mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
I remembered to snap ours today. Track on the left is NCN1, one curving to the right goes to a housing estate.
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I agree with you. But ... I would add a couple of things to this.
The early start of the vaccination programme was used as pro-Brexit propaganda in the UK (please sir, they started it!), and also caused ripples across Europe when it appeared the EU programme was a disaster. As Bexit was not exactly accompanied by honesty and integrity and the idea circulated the UK vaccination campaign had been aided by Brexit, which was untrue, it is difficult to resist the temptation to point this out.
None of this has been helped by inaccurate and spun press reporting. With hindsight British 'success' and EU 'failure' have both been exaggerated, though are not wholly untrue. And it did look initially as though nationalism had paid off, whereas the idea of cooperation to ensure the rich don't hog supplies had done harm, caused delays. The latter concept of cooperation is worth defending against the former, and is now paying off across continental Europe for the smaller and less wealthy nations.
What ought to be simply a medical issue has become politicised, often with disastrous consequences as seen in the USA, Brazil and a lesser extent the initial response by the UK. Populists who could not cope with the seriousness of the situation, unwilling or unable to accept expert opinion. There are still Americans who believe the pandemic is a hoax and excuse for Big Government!
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I said, on the 'vaccine' thread: "And unless this variant outcompetes the B.1.1.7 (no evidence of that), is more lethal (no evidence of that) or evades the vaccines (no evidence of that) the numbers saved [from dying but serious illness too] will be very few."
Recent assessment is not good news, so not surprised the PM shared his concern last Friday.
B.1.617.2 in England (cumulative 520 to 1313 genomic tests in 7 days) with clusters in Bolton, Blackburn and Hyndburn (North West cluster) as well as Sefton, Bedford, and London, and otherwise cases UK-widely but thinly spread. All of this points to B.1.617.2 outcompeting B.1.1.7 VoC. SPI-M-O now estimates that B.1.617.2 could have a transmission advantage of 50% over B.1.1.7. But from the UK’s experience with the sure and not so slow rise of B.1.1.7 to dominance by Christmas, higher transmission will mean more cases for the same control measures. Modelling presented to SAGE has this as a sensitivity variation to its central assumption/estimate. In other terms, the more this variant spreads the higher the effective R number (for a given set of NPIs (restrictions on behaviour etc)). Effectively, the expected wave of cases in the summer will have a higher peak than had the B.1.617.2 variant not been introduced.
Recent assessment is not good news, so not surprised the PM shared his concern last Friday.
B.1.617.2 in England (cumulative 520 to 1313 genomic tests in 7 days) with clusters in Bolton, Blackburn and Hyndburn (North West cluster) as well as Sefton, Bedford, and London, and otherwise cases UK-widely but thinly spread. All of this points to B.1.617.2 outcompeting B.1.1.7 VoC. SPI-M-O now estimates that B.1.617.2 could have a transmission advantage of 50% over B.1.1.7. But from the UK’s experience with the sure and not so slow rise of B.1.1.7 to dominance by Christmas, higher transmission will mean more cases for the same control measures. Modelling presented to SAGE has this as a sensitivity variation to its central assumption/estimate. In other terms, the more this variant spreads the higher the effective R number (for a given set of NPIs (restrictions on behaviour etc)). Effectively, the expected wave of cases in the summer will have a higher peak than had the B.1.617.2 variant not been introduced.
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
How this works out in UK will depend on vaccine efficacy and the number of people vaccinated. No vaccine is 100% effective and vaccine breakthroughs happen. The rationale for getting the second jabs into the over 50s (all JCVI Phase 1 (Gps 1-9)) is that the 20% (?) increased effectiveness (against severe disease in particular) thus afforded may overmatch the B.1.617.2 variant’s evasion (if any – there is no evidence either way). Vaccines have worked against all other variants to date and assuming that this is the case for B.1.617.2, the number of infection cases may be more but the incidence of severe disease will still be far lower than in an unvaccinated population. Nevertheless the avoidance of infections of lesser severity remain important because of the risk of long covid. There is no evidence that the disease caused by B.1.617.2 is more severe: no data yet.
This circumstance might reasonably be styled as a race between variant (with higher transmissibility) spread and population vaccination rate: one we were winning against B.1.1.7 but a new rider is trying to bridge the gap (been watching too much Giro d’Italia?). The virus will be helped by eased restrictions and hindered by summer temperatures and local control measures (testing, contact tracing, isolation). We have a start: we’ve vaccinated 2/3 of the adult population and will soon be over ¾. The progress of this variant will be critical in the next 3 weeks and will inform the decision on the timing of UK’s final relaxation of restrictions, no earlier than 21 Jun (VoC emergence is one of the four ‘tests’ – data not dates). Other countries haven’t got the start we have so they’ll be keen to restrict its import. Expecting further relaxations on foreign travel restrictions is optimistic.
This circumstance might reasonably be styled as a race between variant (with higher transmissibility) spread and population vaccination rate: one we were winning against B.1.1.7 but a new rider is trying to bridge the gap (been watching too much Giro d’Italia?). The virus will be helped by eased restrictions and hindered by summer temperatures and local control measures (testing, contact tracing, isolation). We have a start: we’ve vaccinated 2/3 of the adult population and will soon be over ¾. The progress of this variant will be critical in the next 3 weeks and will inform the decision on the timing of UK’s final relaxation of restrictions, no earlier than 21 Jun (VoC emergence is one of the four ‘tests’ – data not dates). Other countries haven’t got the start we have so they’ll be keen to restrict its import. Expecting further relaxations on foreign travel restrictions is optimistic.
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
We're back in hospitality-business-destroying bull shoot land again, aren't we? Go out but don't go out, stay home but save your pubs, you can drink indoors but shouldn't.
Pubs and cafes are now allowed to open fully, but Boris says "take this next step with a heavy dose of caution" and "We will not be preventing businesses from reopening on Monday, but we will be asking you to do your bit" with many bits of government saying it is an "appeal to everyone not to let their guard down yet" and "if people get too carried away, we could jeopardise the ability to reopen [...] I think there has to be a degree of common sense, a bit of caution and people shouldn’t be running away being too exuberant".
Surely if we've learnt anything about "common sense" in 2020, it's that it isn't as common as needed to limit the spread of covid? Relaxing restrictions while telling people not to use those relaxations is a failure to take responsibility, a failure to care for public health, a failure to govern. I feel like they're lining us up for blaming sections of the public yet again if cases rise and unlocking is delayed or even restrictions return in some areas.
Now I don my fireproof undies and await a parade of government supporters saying why it's wrong to point out the similarities with the failed "you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues" advice of 16th March 2020, I'm somehow just against Boris because of his party, and ignoring my support for some of this government's policies.
Pubs and cafes are now allowed to open fully, but Boris says "take this next step with a heavy dose of caution" and "We will not be preventing businesses from reopening on Monday, but we will be asking you to do your bit" with many bits of government saying it is an "appeal to everyone not to let their guard down yet" and "if people get too carried away, we could jeopardise the ability to reopen [...] I think there has to be a degree of common sense, a bit of caution and people shouldn’t be running away being too exuberant".
Surely if we've learnt anything about "common sense" in 2020, it's that it isn't as common as needed to limit the spread of covid? Relaxing restrictions while telling people not to use those relaxations is a failure to take responsibility, a failure to care for public health, a failure to govern. I feel like they're lining us up for blaming sections of the public yet again if cases rise and unlocking is delayed or even restrictions return in some areas.
Now I don my fireproof undies and await a parade of government supporters saying why it's wrong to point out the similarities with the failed "you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues" advice of 16th March 2020, I'm somehow just against Boris because of his party, and ignoring my support for some of this government's policies.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
I think you speculated in the past about a seasonal effect, possibly UV or temperature (but please excuse me if that is wrong) or maybe indirectly through people meeting indoors less. It feels like this spring/summer has been gloomier and colder in the UK than last year. Can you tell if there's been any effect on covid spread, or perhaps is it dwarfed by all the other changes? Are there any developments on this thinking from other countries?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Seasonality and its impact on COVID-19
Joint NERVTAG/ EMG Working Group - 21stOctober 2020
Executive summary [my precis with Vitamin D supplement]
• A combination of factors are likely to combine to exacerbate the epidemic of COVID-19 during the winter months.
• Changes in behaviour are expected to occur. Individuals spend longer indoors during the winter, and ventilation rates in buildings are lower (medium confidence).
•Over the next 6-12 months [from Oct 2020] changes in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility (unrelated to seasonal factors) are likely to dominate the epidemiology. Susceptibility (which has now been massively by vaccination) is likely to have a much bigger impact on transmission than environmental factors (high confidence).
Edit: And I thought this gave a good overview (there are pictures, maps and graphs!): Could COVID-19 Have Seasons? Searching for Signals in Earth Data
“For SARS-CoV-2, it is too early to say,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist “But if I were to put money on it, I would bet that there is seasonality to this virus and that, like with influenza and the endemic betacoronaviruses, it will track with environmental conditions such as temperature and especially absolute humidity.”
Joint NERVTAG/ EMG Working Group - 21stOctober 2020
Executive summary [my precis with Vitamin D supplement]
• A combination of factors are likely to combine to exacerbate the epidemic of COVID-19 during the winter months.
- continued susceptibility of the population,
- the direct effect of environmental variables (such as temperature, humidity and UV light)
- the indirect effect of poor weather leading to people spending more time indoors
• Changes in behaviour are expected to occur. Individuals spend longer indoors during the winter, and ventilation rates in buildings are lower (medium confidence).
•Over the next 6-12 months [from Oct 2020] changes in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility (unrelated to seasonal factors) are likely to dominate the epidemiology. Susceptibility (which has now been massively by vaccination) is likely to have a much bigger impact on transmission than environmental factors (high confidence).
Edit: And I thought this gave a good overview (there are pictures, maps and graphs!): Could COVID-19 Have Seasons? Searching for Signals in Earth Data
“For SARS-CoV-2, it is too early to say,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist “But if I were to put money on it, I would bet that there is seasonality to this virus and that, like with influenza and the endemic betacoronaviruses, it will track with environmental conditions such as temperature and especially absolute humidity.”
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Now even the Telegraph is questioning the dither-and-delay habits https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...naction-let-indian-variant-take-hold-britain/
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I can't believe a man of your integrity accesses the Daily Telegraph, let alone quotes it.
It's behind a paywall. Does it say anything new? An insight into the difficult decision making process perhaps. If I recall one of the contemporary political issues was the UK-India trade talks progress.
Decisions can be made quickly in an authoritarian state. Mercifully the UK isn't that.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
No paywall here. Example paragraphs: "Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, was determined to press ahead with a planned visit to India on April 25.
"The plan was that he would be able to announce that early discussions were now under way over a new trade deal. But as more and more data from India began to ring alarm bells, he came under pressure to call off the trip. Downing Street eventually pulled the plug on April 19, on the same day Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, told the House of Commons that India would also be added to the red list – but only from 4am on April 23.
"This was despite Downing Street having briefed journalists when the scheme was first unveiled that countries could be added "at a few hours' notice"."
There is another article added to The Telegraph site today claiming that the UK has become an authoritarian state, but it is an opinion piece that I don't think stands up to scrutiny!
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
I would imagine most on here have heard it all before, I know I certainly have, and won't be bothered picking a fight.
As I've said in the past if people feel it's too early to go to the pub inside, theatre, cinema etc etc then no-ones forcing them to.
If people you know are and you feel unsafe meeting those people then don't, I think what's being said is go out but don't go mad.
It's up to the individual.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Better than that from this:
"an observational study of vaccinated healthcare workers to evaluate the frequency of 'Break Through Infection' (infections after vaccination) of COVID-19 published by the Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, Delhi found that 97% were protected from infection and the chance of hospitalisation was 0.06%."
Vaccine was "Covishield" - the Oxford-AZ vaccine made under licence at SII Puna.
(This study, being an observational one, lacks the rigour of RCT but the results are within 90% confidence intervals of other estimates of Oxford-Az vaccine efficacy.)
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Well I've just got back from the local and it was brilliant to be back inside, also got tickets for our last home game so all in all things are looking up.
