Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
No, sorry. Do not understand what you're trying to say (as amended). What will rise? And rise from what?
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- Location
- Glasgow
Probably right: about a dozen people I know personally have been C positive during the last 2 weeks.
Age groups from 6 months to 60+ yo.
No one seems to end up in hospital or be really poorly with it.
In the hospital where I work, there have been plenty of elderly patients with the virus, lots asymptomatic, no one gravely ill from the virus.
I still haven't caught it
markemark
Über Member
Ok. During lockdown the cases plummeted. As lockdown has ended cases will rise, hospitalisation will rise and deaths will rise. The evidence shows that severe illness is much less than previous variants and deaths will be dramatically lower than from previous variants. But all will rise during an exit wave.
Government know this and will have factored it in. Deaths will rise to a level that the government has decided it can live with.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Incomprehensible (to me - sorry, I tried). I can find no sign (causation or correlation) of "deaths rising after a lockdown ended". Give me the (your) end dates of these 'lockdowns' (there wasn't one in late 2021, was there?) so we can review the hospital admissions and death rates (see graphs below). Are you talking 29 Mar 2021? Or some time in 2021? June/July 2021 end of restrictions coincided with Delta so confounding 'wave' formations: the policy, albeit unstated was to get to herd immunity by vaccination and natural infection combo in the summer months. Somewhat screwed by a much more infectious (and vaccine evading) variant (Omicron) emerging making herd immunity objective unachievable.
Not much 'waving' post lockdown in July and August 2020. Describing the steady increase in September/October as 'because lockdown ended' is a stretch: months after 'lockdown' ended (EOTHO!). Did cases 'plummet' in November 2020? Well, they went down a bit.
There have been three waves: Apr 2020, Jan 2021 and Jan 2022. Cases "plummeted" in May 2020 and Jan/Feb 2021: both partly as a result of lockdowns (majority view). Cases "plummeted" in Jan 2022, but not because of lockdown (so why?).
Reduction of testing means from now on the best way to track cases is actually by ONS infection estimates.
(NB England)
Here's my simple model: cases rise, lockdown implemented, (tragically) deaths rise (about 20 day between peaks), cases fall, deaths fall; new variant and/or autumn: cases rise, . . . and repeat, once. Summer 2021: new variant but cases and deaths at far lower levels because of vulnerable/O/50s vaccinated even though no lockdown.
Last autumn variant more transmissible but less lethal has resulted in a low wave of hospitalisations (NB normally happen in Dec/Jan/Feb every years for respiratory diseases) and a deficit of deaths (all causes) (below average (2015-2019) levels). Current tick up in hospital admission rate is 'happens to be with' not 'because of' for the majority of the patients in current cohort (+ve test on admission). The evidence for this is that hospital admissions are rising cin synch with cases, as opposed to the (average) 9 day delay we have seen over the last 2 years.
Don't know why the death rate in Scotland has ticked up these last 28 days. Anyone?
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Had my 4th back on 4th Feb. Exactly 1 year after my first.
classic33
Leg End Member
Saturday, to the day*, would have been a year from the first for me.
13th March last year.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
In case there are new readers, see https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/the-retirement-thread.216598/post-6346464
Bit annoying they've no flag on the alerts database to avoid bothering you.
oldwheels
Legendary Member
- Location
- Isle of Mull
The Scottish government is contemplating extending the compulsory mask wearing period but no announcement as yet.
I am still awaiting my 4th jab but should be soon. Meantime I keep clear of crowded places as much as possible. Our Post Office is closed due to the staff being infected.
I am still awaiting my 4th jab but should be soon. Meantime I keep clear of crowded places as much as possible. Our Post Office is closed due to the staff being infected.
Much as I kind of agree , the horse has bolted already. Mask wearing now is minimal. Unless in shops and public transport. My work place is now nearly non extistant.
classic33
Leg End Member
Why you felt like having to let "new readers" know my medical history, let alone link to another, unconnected, thread is unclear. I was open with it on the relevant threads. It's not something I've hidden.
The result wasn't something I'm proud off, an ambulance wasted and a cubical taken up in A&E as a result, simply so they could keep an eye on me. There were others that could have used those facilities if I'd not ignored medical advice about vaccinations, on a personal level.
There were phonecalls, surgery and national numbers, letters and texts, this time last year. And a year on I'll not blame the system in place at the time.
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oldwheels
Legendary Member
- Location
- Isle of Mull
Many if not most here still mask up in shops but the ferry is full of tourists who see no need but locals mostly still do. Noticed the double decker bus today loading up with day trippers and no masks to be seen.
Milzy
Guru
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...AFcApWw2q-a0JbULnqn4fNv8Fg1Adp8nEvirZSda2KZvw
The conspiracy theorists were right all along.
The conspiracy theorists were right all along.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Click bait. Whatifitis? Massive assumptions. 'Some scientists / "growing number [but tiny minority] of experts"'. Have resisted Mail links for several months: take all the kudos you deserve for enticing me to open it.
Johnno260
Veteran
- Location
- East Sussex
So we had 165k deaths with lockdowns and a vaccine is that not a high enough body count for you?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Lockdowns aren’t a silver bullet, it’s part of a package of measures to mitigate the spread and protect vulnerable people.
But again it’s not just vulnerable at risk I know healthy people who have seriously long term health issues from Covid, one is a child as well.
Masks work, social distancing and lockdowns work, vaccines work, incredulity doesn’t and in this case it potentially costs lives.
