Coronavirus outbreak

[lane]

It's really impossible to see any scenario where daily hospitalizations are not in 4 figures wihin the next few weeks.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Daily hospitalisations have never reached a 4 figures on a daily basis, if that started today, we would have no beds by Thursday.

I think you must be at cross purposes on metrics.

Daily hospitalizations reached over 4000 in January.

From the govt dashboard:

 

[Johnno260]

I think looking at the numbers we see daily case rises, if hospitalization and mortality stay on a level it means vaccination is working and we have to hope that is the case.

If we start seeing spikes then we have to ask questions.

For example from the US office I work for and news reports deaths in the US are mainly in the un-vaccinated, people here need to look at those reports and question their logic in refusing the vaccine.

The vaccinated deaths are mainly from high risk demographic groups, I have shutdown multiple people on social media now claiming death rates with vaccinated are high, as they straw man the data and pick high risk groups to push their narrative, these groups will be high risk regardless of the vaccine or not.

It's the same as the scare mongers claiming winter for the double vaccinated who are taking a booster will be the end of them, they will be taking the 3rd shot as they're high risk, they will be the highest possible mortality rate for obvious reasons.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

Why do you write complete nonsense of course they have they are already nearly 400 some days and four figures is 1,000 which has been reached many times in the past. You have to be really careful when posting to make sure you dont come across as a complete idiot.

I think you must be at cross purposes on metrics.

Daily hospitalizations reached over 4000 in January.

From the govt dashboard:

View attachment 597444

No, no, no, no.

Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.

If we had 1001 people admitted every single day we would have no beds by the end of the week. There may be 1001 people in hospital today, then 2 get discharged and 2 die, and are replaced by 4 new people, that means we have a daily hospitalisation of 4, but an in-patient population on a daily basis of 1001.

If the daily hospitalisation was 1001, then tomorrow we have 2002, Wednesday is 3003, Thursday is 4004, Friday is 5005 and Saturday we all knock it on the head and go home because we won't have any beds.

@lane no need to call me an idiot is there?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No, no, no, no.

Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.

If we had 1001 people admitted every single day we would have no beds by the end of the week. There may be 1001 people in hospital today, then 2 get discharged and 2 die, and are replaced by 4 new people, that means we have a daily hospitalisation of 4, but an in-patient population on a daily basis of 1001.

If the daily hospitalisation was 1001, then tomorrow we have 2002, Wednesday is 3003, Thursday is 4004, Friday is 5005 and Saturday we all knock it on the head and go home because we won't have any beds.

@lane no need to call me an idiot is there?

So by "Daily hospitalisations", you mean the net increase beds occupied?

That's clear, but different to the language commonly used for COVID.

I'm not aware of your metric being routinely reported - we have admissions (commonly referred to as hospitalisations) and, beds occupied and ICU (or "ventilated") beds commonly reported.

 

[lane]

No, no, no, no.

Each day there were sometimes 000s of people in hospital of course, that is different to daily hospitalisations, which is the amount of new people admitted each day.

If we had 1001 people admitted every single day we would have no beds by the end of the week. There may be 1001 people in hospital today, then 2 get discharged and 2 die, and are replaced by 4 new people, that means we have a daily hospitalisation of 4, but an in-patient population on a daily basis of 1001.

If the daily hospitalisation was 1001, then tomorrow we have 2002, Wednesday is 3003, Thursday is 4004, Friday is 5005 and Saturday we all knock it on the head and go home because we won't have any beds.

@lane no need to call me an idiot is there?

No no no

There are two metrics reported each day hospital ADMISSIONS and also TOTAL number of people in hospital.

 

[Craig the cyclist]

So by "Daily hospitalisations", you mean the net increase beds occupied?

No, 'daily hospilisations' is the amount of people admitted each day, it is not a cumulative number where you add the amount of new admissions to the people already in. There will not 000s admitted every day, but there will be times when the total amount admitted tips the total population in hospital over 000.

That's clear, but different to the language commonly used for COVID.

This will be interesting, what language do they use in Covid that I don't understand?

I'm not aware of your metric being routinely reported - we have admissions (commonly referred to as hospitalisations) and, beds occupied and ICU (or "ventilated") beds commonly reported.

Which metric is that?

 

[Craig the cyclist]

No no no

There are two metrics reported each day hospital ADMISSIONS and also TOTAL number of people in hospital.

So if you are IN HOSPITAL, then you are not a DAILY ADMISSION are you? You are already in, so you don't count as a daily hospitilastion.

Oh, by the way, there are more than two metrics reported each day.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No, 'daily hospilisations' is the amount of people admitted each day, it is not a cumulative number where you add the amount of new admissions to the people already in. There will not 000s admitted every day, but there will be times when the total amount admitted tips the total population in hospital over 000.


This will be interesting, what language do they use in Covid that I don't understand?


Which metric is that?

I'm confused by your post.

As posted above, I understand "hospitalizations" to mean the the uk govt reported "patients admitted".

They also report "patients in hospital"

Both have been well over 1000 during the pandemic, the former over 4,000 and the latter near 40,000. So I have no idea which figure it is that you say has "never reached a 4 figures on a daily basis", as both of these have.

I'm not claiming that you don't understand anything, just that this discussion is at cross purposes somehow.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

[lane]

My son has been contacted by the college regarding a positive case at the college. He has broken up and is now on holiday from college. The implication being he needs to self isolate. That got me wondering what power schools and colleges have in such situations as opposed to being contacted by test and trace where there is a clear legal requirement to self isolate. Going back to the legislation the only people who have a legal duty to tell you to self isolate are listed below. I don't think but wouldn't be certain the school are not covered in the list below. I know people will reply say to self isolate anyway - and that may be the correct advice - but irrespective I have always been interested throughout in understanding what we have to do legally and what is guidance as this has been deliberately obscured and caused many problems.


The persons specified for the purpose of paragraphs (1) and (2) are—

(a)the Secretary of State;

(b)a person employed or engaged for the purposes of the health service (within the meaning of section 275 of the National Health Service Act 2006(7) or section 108 of the National Health Service (Scotland) Act 1978(8));

(c)a person employed or engaged by a local authority.

 

[midlife]

I don’t think they can. Indeed being pinged on your phone is only enforceable if you have been pinged for going to a venue and not a social contact.

 

[mjr]

So it looks like the new Health Minister thinks covid can be treated like flu and the PM is pushing forwards with the "personal responsibility" nonsense. How can I take personal responsibility for the nutters who live in this borough? So I resent this approach to public health and the limitations it will put on my life as I try to avoid the shelf-lickers.

Peter Walker summarises at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-rules-england-what-boris-johnson-announced

This could be bad for business in at least two ways I can see:

1. If many people are cautious, demand for outdoor drinking/dining/shopping is going to outstrip supply and if the market does not respond swiftly (hindered as it is by apparent council refusals to remove parking and expand street terraces), that demand will probably switch to takeaways and online which are variously cheaper and often not as locally-owned.

2. If many people are reckless, infections will soar, the "variant factory" theory may be proved correct and we'll get another business-nuking lockdown this autumn until hopefully the heroes can develop and deploy a vaccine for the new variant.

Of course, it could all work out fine, but why risk it needlessly instead of keeping a few of the less onerous restrictions and introducing some easements for businesses to trade outside this summer? Is it a deliberate attempt to infect people in a repeat of last spring's failed "herd immunity" plan?

 

[lane]

So it looks like the new Health Minister thinks covid can be treated like flu and the PM is pushing forwards with the "personal responsibility" nonsense. How can I take personal responsibility for the nutters who live in this borough? So I resent this approach to public health and the limitations it will put on my life as I try to avoid the shelf-lickers.

Peter Walker summarises at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...id-rules-england-what-boris-johnson-announced

This could be bad for business in at least two ways I can see:

1. If many people are cautious, demand for outdoor drinking/dining/shopping is going to outstrip supply and if the market does not respond swiftly (hindered as it is by apparent council refusals to remove parking and expand street terraces), that demand will probably switch to takeaways and online which are variously cheaper and often not as locally-owned.

2. If many people are reckless, infections will soar, the "variant factory" theory may be proved correct and we'll get another business-nuking lockdown this autumn until hopefully the heroes can develop and deploy a vaccine for the new variant.

Of course, it could all work out fine, but why risk it needlessly instead of keeping a few of the less onerous restrictions and introducing some easements for businesses to trade outside this summer? Is it a deliberate attempt to infect people in a repeat of last spring's failed "herd immunity" plan?

I don't think Boris is going for herd immunity I think he's just idiotic as per Cummings characterisation. I think Whittey and Vallance are happy to have another go at herd immunity as I posted upthread.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

One of Tim Spector's principal concerns last week was that the delta variant doesn't present with what we think of as ''classic'' covid symptoms, at least among the younger. The fever has largely gone and symptoms are now very similar to a heavy cold - headaches, runny nose, cough, etc. His challenge to the government and the NHS was to inform the public of this change in how the disease presents. Unless Whitty slipped that in while I was having a moment of inattention, they've clearly failed that challenge.

It leaves us with people not suspecting they have covid even though they know they are not well and so they don't self-isolate or take steps to protect elderly and vulnerable people in their households and neighbourhood.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Westminster Tory politicians on the news keep on saying the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken". Welsh politicians take the more accurate, but less vainglorious and headline-grabbing, approach of saying it has been "weakened".