Coronavirus outbreak

[fossyant]

This increase in the Indian variant is filling me with dread again as I can see the whole of Greater Manchester getting restrictions like last July due to specific areas - same reasons as last time due to travel for education and work. Doom and gloom.

 

[mjr]

France is reopening cafe terraces. https://www.france24.com/en/france/...tural-venues-after-six-month-covid-19-closure

German goverment has quarantined two tower blocks where B1.617.2 has been found. https://www.irishnews.com/news/worl...se-buildings-after-new-variant-found-2326471/

Romanians are half-ignoring their goverment relaxing restrictions and continuing with widespread face coverings and keeping shop visits short. (euronews tv)

 

[Pale Rider]

Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?

This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.

They are only taking advantage of no cancellation fees offered by venues, but their conduct strikes me as more selfish than sensible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57155307

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Taking the wider view:

It looks as though worldwide, deaths are falling and never quite reached the previous January peak. The spring resurgence was driven by India, and looks to have been hugely exacerbated by the new variant there. India remains appalling, and we'll see if that variant drives a further resurgence beyond India next; it's by no means obvious, though still possible, that worldwide "peak COVID" was passed in January.

Europe and North America are the good news story where the vaccine rollout together with restrictions has the virus consistently in retreat, and unless immune escape variants emerge, we can be confident the epidemic will not re-emerge to previous levels.

South America is awful (the worst of all the continents on a per-population basis), close to an all time high with no obvious end in sight.

Africa has the appearance of not being problematic, though to what extent reporting is reliable is highly questionable.

We need to get vaccines to the world. Pfizer have made $15bn, and their vaccine is now proved stable refrigerated. Action to make this and all the other vaccines manufactured and affordable to everybody is imperative.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?

This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.

They are only taking advantage of no cancellation fees offered by venues, but their conduct strikes me as more selfish than sensible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57155307

There was a story yesterday about how travel companies are extremely worried about this; having offered "no cancellation fees" bookings right up to on the day, the fear is that there will be a tsunami of cancellations at the last minute. Meanwhile, people can't find anywhere to stay.

 

[matticus]

India remains appalling,
<snippage>

South America is awful (the worst of all the continents on a per-population basis), close to an all time high with no obvious end in sight.

Africa has the appearance of not being problematic, though to what extent reporting is reliable is highly questionable.

I am somewhat concerned that those 3 areas may all have dreadful under-reporting. Time will tell. It may not affect us much here in the 1st World with our vaccines and so on, but we live in a global economy now ...

 

[lazybloke]

Right to question it. Seems you have the @lazybloke answer already. Oh, and what was the lesson? Don't delay decisions? Or what? What's the plan in leafy Surrey? Make some suggestions.

The single most important thing I'd do differently is to stop making ridiculously optimistic promises that can't be kept. Eg a "normal Christmas/ summer, or an irreversible roadmap out of lockdown".
Every time a promise is broken it puts a massive dent in compliance with restrictions; just look at the new year spike.

There's no clear sign that the pandemic will be ended by the current vaccines, so a future lockdown is possible, or even likely.


I'd have done several things differently over recent months. Here's a list, some are opportunities that were clear policy misses at the time (ie not with the benefit of hindsight). Others are options that could have been (and may have been) considered.

• Not allow students back to colleges last September
  Perhaps the most likely cohort of society to mix, students were allowed to travel across the country back to colleges. It seemed reckless at the time, so the resulting spikes of infections in student digs were no surprise.
• Not rush to reopen schools
  When vaccinations had barely started, the mixing of generations was still a significant infection risk but schools were forced to reopen. For me personally, that meant my family & support bubble of 5 was now exposed indirectly to 1,500 other children (all unvaccinated and mixing in an indoor environment).
• Masks in schools
  With community transmission of the Indian variant proved within numerous UK localities, why has the masks requirement been dropped in classrooms this week? Pupils are still the single largest unvaccinated cohort of UK society and are still forced into small indoor spaces together. How many children will suffer Long covid (or worse) as a result of this policy decision?
• Act more quickly in the face of emerging risks
  On 2nd April it was announced that Pakistan would soon go onto the red list, because infections had risen to over 5,000 the previous day. India had seen 81,000 infections but didn't go onto the red list for another three weeks! Why the inconsistent approach? Why are people given several days of grace to return from red list countries before restrictions kick in?
  It should be a publicly stated policy that Red list restrictions be enforced without any grace period. So anyone travelling to an amber country should perhaps have to show they have the ability to pay for quarantine hotel in case the worst happens; maybe even pay a deposit prior to travel.
• Reduce all travel to reduce exposure to ALL variants (known and unknown)
  A colleague managed to fly for a holiday a day after restrictions were imposed; the airline weren't interested in enforcing restrictions; that wasn't their role. People apparently continued to travel without penalty until the government finally announced a fine for unnecessary travel in late March. I've not seen any stats to know how effectively those fines have been used.
  Is it wise to permit holiday travel now, especially when airports are allowing red list and green list passngers to mix in the arrivals halls for hours at a time? chap on TV said it's not for airports to pay to keep red and green travellers separate. Why not? Airports should not be permitted to open unless they exercise a duty of care to passengers.
• Tighter border controls
  Did incoming lorry drivers bring variants into the country? Hard to know, because the UK didn't bother testing incoming drivers until only very recently, so a clear picture might not have emerged from the stats yet.
  Some commentators have said the UK is too reliant on food imports to close borders (unlike Australia), but why does food need to be accompanied all the way to a UK destination by the same driver? Deliveries could be handed-off by drivers at ports and collected by a local driver at the UK ports.
• Give a consistent message
  If there's one thing this government does terribly, it's communication with the public. Mixed messaging ranging from the Barnard Castle debacle to confusion this week about the meaning of permitted travel. The PM and his ministers need to give the same clear message, and get away from the nonsense of " you can go to pubs but be careful, you can hug granny but don't, you travel to France but shouldn't, etc".

We're warned a 3rd wave is inevitable. I expect Boris is content to assume it won't be nearly as bad as the previous wave, and he'll only react if the stats become alarming. In other words, he reacts to issues rather that risks. If I took that approach in my one of my cybersecurity assignments I'd quickly be out of a job. It's astonishing that 127,000 deaths isn't seen as a dismal failure.
Especially when we look other island nations such as Iceland and Australia, and see exactly how poor the UK response has been.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Anyone tempted to book two holidays for the same time?

This couple has Portugal as the preferred destination with Norfolk as a back up.

They are only taking advantage of no cancellation fees offered by venues, but their conduct strikes me as more selfish than sensible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57155307

No but I'm not remotely surprised that people do this. It's said to be a huge problem week in week out for the Caravan and Motor Home Club where people book sites they may not take up and cancel penalty free a week before.

There will be a sudden glut of UK accom available at short notice in July and owners, who took remunerative bookings in good faith, will be left with a fire sale to at least cover their costs.

 

[matticus]

...
Especially when we look other island nations such as Iceland and Australia, and see exactly how poor the UK response has been.

Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!

 

[MrGrumpy]

Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!

It could have and should have had full control of its borders though !? Foreign holidays and eat out to help out I recall was the main reasons for the rise in cases last Autumn. However here we are again, folk booking holidays again and complaining about about unable to go or quarantining. The message should have been no foreign travel unless absolutely necessary at least for this year.

 

[Ajax Bay]

let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia

Air travellers through UK = 300M plus
Air travellers through/to/from Australia = 9M
(Normal times)
But I agree with @MrGrumpy last sentence. I'd still like an insight into the range of reasons 20,000 people needed to fly into UK from India in a week in April.
On the plus side, I'm very much looking forward to seeing my nonagenarian mother for the first time in seven months (she lives in UK too) tomorrow.

 

[matticus]

It could have and should have had full control of its borders though !?

Why are you telling ME this? Did you actually read my post??

<Puts on King Canute costume. Again ... >

 

[Ajax Bay]

Foreign holidays and eat out to help out I recall was the main reasons for the rise in cases last Autumn.

May I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
And, with moderate uncertainty, the seasonal effect of moving into autumn will have been a 'main reason' Current modelling assesses (makes reasonable assumptions) that as 10-20%.
EOTHO:
"A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
A Treasury spokesperson rejected the economist’s findings. “We do not recognise these figures – which, as the study itself admits, are ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations. Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.”

 

[Eric Olthwaite]

Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.

This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

May I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
And, with moderate uncertainty, the seasonal effect of moving into autumn will have been a 'main reason' Current modelling assesses (makes reasonable assumptions) that as 10-20%.
EOTHO:
"A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
A Treasury spokesperson rejected the economist’s findings. “We do not recognise these figures – which, as the study itself admits, are ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations. Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.”

1. Cases rose throughout the summer once restrictions were at their minimum.

2. Schools return likely significant as well as universities.

3. The "Kent variant" was first detected in a sample from Sept but likely not significant until Nov/Dec

4. Genomic testing suggested significant import from travellers last summer https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...n-from-spain-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-study

To deconvolute all contributions is impossible, but it is uncontroversial that indoor mixing is high risk and EOTHO subsidised that.