Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

Cyclist in Spain stopped by the police -

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Ah now it makes sense - we might need police patrolling the streets .....maybe even paying them overtime..........Herd Immunity it is then ;;;

 

[randynewmanscat]

This crisis is likely to affect jobs of many of my family. Nephew is a chef at a top restaurant, SIL is a swimming Teacher, other SIL/BIL have own electrical shop, other nephew works for Old Trafford Cricket.

My sis has friends that are both pilots. One was with flybe. They have a huge mortgage and recon can only afford another month.

There has to be some slack given or the banks won't even get 15p in the £ when people run out of road and cannot pay loans or mortgage. The government may have to lean on them and they also should be considering emergency tax codes and holidays on business rates. The UK is a stinking rich nation and the governments first job is to protect people, including protection from losing everything through no fault of their own. If this goes on for a while it is the poorest who will suffer the most, as usual. In a speech a few days ago the phrase was "billions if necessary".

 

[kingrollo]

Surely if we spending billions on helping the over 70s - it seems reasonable to raise the state pension age and trim a few benefits.

Not now but it will come ...

 

[fossyant]

35 dead in UK

 

[geocycle]

Just bought a turbo trainer. Desperate times...

 

[kingrollo]

Just bought a turbo trainer. Desperate times...

Did it come with any free loo rolls ?

 

[Milzy]

Cyclist in Spain stopped by the police -

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I'm going to wear black and no hi-viz so the poilce can't see me.

 

[tom73]

Not said before but I have a sister not seen her for years. She kept falling out with my mum. Normal family crap not of our making anyway long story short. She got in touch many months ago on FB via Mrs 73. After thinking about I replied around Christmas. I've known for years she ended up in Spain.

So thought I better see how it's going. She a good few years older than me and her partner is quite a bit older. For the moment she is well and holding out. She say's it's bad totally lock down with no time to prepare. I'm not overly worried she knows how to cope with stuff and how to manage. One thing we both get from Mum. But still it's a worrying time with more to come.
She went on to say last night people came out onto balconies and clapped all the nurses. As she say you can't imagine that happening here.

 

[randynewmanscat]

A friend in England joked that I should be able to take my pick of used stainless steel catering benches and steam convection ovens later in the year. He knows I have been after such for my own kitchen, I'm not a caterer, I just like industrial catering equipment.
He is a regular visitor to my place and is very aware of how many of the countryside cafes, auberge and bars are hanging on by a thread from one year to the next. Not a facet of society is untouched by the oncoming isolation and its uncertain duration, I feel sad for the communities who rely on a local watering hole/gossip mill/place to drop things off for others to pick up/keep out of the wife's way for a few hours.
Anyone who has toured the quieter parts of France can recall a three course lunch stop with as much half right wine as you want for €13, if this event lasts into the summer it will be a hammer blow to those places.

 

[Wobblers]

Folks I have read numerous articles on the subject, for no better reason than that I could. I just want to let you know that this one is exceptional, by far the best by a country mile.

It seems the traffic for the article is so heavy, that the direct link above can take a while for the whole document (especially all the graphics) to load, so I am including a separate link to my own pdf file (c 22MB) below in case you have difficulties with that:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/407x4eqq8zidtre/Coronavirus.pdf

If you have never come across it, I strongly recommend you take the trouble to read it. It explains pretty much everything that is important and relevant regarding the subject, with clear justification, and written in an easy to understand and concise way. It has been well received widely, and consequently has been translated by readers into numerous languages, as can be found within the first link above.

It happens to expose why our government's strategy is nothing less than disastrous, and why China, Korea, Italy did what they did, and why France and Spain decided to do so too yesterday.

Britain and our cousins across the pond are the odd ones out - we will pay very very dearly for it.

I know you can and will decide whether the article makes sense - I want you to read it so that you can protect yourself and your family with the confidence that you are doing the right things, in spite of our so called government, and perhaps it can help you convince others to do what is best for them too.

Take care!

A shout out to @Mugshot who posted it earlier. But still very much worth the second mention!

It is by far the best analysis I've seen. Everyone here ought to take the ten minutes to read it. Ignorance, @Pale Rider is NOT a virtue. You could have at least troubled yourself to read the first paragraph which provides a summary.

The salient facts are that coronavirus is here, and the number of infections are doubling every 2 days. As of today, about 1 in 2000 people are infected in the UK. By early next week, this will be 1 in 100. In countries where the health system has been able to cope with the infection (e.g. HK) the mortality has been less than 1%. Where the number of cases has been overwhelmed, the mortality has been around 4% (Italy has an even worse mortality rate). The only effective measure found to reduce the infection rate is social distancing.

My thoughts, for what little they're worth, is that everyone who is in an at risk category needs to plan on self-isolation and minimise all contacts for at least the next 4-6 weeks, and act on it as soon as possible, certainly before next weekend.

To echo @RecordAceFromNew, take care and good luck!

 

[Milzy]

No problem!



I think SARS is slightly different. From what I read, although the mortality rate was much worse, the virus was only contagious once symptons were showing, and the symptons were generally so bad that the patient would be in hospital by that time. COVID-19 is more effective as a virus since it appears more transmissable (is that a word?) than SARS and the symptons can be light enough for people to continue with their activities thinking they have only a heavy cold. Ebola is way on the other end of the scale - not transmissable without physical contact and so deadly that it is actually counterproductive for the virus - patients just are critically ill and die too quickly for them to spread the virus.

But it is a series of unknowns.



Again, a real unknown. It is also won't help too much to be economically sound if the rest of the world is going through a deep recession. We won't be immune from the events in other countries - especially Europe. My comment was more a reflection on tweets I have seen berating the government for considering the economic implications. Well, of course they are - and it only moral to do so as deep recessions hurt people - generally those who can least afford it.



Qioanjiang has been in lockdown since mid Jan, only just being released now. And the measures were tough. It is also not certain what will happen when these prvinces return back to normal - but China will no doubt lock them down again if COVID-19 cases increase. I don't wish to labour the point on "cultural differences" but it has to be considered - Chinese people are far more used to state intervention whilst we are not. My cousin lives in China and knows Chinese students in the UK are returning home because they are unhappy that our government isn't locking down everywhere. They appear to have an expectation of heavy state intervention which we simply aren't used to.

Us Brits do like to imagine we have a stoic attitude in the face of adversity with "The Blitz" being cited. And to some extent that might be true, but it is a cliche which hasn't needed to be tested for decades. The UK doesn't have major natural crises like other countries. On the other end of the cliche spectrum people were phoning 999 when KFC ran out of chicken, and are stockpiling bog roll now for reasons that seem rather elusive.

I think the government is hoping that a Hong Kong approach will work in the UK because I think we should have concerns over lockdown strategies.



The government's communications suck. Today it appears that they are using the old technique of off the record briefings which are deeply inappropriate for this time. Matt Hancock apparently was talking about engineering companies such as Rolls Royce repurposing for medical equipment. This is laughable.

But when the government medical experts talk, I think their strategy makes logical sense. It may turn out to be the wrong approach, who knows at the moment? But I understand the logic to it. My understanding is that they aim to take measures to try to slow the spread with plans in place to lockdown quickly when the spread starts to accelerate. The leaking around the elderly and vulnerable being encouraged to isolate seems to make sense to me as well - try to keep those worst affected away from the virus whilst hoping that those healthy will help contain the spread with developed immunity.

It is a big risk. We are still not 100% sure that those who have had the virus actually exhibit effective immunity. But everything is a risk. Lock down entire regions and the risk is that the virus starts spreading quickly again as soon as the lockdown is lifted.

In all cases, I think this virus will be with us for at least another 12 months.

I completely agree maybe even longer than 12 months so live, love, laugh.

 

[Pale Rider]

Ignorance, @Pale Rider is NOT a virtue. You could have at least troubled yourself to read the first paragraph which provides a summary.

I did read the first few paragraphs of the article, and I'm certainly not seeking to portray my unwillingness to read all of it as a virtue.

The suggestion that anyone who has not read that particular article is ignorant is more nonsense.

As I said, giving members on here the opportunity to read it - if they wish to - has been a positive addition to thread.

 

[derrick]

Me too, just getting my stuff together

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Now i understand.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

But when the government medical experts talk, I think their strategy makes logical sense. It may turn out to be the wrong approach, who knows at the moment? But I understand the logic to it. My understanding is that they aim to take measures to try to slow the spread with plans in place to lockdown quickly when the spread starts to accelerate. The leaking around the elderly and vulnerable being encouraged to isolate seems to make sense to me as well - try to keep those worst affected away from the virus whilst hoping that those healthy will help contain the spread with developed immunity.

Thank you for the response @stowie. FWIW the critique of our government's "strategy" below by a Harvard Prof is better than what I could have written. Hope you like it:

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

Matt Hancock has apparently started to try to row back this nonsense. Good thing, but does it not make you wonder what kind of "experts" have we chosen to steer our ship in this storm?

If I were the CMO/CSA, having received this from over 400 scientists etc etc, I would have resigned in shame.

 

[oldfatfool]

Surely if we spending billions on helping the over 70s - it seems reasonable to raise the state pension age and trim a few benefits.

Not now but it will come ...

Thought the idea was to cull the over 70s save a fortune and get rid of those pesky voters that stop government from scrapping benefits.