Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

Anyone else bothered by people diving in and out of the country? Especially in Europe where even the much lauded Germans very sadly appear to be under the cosh and various restrictions are being applied in other Euro states.

Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter.

And I'm very relaxed about cycle tourists. Any new variant will probably get established the UK by air travel and airport holding pens long before someone rode home with it.

 

[alicat]

Netherlands PM Rutte to address the nation at 7pm local time (6pm UK) this evening. He is expected to announce lockdown from 7pm Saturday for 3 weeks, closing hospitality, non-essential shops and sporting events and setting a "rule of four" for visiting each other's homes. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/netherlands-lockdown-winter-covid-cases-record-high-europe-1297272

I'm not surprised. I went house sitting in Europe mid-Oct to mid-Nov and almost nobody was wearing masks in the Netherlands.

Anyone else bothered by people diving in and out of the country? Especially in Europe where even the much lauded Germans very sadly appear to be under the cosh and various restrictions are being applied in other Euro states.

I've just come back from Europe. Rates in Germany were lower than in the UK and I felt safer there than here. I had to take a lateral flow test on my return.

 

[classic33]

It wasn't quite that strict, I think, with a curfew rather than total closure of hospitality.

Belgium has reintroduced mask rules and home working orders.

Ireland has also ordered home working, making the health minister who said it wasn't being considered look silly.

And a first systematic review suggests masks are the top non-drug way to cut covid cases that it could identify, maybe halving them. More data is needed before they can say much about some other measures. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ost-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

Totally different approach taken in Ireland in some sectors.
Many want restrictions to stay in place within the hospitality business, rather than removed to the extent they have been here. With business owners more supportive of the restrictions.

New variant more likely to enter/exit via surface travel than air as air travel is heavily behind the testing before being allowed to board.

 

[mjr]

New variant more likely to enter/exit via surface travel than air as air travel is heavily behind the testing before being allowed to board.

That's testing up to 3 days before being allowed to board in many cases, isn't it? I can understand why that window was necessary when travel test centres were still in short supply, but it feels like the window for infection between test and travel really ought to have been narrowed a bit by now in places with fast and plentiful travel test appointments like Germany.

 

[rockyroller]

heard a recent poll in our state MA 1/3 to 1/4 of parents DO NOT PLAN to vaccinate their children

 

[BoldonLad]

That's testing up to 3 days before being allowed to board in many cases, isn't it? I can understand why that window was necessary when travel test centres were still in short supply, but it feels like the window for infection between test and travel really ought to have been narrowed a bit by now in places with fast and plentiful travel test appointments like Germany.

I don't know what the tests are called, but, my son, who has been travelling more or less throughout Covid, on business (Oil Industry), has recently had a change of routine, no more testing, and overnight stays waiting for results, results available with a short time scale, so, almost "test and go", at airport.

 

[KnittyNorah]

Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter.

And I'm very relaxed about cycle tourists. Any new variant will probably get established the UK by air travel and airport holding pens long before someone rode home with it.

The only reason I am unhappy about lack/loosening of travel restrictions is because of total lack of compliance checking and the inevitable irresponsible behaviour of many which is the inevitable result.

I think we could be in a fairly reasonable place if a significant minority of people didn't clearly think/imagine/whatever-it-is that the risk of C-19 is all but over. And that is ignoring those eejits who never thought it existed to begin with ...

 

[Ajax Bay]

Not particularly bothered by travellers who abide by the restrictions here, there, during travel and on return. Most of western europe is doing better than the UK and I don't think a new variant has taken hold anywhere yet, has it? So travellers aren't making things worse just now, there are economic and mental health benefits to allowing them but maybe compliance checking on return should be stricter

Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months so the figures from Be Ne Deu Ost Hun are probably worse than shown above.
I was amazed to hear that good friends (couple) had visited Vienna for a long weekend. But it was his 'big 50', and you only get one of those.

 

[mjr]

View attachment 618278
Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months [...]

What's the basis for that claim, please? So few are following the testing regime around here that they have to ask a supervisor how to issue a test pack, six weeks after the current procedure came in, while even walk-in test centres basically only get contact referrals AFAICT. But maybe it's different elsewhere.

While according to friends in Germany and Benelux at least, people actually seem to be checking covid certificates, with the knock on effect of more testing.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I asserted: "Bear in mind that testing regimes/rates have been far weaker than UK's over the last few months . . ."

What's the basis for that claim, please?

Think you could have managed to fact check this yoursel' with minimal effort.
High vaccination rates and steady take up of third doses by the more vulnerable (70+ and CEV, but needs to be better) coupled with our high population immunity from 'natural infection' that we got the very hard way at great cost, reinforces the point that the UK might not be in the shittest of shitty places, relatively, as we come into winter.
WE need to devote extra resources in to fixing NHS overload, particularly into the care sector where it takes less time to train than most higher shortage category NHS roles. Money spent on create a bed in a care home buys a space in an NHS hospital. This would reduce the load on the NHS in the most appropriate way. further NPIs will not do it, nor be politically achievable.
I believe a lot of the testing in Germany goes unrecorded (we have discussed this before a few pages upthread or on one of the other threads, where @Andy in Germany offered the background).

Austria's testing has been 'off the chart' higher: I have excluded its line to allow visibility of all the other traces.

 

[mjr]

Think you could have managed to fact check this yoursel' with minimal effort.
[...]
Austria's testing has been 'off the chart' higher: I have excluded its line to allow visibility of all the other traces.

I did check it myself and found no evidence that their testing regimes are weaker. To be fair, nor have you. You have only shown lower reported test rates, except for Ostria, and even if they were following the exact same test regime as the UK in theory, wouldn't the higher case numbers in the UK until last week result in many times more contact tests? The UK now only advises testing by vaccinated contacts of cases and does not require it.

Uk test regime: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...ot-do#get-tested-and-self-isolate-if-required
Belgium test regime: https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/testing/#who
Netherland test regime: https://www.government.nl/topics/co...llowing-contact-with-someone-with-coronavirus
Exact German rules vary by state, as covered many times on here.

I also note the UK average appears to stay below 15 per thousand, even during the period when we were told to test twice a week. I wonder what the story behind that is but do not have time to check immediately.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I did check it myself and found no evidence that their testing regimes are weaker. To be fair, nor have you. You have only shown lower reported test rates

OK, so might I get you to "bear in mind that" "the daily per million rates of reported testing (acting as a lead indicator) have been far lower than UK's over the last few months . . "?
The factor I sought to highlight was that UK reports more tests per case and has done for months, with the implication that actual case rates on the continent are even higher than reported - in the same way as the ONS sero survey suggests in UK that infectious infections on any one day are about twice the reported case rate (7 day average).

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Austria making vaccinations compulsory from 1st Feb next year.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Austria making vaccinations compulsory from 1st Feb next year.

Just having that discussion, maybe that will come here but doubt Bojo has the balls ( oops off to NACA I should go )

 

[mjr]

OK, so might I get you to "bear in mind that" "the daily per million rates of reported testing (acting as a lead indicator) have been far lower than UK's over the last few months . . "?

Yes, but that's quite different from claiming the testing regimes are weaker than the poor UK one, I don't think it's interesting and I'm unsure whether the (...) bit is true internationally.

The factor I sought to highlight was that UK reports more tests per case and has done for months, with the implication that actual case rates on the continent are even higher than reported - in the same way as the ONS sero survey suggests in UK that infectious infections on any one day are about twice the reported case rate (7 day average).

Without similar estimates from Destatis, Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Belgium and so on, I'm not sure even that implication has much of a basis other than nationalism (in the literal sense).