Coronavirus outbreak

[midlife]

After working all through the pandemic I have the feeling that I'm behind stalked more by covid than ever before . Its rife at the school where my wife works and more people at work seem to have it.

Maybe stalking is the wrong word but I feel its just a mater of time..... Despite the cases falling

 

[Ajax Bay]

Demographics for the South East (excludes London) - in slight growth the last few days, turning flat. School ages leading with associated growth in parental ages. Interesting that there's a third stream of growth appearing in the demographics - child > parent > grandparent? The spacing and timing looks right.
Note that these are second order plots which show growth (or decay) rate.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Next week patient-facing health workers who've not yet been vaccinated against COVID-19, for whatever reason, will need their first jab (to allow for an 8 week gap to their second) if they are to carry on in such a role. There are various arguments.

1. The policy of mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers goes against 'bodily autonomy' [It's doesn't.]
2. The policy is contrary to the ethical principle of informed consent. [Nope, not that either.]
3. Healthcare workers who refuse to be vaccinated are coerced to have the vaccination. [coercion with a small 'c'. Even if such description is reasonable, the question remains: is it morally justified?]
4. The policy will lead to a mass exodus of staff, which will damage the healthcare system and patient care [Maybe - figures available. Other countries offer an idea of the extent of this. There will a deadline cohort, hoping the policy will be abandoned.]
5. There is no evidence that vaccination stops infection or transmission. [Mmmm]

Effectiveness of vaccine against Omicron infection and transmission still tbc. UK HSA (20 Jan): "several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection" and that, since uninfected people cannot transmit the virus, "the vaccines provide some protection against transmission". The report noted: "There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding)."

There is strong evidence that the vaccine is effective against serious illness / hospital admission. US CDC data suggests that vaccinated adults aged 18 to 49 are 12x less likely to be admitted to hospital than the unvaccinated.
For 50 to 64s, the likelihood of hospital admission is 44 times less (US CDC). UK ONS figures suggest that the likelihood of developing long COVID-19 is 41% lower for the doubly-vaccinated.

So vaccinated healthcare workers who nevertheless get infected with COVID-19 are less likely to be absent from the 'front line' for a prolonged period than their non-vaccinated counterparts, easing pressure on the NHS.

 

[KnittyNorah]

Next week patient-facing health workers who've not yet been vaccinated against COVID-19, for whatever reason, will need their first jab (to allow for an 8 week gap to their second) if they are to carry on in such a role. There are various arguments.

1. The policy of mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers goes against 'bodily autonomy' [It's doesn't.]
2. The policy is contrary to the ethical principle of informed consent. [Nope, not that either.]
3. Healthcare workers who refuse to be vaccinated are coerced to have the vaccination. [coercion with a small 'c'. Even if such description is reasonable, the question remains: is it morally justified?]
4. The policy will lead to a mass exodus of staff, which will damage the healthcare system and patient care [Maybe - figures available. Other countries offer an idea of the extent of this. There will a deadline cohort, hoping the policy will be abandoned.]
5. There is no evidence that vaccination stops infection or transmission. [Mmmm]

Effectiveness of vaccine against Omicron infection and transmission still tbc. UK HSA (20 Jan): "several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection" and that, since uninfected people cannot transmit the virus, "the vaccines provide some protection against transmission". The report noted: "There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding)."

There is strong evidence that the vaccine is effective against serious illness / hospital admission. US CDC data suggests that vaccinated adults aged 18 to 49 are 12x less likely to be admitted to hospital than the unvaccinated.
For 50 to 64s, the likelihood of hospital admission is 44 times less (US CDC). UK ONS figures suggest that the likelihood of developing long COVID-19 is 41% lower for the doubly-vaccinated.

So vaccinated healthcare workers who nevertheless get infected with COVID-19 are less likely to be absent from the 'front line' for a prolonged period than their non-vaccinated counterparts, easing pressure on the NHS.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Similar, but in essence very different, to me, as I was willing-but-unable, in the 1980s when I never developed any titre of immunity to rubella, despite being vaccinated multiple times. So I had to abandon my research post in ultrasound and never did get a PhD; another job was found for me and I moved onto an entirely different path well away from pregnant women. I'm afraid I have little sympathy for the able-but-unwilling ...

 

[midlife]

I have to be vaccinated against Hep B to do my job, the older you get the response to the Hep B vaccine reduces.... Took 3 jabs to keep me seroconverted if memory serves...

The government will delay the requirement for mandatory covid vaccination due to their overall vaccine rollout success IMHO

 

[KnittyNorah]

The government will delay the requirement for mandatory covid vaccination due to their overall vaccine rollout success IMHO

I think you're probably right.

 

[Rusty Nails]

I think you're probably right.

On the one hand It's freedom time...no masks, clubs open, care home restrictions slashed and on the other things are so serious that they are prepared to sack unvaccinated NHS staff despite the extra pressures this will cause the NHS.

I suspect the government is looking for a climbdown that doesn't look like a climbdown on this issue.

 

[icowden]

It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Similar, but in essence very different, to me, as I was willing-but-unable, in the 1980s when I never developed any titre of immunity to rubella, despite being vaccinated multiple times. So I had to abandon my research post in ultrasound and never did get a PhD; another job was found for me and I moved onto an entirely different path well away from pregnant women. I'm afraid I have little sympathy for the able-but-unwilling ...

Indeed - and if you try getting a patient facing job with a Private healthcare company or via NHS Staff Bank, you will not be considered unless you have had immunisations for TB, Chickenpox, Mumps, Measles, etc, so it really isn't anything new.

It still baffles me that someone can practice medicine but be reluctant to take it. To my mind it's the same is if you went to a restaurant but found that some of the staff wouldn't eat there if you paid them.

 

[KnittyNorah]

Indeed - and if you try getting a patient facing job with a Private healthcare company or via NHS Staff Bank, you will not be considered unless you have had immunisations for TB, Chickenpox, Mumps, Measles, etc, so it really isn't anything new.

It still baffles me that someone can practice medicine but be reluctant to take it. To my mind it's the same is if you went to a restaurant but found that some of the staff wouldn't eat there if you paid them.

I can tolerate members of the 'lay' public saying they 'don't want' vax A, or are objecting in principle to vax B, or mandatory ones(eg for kids to start school), claiming so-called philosophical or religious exemptions and other nonsense. It doesn't mean I like it, agree with it or understand it, but I am willing to tolerate it.

But I am both baffled and insulted by this sort of behaviour from medical professionals, and the confused, and confusing, supposed and so-called 'principles' - whatever they might be - behind it.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Amazing scan

 

[classic33]

Two years ago, yesterday, since the first case was identified in the UK.

 

[midlife]

Two years ago, yesterday, since the first case was identified in the UK.

Can't speak for others but for me that 2 years has gone quick!

 

[Ming the Merciless]

First case local was 1.5 miles away was reported 2nd March 20.A parent at local primary school.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Some may have read that from 31 Jan they are to give a breakdown by reinfection status and last night's update to the gov.uk dashboard gives us the figures.
Looks like a non-issue for case rates as the %age is so small. However it's interesting to look at the reinfection data.
The main black curve (below) is newReinfectionsBySpecimenDate / newCasesBySpecimenDate: the fraction each day that are reinfections. Total daily infections are shown in faint grey for context (see peaks α NYD 2021, δ mid July 2022, and ο NYD 2022). Enjoy!
Jun 2020 reinfections in original strain. Very low reinfections in α phase (mid Sep 20 - mid Mar 21), but then ramped up (mid Mar - mid Apr ? easing of restrictions? but before δ), settled down again through δ Jun-Nov 21, and then rocketed as catching ο was much less protected by immunity from previous infection. Variant variance with likely some waning?

 

[Bazzer]

Daughter 2 currently self isolating after testing positive for a 2nd time, (and possibly the third time) she has had the virus. - Fully vaccinated and boosted. Her boyfriend also isolating after he caught it for a second time. - Also fully vaccinated and boosted.
In the meantime, my sister, also fully vaccinated and boosted, who caught covid just before Christmas is still struggling. She is supposed to be having surgery in the next couple of weeks, but personally I'd be surprised if the anaesthetist gives it approval.