Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
Errrm because you could have been referring to a low powered jet wash for bikes. You are clearly too young to know what the “power” sockets in cars were originally designed for.
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Errrm because you could have been referring to a low powered jet wash for bikes. You are clearly too young to know what the “power” sockets in cars were originally designed for.
Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
Meanwhile bag some bargain holidays in Spain.
vickster
Legendary Member
Except you won't get insurance as fco advising against non essential travel outside U.K. For 30 days
Joey Shabadoo
My pronouns are "He", "Him" and "buggerlugs"
Och, be daring, take a chance. What could possibly go wrong?
pawl
Legendary Member
- Location
- Desford Leicestershire
Ah with you.Never use a power washer on my bikes.Thank you from a 79 year old for the compliment.Quite pleased with that
I would be very embarrassed standing on the drive spraying my rear end.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
A family friend is stuck on Madeira and can't get a flight home. Still, a cheap deal's always a bargain....
The hospital was super quiet today 2-10pm, A&E is getting even quieter, when I left nobody was in the waiting room, normally 50+ and half the cubicles were empty.
I don't know why our how a virus suspected patient is assessed nor how a decision is made to keep them in. But there are quite a few now, all elderly, they've filled one ward and another has been opened, a further defunct ward is being re-commissioned.
I don't know why our how a virus suspected patient is assessed nor how a decision is made to keep them in. But there are quite a few now, all elderly, they've filled one ward and another has been opened, a further defunct ward is being re-commissioned.
Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
Live a little...
English heritage closing all staffed sites from end of tomorrow till 1st May. All free to visit sites still open. They say most are large enough to allow social distancing.
My understanding is National Trust are closing all sites , shops and cafes by Friday. But looking at if possible opening up gardens and parkland for free.
My understanding is National Trust are closing all sites , shops and cafes by Friday. But looking at if possible opening up gardens and parkland for free.
Fab Foodie
hanging-on in quiet desperation ...
- Location
- Kirton, Devon.
Agreed.
Have now moved to a bog-roll free system for home.
Fab Foodie
hanging-on in quiet desperation ...
- Location
- Kirton, Devon.
Stephenite
Membå
- Location
- OslO
Are you out on the road? With that thing? ....Any excuse! You're an inate pepper
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
You've hit the nail right on the head. The implicit assumption in my "better" case scenario is that the infection rate is slow enough that the NHS can cope.
At the current growth rate of infections, there is little prospect of the NHS coping. We've got to get that down -way down - in order to stand a chance. Again, we can put numbers to this. Let's assume the optimum scenario where 90% of those infected have such mild illnesses they don't even realise themselves. Of the remainder, 5% will need ventilator support (Chinese data, this fraction approaches 10% in Italy but we'll look at he best case). The NHS has 7000 respirators. Assuming that 5000 of those ventilators are available and a patient needs on average 2 weeks on one (data from China was that of htose who died, many were on ventilator support for 10-14 days). That means the NHS would have a capacity to cope with 2500 new severe cases per week. That in turn means 50,000 new cases per week. Herd immunity requires 4 million overt infections. At this rate, it'll take 18 months to reach the level of resistance required for herd immunity without the NHS collapsing under the strain. By my quick back-of -the-envelope calculations, we'd need about 50,000 ventilator places to cope, given the rapid increase in cases. That's just not feasible. I don't think the herd immunity idea will work.
I feel that the only chance is to require that pubs, clubs, cinemas and other public gatherings to be halted immediately. It looks like the government's also come to that conclusion, with Johnson's advice that we should now all avoid bars, cinemas and theaters etc. It's a start, but doesn't go far enough. Expect more stringent actions to follow in short order! I suspect that we'll see most pubs and clubs being closed by Monday and further restrictions before the end of next week. The one bright spot is that people are beginning to vote with their feet, and avoiding those places unbidden. That is probably the most helpful action any of us can do at present - drastically cut down all social interactions.
@DCLane I take your point that mortality will be lower with at risk groups self isolating. That's true, but few will be able to completely shut themselves off from society for 3 months or more, so the benefit will likely be less than what we hope.
This BBC article goes into this in more detail - the numbers are different (not surprising given my naively simplistic models) but the message is similar.
