Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

SARS-CoV-2 variants - Technical briefing 14 dated 3 Jun. In particular I focus on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.
Severity
Analyses undertaken in England and Scotland found an increased risk of hospitalisation in Delta variant infection cases. Effect of vaccination with one or two doses on severity is not determined.
Based on analysis of genomic sequenced cases, there was a significantly increased risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date of 2.5 times (England HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.56-4.36).(Scotland 2.39, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.31).
Adjusted for age together with number of co morbid conditions, gender and vaccination status.
Transmissibility
Secondary attack rates are about 50% higher than the Alpha variant.
Vaccine Effectiveness

 

[silva]

The figures in India are likely under reported by a huge factor.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833

Likely?
One year ago, with no testing at all, they weren't underreported?

 

[Ajax Bay]

The change to travel category of Portugal, with less notice than the Government indicated was to be expected, seems a bit irrational. It's been said to be based on the presence of the Delta variant with the additional mutation K417N, but the evidence shared seems weak?
Will import from Portugal make much difference given the case rate in UK? This smacks of gesture politics: we must be seen to do something: an overreaction to the procrastinating handing of India's travel status in April with costly adverse effect. On the plus side, it should slow the transfer of Delta variant virus to Portugal: a 'good' thing'.

Having said that, apart from people who need to go and sort out second/holiday homes, travel outside the UK for holidays seems an unnecessary risk to take, both for individuals and their wider community. (Same goes for India etc in April, of course, and that didn't end well.)

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

The change to travel category of Portugal, with less notice than the Government indicated was to be expected, seems a bit irrational. It's been said to be based on the presence of the Delta variant with the additional mutation K417N, but the evidence shared seems weak?
Will import from Portugal make much difference given the case rate in UK? This smacks of gesture politics: we must be seen to do something: an overreaction to the procrastinating handing of India's travel status in April with costly adverse effect.
View attachment 592433
Having said that, apart from people who need to go and sort out second/holiday homes, travel outside the UK for holidays seems an unnecessary risk to take, both for individuals and their wider community. (Same goes for India etc in April, of course, and that didn't end well.)

I did wonder whether it was because a government minister on a football beano got beeped by the test and trace app.

 

[classic33]

I did wonder whether it was because a government minister on a football beano got beeped by the test and trace app.

That sounds like it could be the true reason.

 

[Milzy]

I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.

 

[Johnno260]

I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.

Yup and people will cry murder.

it’s been a running theme throughout and it’s a fluid situation that needs to be adapted to.

 

[DaveReading]

I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.

5th July being mooted as a revised date.

 

[PK99]

I can see a massive U-Turn on the 21st now.

What will be the U-turn?

We follow the data and don't open on the 21st?





ie as laid out in the Road Map

EDIT:

PS . Whatever the decision the same people will complain.

Open up - "They are ignoring the data"

Delay opening up - "U-turn!"

 

[mjr]

PS . Whatever the decision the same people will complain.

Open up - "They are ignoring the data"

Delay opening up - "U-turn!"

Gosh, it's almost like they should try to do the right thing to save most lives, rather than worrying about what people will say!

 

[Deleted User]

Gosh, it's almost like they should try to do the right thing to save most lives, rather than worrying about what people will say!

I assume it's people on here he's referring to.

 

[Johnno260]

Either way they get slammed open up and it costs lives slammed.

Delay opening up and people will go mental, and you feed the anti crowd as they will say told you so.

If it was me I would play it safe, I’m glad I’m not in government it’s a no win really.

 

[Adam4868]

If it was me I would play it safe, I’m glad I’m not in government it’s a no win really.

Oh I don't know if your white,middle class or even just married to the right person there's no limit on the ranks you can rise to....plus the cash is a extra bonus,goes without saying

 

[Adam4868]

Blackpool and the whole of the fylde coast has been packed this half term.Im not sure what the difference of opening up means ? There's queues at the Wetherspoons from 8 in the morning on the seafront.

 

[Ajax Bay]

If the Government decides to go ahead with setting the date for Phase 4 relaxation as 21 Jun, they will be doing so on the basis of the data available, assessed by the best brains UK has (SAGE, CSA, CMO). Some may think that the data should interpreted differently. The 4 tests have been clearly spelt out: I've shared my assessment of the likelihood of those tests being "passed" (based on a projection from current data) upthread ^^^ - to save you the effort I've pasted them below (thanks @PK99 ). Successfully, sufficiently, unsustainable, fundamentally.
Who else do you think is the best body to make that judgement?
"Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."