucial word in your response is "detected." From what I've read the understanding of where this virus came from is still limited. It was discovered in November and could well have travelled for sometime before the Wuhan situation arose.

The supporting argument I put forward is my wife is a highly experienced retired medical professional. I have been with her for 42 years, for her to state she had Coronavirus in late December without truly believing and having considered her symptoms is utterly and totally out of character. She was more unwell than I have seen in those 42 years.

I know of other people, one equally qualified, who feel the same way.

to clarify, what I had was clearly no way as severe as what your wife had. And may very well not have been the virus anyway.
But I agree entirely with your logic.
Since we didn't know until very recently that this thing even existed, and the symptoms for some time would have been interpreted as being something else, it stands to reason that the first cases would be before what is currently appreciated.
Then add in that China covers stuff up and did initially.
and global air travel.
london is full of chinese students and tourists - lots arriving every day in normal times.
Whether it actually originated in china at all.
I see it as akin to serial killing sprees - takes time to see that cases are linked - you need to track back.

I am pretty sure that once we have got through this the first case will be before, very posibly well before, what is now currently logged.