slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
It looks like the "non-vaccinated" could be a dwindling cohort, one way or another.
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And we need data on the characteristics of the double jabbed who end up in hospital.
Is it the same (set of) people who were most at risk when unvaccinated ie obese and or other co-morbidities?
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Does this Zoe covid screengrab help?
Note: it's only those who test positive, not hospitalisations or deaths.
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slowmotion
Quite dreadful
- Location
- lost somewhere
Thanks. Yes it does.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
It's right, but it's not good!
newfhouse
Resolutely on topic
You should get tested if it persists.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
A nice graphical illustration of why 40% vaccinated in hospital is, entirely counterintuitively, a good thing.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Does 'vaccinated' here mean double jabbed or does it include singles?
kingrollo
Guru
Any chance you could put a bit more meat on the bones as to what this means - have we reduced expected admissions by close on 90% ?
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Yes, perhaps a bit less. Without vaccination:
The unvaccinated 60% admissions remain as they would have been.
The vaccinated 40% admissions would have been 10x higher, 400%.
So the total would have been 60+400= 460% of what it is without vaccinating. ~80% drop
These are intended as illustrative only. In reality transmission would also have been much higher without vaccines, and society would have largely shut down, whether through lockdown diktat or self preservation, I think.
Yes very good illustration. I'm highly numerate, but find it quite hard getting my mind around these sorts of numbers - and impossible to explain to anyone else
And when we have 100% vaccinated, then, given that no vaccine is perfect, 100% of the (very few) cases will be vaccinated.
It's a lot more complex that that.
Depending on which Vaccine you have had, and when you had it, your likely immunity will vary. For example, your first dose gives you a likely 76% efficacy rising to 82% after the second dose and time for that to take effect. This means that you are a lot less likely to get Covid than if you had not been vaccinated, but you can still get it.
If you have been immunised and you *do* get Covid, then you have another bonus which is that your body is already primed for it, so in most cases you will get a much milder infection than had you not been immunised.
But, the majority of people who have had serious hospitalisation have had co-morbidities. In other words, they were already ill with something else. This can alter how they are able to respond to infection. Some people were just unlucky and there is something in their genetic makeup which means that they have proved much more susceptible than others. We do know that obesity and breathing related illnesses (e.g. asthma) increase risk with Covid.
It may be that many people admitted to hospital with Covid, would have been admitted for something else anyway - due to age, comorbidities etc.
Then we have another factor which is that Covid mutates. The immunisations were based on the first variants isolated. As Covid changes, it may be that newer strains such as the Delta or Lambda are not as well protected against. It could also be that they cause less or more likely damage.
A simpler way to put it is this:-
You can reduce your chances of becoming seriously ill with Covid by getting immunised and by taking reasonable safety measures such as wearing a mask when in an area with poor ventilation and many people - e.g. shops. Good air flow can really help, but you want to avoid inhaling other people's breath.
There is no 100% protection other than staying in your home, not having any visitors and creating an airlock and quarantine process for delivered goods.
At the moment the UK Government (unlike some other countries) is not trying to eradicate Covid, just to mitigate the effect and reduce the risk of death and serious illness. No-one knows whether this is the right approach. It is however a bit of an outlier compared to many other countries.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
It is very counterintuitive.
Put it a different way. Start from the premise that vaccination is very effective, but not perfect.
Before vaccination, 100% of admissions were unvaccinated.
If we vaccinate *everyone* then as vaccination isn't perfect, *all*, 100% of admissions would be vaccinated.
