roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Different countries in Europe had widely differing
For the second wave, different in what way?
Different countries in Europe had widely differing
For the second wave, different in what way?
This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.
For example, Italy re-opened bars and restaurants in mid-May. The second wave didn't occur until 4-5 months later.
Not so; cases in Italy rose consistently from early July.
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I don't know what restrictions were in place when, but the *strategy* seems very similar to the UK, as does the outcome: restrictions were lifted as cases fell, then cases rose when restrictions were lifted.
A log scale shows this much more clearly than linear plots do, which obscure exponential growth at low absolute numbers.
I must have missed discussion of island nations - dare I do a search?Agreed with most of your post, but pretty please, let's not go back to saying the UK is an island nation just like Australia!!!
If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".This. Different countries in Europe had widely differing strategies, and virtually all of them saw a second wave in the autumn.
Ok maybe not the whole reason but it did add to itMay I ask you to share on what that recollection is based? Were these the main reasons?
Certainly back in February 2020, people returning from the continent was the main conduit for virus import (rather than from China or other areas where outbreaks had been reported). But in the autumn of 2020?
I suggest that the necessary travel and attendance and new residence of hundreds of thousands of students at their new colleges/universities must be well up there as a 'main reason'.
Another 'main reason' was the emergence (didn't recognise it for some time) of the VoC variant B.1.1.7 with significantly higher transmissibility (with a fully susceptible population, unlike in May 2021 btw).
And, with moderate uncertainty, the seasonal effect of moving into autumn will have been a 'main reason' Current modelling assesses (makes reasonable assumptions) that as 10-20%.
EOTHO:
"A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
A Treasury spokesperson rejected the economist’s findings. “We do not recognise these figures – which, as the study itself admits, are ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations. Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases, irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced.”
If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".
Then look at countries that actually did well, and have a think about what they did differently.
Sure; those different characteristics would be important in the initial shape of how the pandemic affects each country, but then each government must respond appropriately (and learn lessons along the way to refine that response).IMO, it is less about what they did differently than it is about what different inherent characteristics they have.
Ok maybe not the whole reason but it did add to it
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285
If you want to compare to other Europen countries, feel free to wallow in conclusions of "we all faced the same problems".
Then look at countries that actually did well, and have a think about what they did differently.
The usually cautions about different reporting standards and methods should be remembered. Headline numbers are not all directly comparable.The European comparator data is interesting in this context.
Not disagreeing with that in any way, all because of our early access to the AZ vacccine; a fantastic success story.I don't think you can say at this stage which countries did well until the course of the pandemic ends globally.
According to Worldometer we are now in 17th place re deaths/million population (high to low) and steadily dropping down the rankings.