Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

let's hope their frankness doesn't play out to be a 'Cassandra' contribution

Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue.

It's playing out yet again now with Johnson breezily saying there's no reason we can't go ahead 21st whilst the scientific community says the opposite.

 

[lane]

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped.

Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows

 

[lane]

Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue.

It's playing out yet again now with Johnson breezily saying there's no reason we can't go ahead 21st whilst the scientific community says the opposite.

But with Johnson's track record of always making the right call what can possibly go wrong.

 

[lane]

Pfizer vaccine recipients have lower antibodies targeting Indian variant, study shows

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-vaccine-b938702.html

 

[Milzy]

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped.

Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows

It’s all maybes, nobody actually really knows for sure what will happen. Newspapers sensationalise everything. It’s the new normal.

 

[matticus]

Thus far the precise opposite has happened many times; rather than the "Cassandra" problem we've had a "Dr Pangloss" issue.

Oi - this is NACA, not Pseuds Corner!

 

[Johnno260]

Things will spike it’s recent history repeating itself.

It’s a combination of people wanting normality in my opinion and rushing out.

And the anti vax narrative ramping up, people are getting angry and listening to the cult of denial more, the more mainstream media try and block these guys it feeds their the truth is being suppressed narrative.

I have tried and there is zero point engaging with these people as any source they deem corrupted isn’t a viable one.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of the vaccine decision - it is concerning that we already have expectation that hospitals will be swamped. Town’s director of public health says ‘unjust’ decision could lead to local hospital being swamped within four weeks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-blackburn-says-nhs-as-infection-rate-grows

It’s all maybes, nobody actually really knows for sure what will happen. Newspapers sensationalise everything. It’s the new normal.

@lane did you read the article through? This is as @Milzy says: "all maybes"
And the reason they decided not to divert more vaccine supply there was that the population were not stepping up. So the whining of the MP and others should be introspective: 'we need to make more effort ourselves', to encourage vaccine uptake, through local community leaders. Blaming others gets nowhere. They must raise vaccine uptake in the hesitant over 50s (the vulnerable 98%): from these deliberately unvaccinated will be drawn the unhappy individuals who risk needing hospital after catching COVID-19.
Jane Scattergood, NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme lead in Lancashire and south Cumbria said it was “increasingly difficult to drive uptake in the eligible cohorts” during the second week of the surge fortnight in Blackburn. Not an "unjust" decision: a rational one.
Kate Hollern MP (local) said: “Given Blackburn has the highest rate of infections in the country, the government’s decision beggars belief. Without further surge vaccinations, the NHS will be placed under overwhelming and unnecessary pressure – the government’s inaction could cause entirely avoidable deaths across Lancashire.”
This assertion lacks logic. What will stop the spread of disease is not vaccines but good non-pharma interventions: willingness to get tested, adhering to quarantining and social distancing, and minimising inter household indoor mixing. The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals (note that between the sites they have ~1000 beds. I haven't been able to find out how many are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19. But last November it had 240; way more than currently. Pressure: yes. Unwelcome: yes. Overwhelming: err, no.

 

[mjr]

The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals

Because haranguing people is soooo persuasive(!)

I do not agree with the "blame the public" narrative while there is still so much gov.uk could do to make the case and encourage testing, such as reasonable sick pay while quarantined.

 

[lane]

@lane did you read the article through. This is as @Milzy says: "all maybes"
And the reason they decided not to divert more vaccine supply there was that the population were not stepping up. So the whining of the MP and others should be introspective: 'we need to make more effort ourselves', to encourage vaccine uptake, through local community leaders. Blaming others gets nowhere. They must raise vaccine uptake in the hesitant over 50s (the vulnerable 98%): from these deliberately unvaccinated will be drawn the unhappy individuals who risk needing hospital after catching COVID-19.
Jane Scattergood, NHS Covid-19 vaccination programme lead in Lancashire and south Cumbria said it was “increasingly difficult to drive uptake in the eligible cohorts” during the second week of the surge fortnight in Blackburn. Not an "unjust" decision: a rational one.
Kate Hollern MP (local) said: “Given Blackburn has the highest rate of infections in the country, the government’s decision beggars belief. Without further surge vaccinations, the NHS will be placed under overwhelming and unnecessary pressure – the government’s inaction could cause entirely avoidable deaths across Lancashire.”
This assertion lacks logic. What will stop the spread of disease is not vaccines but good non-pharma interventions: willingness to get tested, adhering to quarantining and social distancing, and minimising inter household indoor mixing. The MP should harangue her constituents: it would have much greater effect on minimising the strain on the Royal Blackburn Hospitals (note that between the sites they have ~1000 beds. I haven't been able to find out how many are currently occupied by patients who have tested positive for COVID-19. But last November it had 240; way more than currently. Pressure: yes. Unwelcome: yes. Overwhelming: err, no.

I did read the article. Did you read my post? Most of your answer seems to be regarding the rights and wrongs of not providing extra vaccine which i don't really have a view on and I don't really care about. I was concerned that a public health official was talking about hospitals being swamped in four weeks. I don't have an agenda to defend the Government though so might have read it through a different lens than you did.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Yes, I did read your post, and even quoted it!

I was concerned that a public health official was talking about hospitals being swamped in four weeks.

I suggest this is all 'talk' based on extreme projections (that the cases will increase at the same rate) and worst assumptions (that these cases in will result in hospitalisations at the same rate as when the population was not vaccinated at all).
I can understand your concern: public health officials should talk in a more measured way about the likelihood of demands on their trust hospitals. But I think the Guardian headline writers have misrepresented Blackburn’s Director of PH. He warned "the NHS that not providing additional doses would lead to avoidable deaths and the NHS being swamped within four weeks, calling it “unfair, unjust and avoidable”. [But extra supplies of vaccines would not change the (see be) low risk of that, edit: so I'd add: "unrelated".]
In Blackburn, because of the high number of cases both now, in September, and in November, there will be developing community immunity resulting from previous infection as well as vaccination. Besides NPI measure effects, this will mean cases do not continue to rise at the current rate and the risk of hospitals being "swamped" is top end sensitivity analysis territory.
We all read articles through an individual lens. I try to look at such assertions and see whether there's a basis for them.
Edit: In the whole of the North West (of which BwD is but a small part), the COVID-19 bed occupancy is 192 (@ 3 Jun).

 

[lane]

Bolton - "Town is ‘drowning in vaccines’ and bending national rules while other areas ask for more first doses."

"Across England, some local health services are offering jabs to people aged 18 or even 16 and over, while others – such as Blackburn, the current Covid hotspot – have begged for more first doses."

"University College London has told its students of all ages they can receive vaccinations from noon on Saturday at a surgery near its Bloomsbury campus."

"Several boroughs in Greater Manchester are deviating from the JCVI guidance"

It seems we had a good national system of vaccination and prioritisation which was working well and now that has gone to pot.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...id-jabs-four-weeks-after-first-to-use-surplus

 

[lane]

"Nearly six months after the government kicked off the country’s most ambitious vaccination campaign, almost one in four black people over the age of 70 were not vaccinated as of 26 May, compared with 97% of white people of the same age."

"Among black people in their 50s, this figure rises to one in three, compared with 90% of white people, prompting calls for government to redouble efforts to tackle disparities as restrictions are lifted."

https://www.theguardian.com/society...y-black-people-in-the-uk-still-not-vaccinated

Likely to become a problem with lockdown easing and the Indian variant both more likely to result in hospitalisation and being between 60% and 100% more transmittable than the Kent variant.

 

[mjr]

"Nearly six months after the government kicked off the country’s most ambitious vaccination campaign, almost one in four black people over the age of 70 were not vaccinated as of 26 May, compared with 97% of white people of the same age."

97% of white people over 70 not vaccinated? I think they've messed up the editing there!

 

[mjr]

Here is a very well-written report on that whole droplet/aerosol handwashing/ventilation debate from early in the pandemic: https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

Medics don't know physics as well as physicists, it turns out. Who knew? :,(