lane
Veteran
Under the age of 18 under current rules!
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Under the age of 18 under current rules!
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Herd immunity is normally used to include both naturally and vaccine acquired immunity.
There is not a single example of her immunity being acquired solely through natural infection.
classic33
Leg End Member
Pfizer vaccine is approved for use on kids down to the age of 12. Nothing available so far for below the age of 12.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Approved but not actually available.
Johnno260
Guru
- Location
- East Sussex
Also bear in mind there is a chunk of the population that will for whatever reason refuse any vaccination, a fair number attend those marches in London.
I don’t know how many there are in total but hopefully not a significant %
I don’t know how many there are in total but hopefully not a significant %
The dictionary definiton is:
Herd Immunity
resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination
And this works to the same definition:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
Your understanding, as stated above, is wrong:
The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.31 Dec 2020
Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19 Coronavirus disease
lane
Veteran
Given the R number seems to increase with every variant, a proportion won' t be vaccinated, vaccines are not 100% effective and people infected get re infected, immunity decreases over time and new variants will be able to evade to an extent previously aquired immunity, it seems that herd immunity may well never be achieved.
Low Gear Guy
Veteran
- Location
- Surrey
Medieval Europeans acquired immunity of a sort to flu and other viruses. This became evident when the Spanish invaded South America and took their diseases with them.
This situation occurred after many generations of premature deaths I.e. herd immunity was eventually reached at a high price.
That seems to be the case, as it is with the ever mutating influenza virus. We cope with that and the annual death toll. But provided there is sufficient (herd) immunity to slow transmission, and protection from major illness if infected, the longterm covid position will be similar.
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
They have updated the hospitalisation figures. Like you, I'm a little suspicious over the 1% figure.
For the 29th June: 358 hospitalisations. Given that it takes about 7 days from the onset of symptoms to hospitalisation, we need to look at the new infections on the 22nd June: 11481.
That's a 3% conversion from infection to hospitalisation. That's much worse than I was expecting. Granted, most of those hospitalised will be those who aren't fully vaccinated, but there is still the worrying indication that Delta has in part negated the vaccination benefit of reduced likelihood of hospitalisation.
We can extrapolate. It appears that infections are doubling every ten days or so (and actually that may be conservative). Assuming that's the case, by the end of the month there will be eight times the number of new infections as there was today - that's 200,000. Likewise, hospitalisations will be eight times higher - and be exceeding 2000/day at that point. Note that it's estimated that around 150,000/day were being infected when the first lockdown was implemented back in March last year.
In short, we'll be right back in the same situation we were in at the start of the first lockdown. A reasonable upper end estimate of hospitalisations is 6000/day by the end of the first week in August. That's perilously close to overwhelming the NHS. We can hope - perhaps even expect - that continued vaccination will bring the hospitalisation rate to below the current 3%. But... I don't expect herd immunity to start to reduce the numbers of infections until late August - so this high rate of hospital admissions will continue for weeks. I fear August will be touch and go for the NHS.
Note that none of the above is intended to be rigorous! - calling it "semi-quantitative" is rather generous. But that''s not my intention, rather, I want to emphasise that we're scarcely into the foothills of this third wave, and it's likely to be much worse than most people appreciate. My fear is that the last half of summer is likely to be much tougher than any of us would hope for.
That we're now seeing talk of mask wearing being a matter of "personal conscience" after the 19th July - this is extraordinarily unwise. Removing restrictions is likely to worsen the situation. It might be a good idea to avoid crowds and crowded areas (especially indoors) for at least couple of months. Especially if you're in a vulnerable category, or haven't yet been fully vaccinated.
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DCLane
Found in the Yorkshire hills ...
- Location
- Dewsbury, West Yorkshire
@McWobble I agree with you.
It seems that we've suddenly moved to a fully open society, leaving everyone to survive how they can. An 'if you're not vaccinated then that's your problem' approach.
Sajid Javed's looking at the financial impact, not the health one, so it becomes a free-for-all from July 19,th.
I've been careful, but around a lot of people this past week due to my son racing a lot. Now that's reducing I'm stepping back and not mixing. Otley races were far too packed this week and too risky for my own health, even if I'm no longer classed as vulnerable
It seems that we've suddenly moved to a fully open society, leaving everyone to survive how they can. An 'if you're not vaccinated then that's your problem' approach.
Sajid Javed's looking at the financial impact, not the health one, so it becomes a free-for-all from July 19,th.
I've been careful, but around a lot of people this past week due to my son racing a lot. Now that's reducing I'm stepping back and not mixing. Otley races were far too packed this week and too risky for my own health, even if I'm no longer classed as vulnerable
classic33
Leg End Member
One side effect I noticed after the easing of restrictions, the last two times, has been an increase in the number of places that were closed, now storing their bins on public footpaths.
This done in order to increase the outdoor space available. None fastened shut, and often overturned. If we're not careful, the next problem will be rats.
This done in order to increase the outdoor space available. None fastened shut, and often overturned. If we're not careful, the next problem will be rats.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
The policies on air pollution and so on are mostly pretty good, but unimplemented and unenforced except for a few groups dragging government through the courts.
