Alex321
Guru
- Location
- South Wales
My booster is on Wednesday. Two days short of 6 calendar months, but over the 182 days for half a year.
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Are you sure? At first glance, it looks to me like some low vaccination rate countries are near the highest CFRs, whereas the so-NPI-unwilling-they-are-rioting Netherlands is near the lowest.
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
New Zealand tightening the screws on the unvaccinated with new traffic light system.
fossyant
Ride It Like You Stole It!
- Location
- South Manchester
Europe is looking concerning. Won't be holidaying overseas. Can't understand staff wanting to travel for business (not that essential) as our insurance won't cover covid delays, so staff having to take out extra insurance and claim back. Silly.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Maybe they're worrying for future work? Between the B-word and Coronavirus and just scheduling before that, it can easily have been more than two years since they've been face to face with decision-makers or collaborators, whereas some competitors have been able to travel more recently. Much as I love video calls and online conferences, nothing replaces being in the room occasionally for some fields of work. (edited to rephrase the ending)
Europe is now looking mixed. AT/CZ/SK/HU/SI/HR now have more cases than us but HR may have peaked, whereas NL/FR/ES still have fewer cases but are deteriorating fast. A summary in four pictures:
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rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
heard something good on NPR this morning. 74% of Americans aged 5 & up have been vaccinated w/ at least 1 jab. really surprised me
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
@rockyroller To save lives, the important metric is the percentage of over 60s that have been fully vaccinated (but the US measure is, I guess, easier to collect/report). The IFR starts ramping up from then. Increasingly this measure may need to be amended to: 'a dose within the last 7 months' given the expectation of waning protection seems to have been realised.
For the under 40 age goups the IFR rate is so low that however that half of the population get antibodies, mercifully very few will succumb - still better to achieve that by vaccination though.
Must confess some forriner suspicion (that's me that's the forriner) that the Iberian Peninsula has achieved such a high %, and wonder whether there are denominator issues in play (ie they don't actually know an accurate number in each age cohort).
For the under 40 age goups the IFR rate is so low that however that half of the population get antibodies, mercifully very few will succumb - still better to achieve that by vaccination though.
Must confess some forriner suspicion (that's me that's the forriner) that the Iberian Peninsula has achieved such a high %, and wonder whether there are denominator issues in play (ie they don't actually know an accurate number in each age cohort).
rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
ok that's over my head, but thank you. we have another troubling thing I heard. 1/4 to 1/3 of parents in my state (Massachusetts) say they won't vaccinate their kids
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
We are definitely the forriners, because the first doses in the UK saw over 100% age cohort take-up in several areas! However, most cohort size estimation errors got resolved during the first dose and the UK and Portugal both took a census in 2021.
Most of the time, Spain has much better population data than the UK or Portugal because rather than one census a decade, they have up-to-date municipal population registers, the Padrón (empadronamiento), which is now held in a single national database.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I am pleased that people feel they have the parental freedom to make a perfectly reasonable choice (see commentary on reasonableness below). Why are you troubled by this, in the Land of the Free?
I exclude from this children with underlying health conditions who need to get vaccinated. And if a child is living in the same house as a elderly or CEV adult it surely makes sense for them to be jabbed too.
The balance of benefits/risks to the individual child's health is marginal to be generous, which is well argued in the UK's JCVI statement. The impact on their education of disruption from their and other's infections was used in the UK (by the 4 home nations' CMOs) to justify extending the jab down to the 12 and overs (and imo a reasonable rationale).
The entire population will need to gain a level of protection either by vaccination or naturally before this pandemic transitions to endemic. Most of UK's under 15s have now gained antibodies nasally rather than intramuscularly during the summer and before half term. This should stand the UK population in better stead this winter when combined with progressive third doses rolling down through the age groups to the 40s, to counter any protection waning. Aiui there is emerging evidence that the protection afforded by the third jab is even better than after 2 and it's been suggested that it also reduces the transmission rate.
Every little helps (need to get the third dose take up as high as possible, for each individual's benefit and for society).
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DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
Your source for that assertion is ... ?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
You're right to ask - a wild assertion. There are about 8M 4-15s in UK. Drawing on the colourful age cohort chart I posted (previous page, based on gov.uk data) about 1M 5-15s have reported positives and one can at least double that (based on the historic relationship between cases reported and the ONS serology infection estimates). So well below 'most' unless the multiplier is higher.
(@midlife beat me to it, but with the 'source') in Germany their Health Minister's estimate (not mincing his words but sort of attributing them to someone else):
"Probably by the end of this winter, as is sometimes cynically said, pretty much everyone in Germany will be vaccinated, cured [ie infected and recovered] or dead," Spahn says. https://www.bbc.co.uk/ and also: publicly blamed those people for the soaring cases, describing the current situation as a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" - referring to the preponderance of the COVID-19 cases in German hospitals.
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
How about this (told to LBC):
Zahawi (who of course has 'previous' on vaccines) said that a combination of natural immunity and the UK's high vaccination rate could allow the country to transition into a post coronavirus world before other countries. "Our four-step plan [refers to the Government's staged timetable for the release of control measures in England (Mar-Jul)] meant that we were able to open up the economy in the summer. We will probably, I hope, without being complacent, be the first major economy in the world to demonstrate how you transition [from] pandemic to endemic using vaccines."
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- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
No extension to Covid Passport Scheme in Scotland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59389834
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59389834
